Global Wheat Forecast from 2023-06 to 2025-06

WEAT may increase soon; however there is still a lot of downward pressure from the massive peak in recent years.

Therefore, prices may dip a little further, then increase soon (in 2023 and 2024). I do not want to go in great detail about the price effects from harsh climate shifts, however this topic can shift the prices as so can supply-line restraints.

At the time of this posting, the climate shifts are more of a factor for a possible increase in the price. However, the supply-line restraints that generated the 2022 peak are still fading; which is still causing the heavy downward pressure.

This is down and up pressure can stabilize the prices in the short-run. For the long-run, the prices will very likely increase after the bottom is formed.

Zoom in for a better view.

Comment:

If and only if supply-line restraints return and harsh climate shifts occur within the same year, then this could push prices higher. If inflation strikes in the same year, then this can push prices even higher.

There are many outside variables that can shift the price at any time.

Comment:

The supply reduction of oil by Saudi Arabia and the increase in demand for oil during summer vacationing combined may increase the logistics costs; which can place upward pressure on the global price of Wheat. Climate change can also add to this upward price pressure.

Comment:

News Update: "Moscow has repeatedly said it sees little chance of agreeing an extension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative beyond July 18, because it says Western sanctions are thwarting its own U.N.-backed attempts to export both grain and fertilizer."

News Source: "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/if-grain-deal-ends-un-pledge-russian-exports-will-go-russian-official-2023-06-19/"

Comment:

Depending on the Black Sea Grain Initiative renewal status, there may be an increase in Wheat prices after 2023-07-18. If the grain deal is renewed, then the price of Wheat may remain more stabilized (balanced).

Comment:

News Update:
"It is impossible to update this deal, and under these conditions, I believe, it is also impossible to extend it because the limit of our patience and desire to implement it has been exhausted," Interfax news agency cited the speaker of the upper house of parliament, Valentina Matviyenko, as saying.

News Source:
"https://www.thedailystar.net/news/world/news/black-sea-grain-deal-cant-be-extended-russia-3348031"

Comment:

News Update:
18 Jun, 2023: “It’s hardly possible to predict some sort of a final decision here, but we can only state that – judging de facto by the status that we now have – this deal has no chance,” Peskov explained.
News Source:
"https://www.rt.com/russia/578225-grain-deal-ukraine-peskov/"

Comment:

After seeing these official grain disagreement updates, I expect the price of Wheat to increase.

Comment:

Global Wheat Forecast from 2023-06 to 2025-06 daily extra zoom view (click chart and play for updates). This daily chart below is a closer (zoomed in) look at the very similar weekly forecast.

Comment:

still on target

Comment:

still on target (greater challenges in the Red Sea now)