Gpap90

Wish has been sold & they lived happily ever after

Long
NASDAQ:WISH   ContextLogic Inc
My latest conviction is that wish has been sold maybe before it even did an IPO.
Here's the game plan
1. VC's that have been to WISH (close to 10 years) needed to do an IPO so they would cash out their position and return the money to the funds, since there is a policy to close the fund 10 years after inception. (https://pitchbook.com/news/articles/the-...) wish fund series (https://app.dealroom.co/companies/wish)
2. Because they had a very big position they had to find someone to buy their stake ASAP so they did the reddit/short mania thing that we witnessed on June. Peter Thiel's fund was the one that sold everything and if i am not mistaken 100m shares.
3. Then retail jumped in and they burned everyone's options to the ground month after month, at the same time time institutionals start loading more and more. I will wait for the latest report to see how much they have accumulated so far, if they have added a significant amount of shares i will triple down my position no matter the price.
4. Insiders selling mostly due to tax reasons, the few that are aware there is a buyout thoeretically should not sell any more in 2022 besides for tax purposes
5. If there is a buyout from a big company they would probably want their guys to start running the company well before the deal will be announced, that's why all C-level executives & board members have been resigned
6. Now the tricky thing is when it will be announced... i suspect 2-4Qs from now, if you can recall last year the company said that the results of the new strategy will be visible only after Q2 of 2022. Guess what? this is when the company will show signs of a turnaround and the next 2Qs till the end of the year will be outstanding. Therefore the company will have proved in a way that things are working ( so for the buyer to justify their purchase to their shareholders)
7. Price? if we take for granted that wish will be doing around $2b next year and at the same time shows signs of a turnaround i would expect
a) low range 4-6 x sales = $12.43-$18.65
b) medium range 6-8 x sales = $18.65 - $24.87
c) high range 8-10 x sales = $24.85 - $31.09 (close to ATH and where Jackie makes all the $$$$$$)
8. Retail i suspect has an average of $8-10 like myself.. retail is the big looser here
a)options expire out of the money week after week
b)a lot of forced liquidations due to margin calls (spacs, retail ipos are all down)
c) scared themselves and sold with a >50% loss
d) the "bagholders" left the ones that gave up and waiting for the "miracle" will probably sell around their average price or even lower especially in the case there is a 100% rally in a matter of a week. I suspect the price in the next 6 months will be in a $4-6 range and after the summer to be around $8-10 and this is where all retail will be gone.
e)the 5-10% of the retail traders will probably HODL till the end.

* A fairy tale by GPAP90
**The above scenario is imaginary
*** Do your own research, this is not a financial advice!

Look First/ Then Leap
Comment: Till summer this one is going to look ugly... if we take into consideration a massive correction coming in all indices it will be no surprise if it hits $1.60 and i think at that price NO RETAIL investor will be left in. Then i would expect a massive rally to $5-6 and a stabilization around there. By the next year if things work out right
1. Better quality control
2. Shipping time reduced
3. Container rates down
4. Inflation cooling off
5. New better platform targeting poor Gen-Z and millennial

It should be around $9-12 by this time next year and then imo there will be a buyout around ipo price i believe.

The thing is that 95-99% of retail will lose money on this trade no matter how it plays out.

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