A L/T look at $XAG suggest a protracted correction in the shape of an , based on:
1 - A deep correction from a 49.780 high reached on April 25th, 2011.
2 - Internal alternations of 5-3-5-3-5 waves, identifying the overall pattern as an EW's .
Apart for the wave count, the predictive/forecasting model eyes the following target:
- TG-Lo = 9.655 - 20 OCT 2014
While the scale of the chart might appear difficult to trade to retail traders, the emphasis here is put on a bias that is not simply based on a sustained born in 2011, but also on the wave count expectation of a termination at Point-5 and a separate predictive/forecasting model that defines a target at 9.655.
A limited upside exists in the near interim, as price could attempt a shallow rally to 18.191, corresponding to a significant line-up of a then-triple support, turned now-resistance. This interim rally might occur following the recent sustained downtrend that developed since Point-4.
Look for a correlating action in the to confirm these alternative moves between resistance and support in price.
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So that there is no confusion here, the first IMP move I have highlighted corresponds to two separate impulses separated by an internal TZ. However, I have discounted the internals of this first IMP simply because the first internal IMP could not possibly be standing on its own in the face of a dominant bullish impulse.
Instead, this IMP has to be part of a more complex correction, which is why I let it be defined as part of a IMP-COR-IMP which defined Wave-1 - Following is what the internal would look like in Wave-1, compared to its original construction below:
This might be a bit of a TMI moment here, but some true Ellioticians are certainly going to ask themselves a similar line of reason. and Elliotician-glot I am not. I speak with a strong technical accent too, but one of a geometric dialect at the antipod of the wave world.
NOTE: I also added a 25.097 level corresponding to a lesser-degree Wave-4, an area that carries a significant structural importance in EWP if and whenever price revisits this level ... It might take a while - David
The price action was so distorted that it required that I defined "worst-case scenario" targets at the extreme limits of the predictive model. Still, it provides some insight on what might be happening to $AUD, $CAD, and $NZD.
Enjoy and thank you for following!
1 - The target is a nominal one, so the probability is LOWER compared to a numerical target (i.e.: TG-1, TG-2, TG-3, ... TG-n).
2 - However, there are several other influences that support added downside, besides the fundamentals:
a -- Model remains bearish throughout
b -- Pattern calls for a bearish reach to complete the presumed background market geometry
c -- Wave pattern calls for an impulse, forcing price to lower lows.
The invalidation condition would require that current price reverses and surpasses the level of Point-3 in the pattern @ 18.191. Added confirmation of a probable failed bearish venture would also come from price breaking and closing above the 2-4 Line. From the model, I would want to see an early market reversal sign first.
OVERALL, the trend remains down and the target based on the model. Combined with fundamentals, geometries and wave count, there is little indication of a bullish reversal at this point.
$XAGUSD moved per forecast; Now carving new low; 9.655 target remain intact:
@tradingview | $XAG $USD $SLV $XAU
Although the original bearish directional bias remains in force in the WEEKLY timeframe, adverse excursions are bound to occur in smaller frames, offering the M15-to-H4 dweller room to consider opportunities.
Looking at the M15 level, price is wingling itself out of rising wedge. Markers on either side of the geometry could be considered as conservative trigger levels towards their respective nominal targets, namely TG-Lo and TG-Hi.
I recommend staying away from M15 timeframes, as the predictive/forecasting system is best calibrated to perform at the synthetic H4 level (i.e.: where aggregate retail plus institutional action meets). However, if you must respond to some compulsory limbic demands, simply beware.
My interest in the $XAG and XAU remains peripheral to Forex, but I will consider moves in these metals as a correlation force affecting $AUD, $CAD, $CHF and $EUR positively, and $USD inversely.
If the question relates to silver/gold correlation, I would not be able to provide any intelligent comment on this. I would refer you to a trader here who brokers these metals. He follows my trades and comments, so I let him take it up from here.
Feel free to repost comment/question if I can be of any help.
$XAGUSD hit its bearish target at 15.292; lower-degree #elliottwave correction now in play:
@tradingview $XAG $USD
As indicated in the analysis, a trigger level had to be reached first before committing price to a directional bias. Here, the lower trigger in the M15 chart was hit where defined, and price rolled to its bearish target.
Looking at a smaller-degree level in terms of Elliott Wave Principles, a correction is underway for the moment (Point-4 is left ghosted). Once this correction is complete, expect an impulsive formation to define the larger bearish impulse (of which points 3, 4 and 5 are defined in purple).
There are several possibilities at this point, but as mentioned before, you may recall that our timeframe of interest here is much larger, wherein an abysmal target dwells in the single digit, as defined by the original predictive/forecasting analysis. Thsi supposes that the "trade winds" generated at the institutional levels remain in force, and any rallying is expected to be limited.
Here is the larger timeframe for reference:
$XAGUSD - Predictive/forecasting model's BEARISH target remain in force at 9.655:
@tradingview | $XAG $USD #forex