4xForecaster
Short

Silver Lining Up For Dull Move | $XAG $USD $SILV #silver $XAU

FX:XAGUSD   Silver/U.S. Dollar
Traders,


ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT:

A L/T look at $XAG suggest a protracted bearish correction in the shape of an Elliott Wave Leading Diagonal , based on:

1 - A deep correction from a 49.780 high reached on April             25th, 2011.

and

2 - Internal alternations of 5-3-5-3-5 waves, identifying the overall pattern as an EW's Leading Diagonal .


PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL;

Apart for the wave count, the predictive/forecasting model eyes the following target:

- TG-Lo = 9.655 - 20 OCT 2014


OVERALL:

While the scale of the chart might appear difficult to trade to retail traders, the emphasis here is put on a bearish bias that is not simply based on a sustained bearish trend born in 2011, but also on the wave count expectation of a termination at Point-5 and a separate predictive/forecasting model that defines a bearish target at 9.655.

A limited upside exists in the near interim, as price could attempt a shallow rally to 18.191, corresponding to a significant line-up of a then-triple support, turned now-resistance. This interim rally might occur following the recent sustained downtrend that developed since Point-4.

Look for a correlating action in the RSI to confirm these alternative moves between resistance and support in price.

Cheers,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA


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Twitter: @4xForecaster
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David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: MarketPredictiveAnalysis@gmail.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
15 DEC 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
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$XAGUSD: Elastic correlation with $XAU likely to cause snap latency to 9.655 forecast:

snapshot


$XAG $XAU $Gold $SLV $USD
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snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
09 NOV 2014 - Quick Note:

Just got back from my long commute across the Rockies. So, sorry if it seems that I overlook some of the comments here; I do not mean to ignore anyone.

A quick note though on the forecasts I provide:

First, the values I post are generated from an algorithm I developed several years ago. I have since posted enough analysis as to generate good, reliable results. It also generated a lot of nasty comments.

For instance, when BTCUSD was in its loftiest values, I posted that it would fall to the 400, and perhaps the levels. I received lots of insulting comments on that board. But look at where it is now.

Recently, when the $SPY was at its lowest, Elliott Wave International Ellioticians suggested that price was pulling back. I sent these pros an email, suggesting that the model saw a higher-high in $USDJPY, $ES, as well as $SPY. I never received a comment on that, but here too, look at there price is: A new high was carved out.

In this community, I posted a forecast on $GBPUSD generated from the model. Here too, the comment made by one individual was that is was "bound" to hit its stop-loss. Here again, price went in the forecast direction.


What I want to emphasize here is that trading is a personal endeavor. One cannot simply have a "feeling", or "believe that price will go here or there", or that one has "an opinion" about a specific direction.

In other words, what I post is neither a feeling, nor a belief or an opinion about a directional move. It is simply what the model says it sees. You will notice that my analysis will post as objective a statement as possible, and not one that would imply a belief, or a hope. It will often say: "Model eyes xxx.xx" or "model defines xxx.xx".

As a technician, I use the model's forecast as a foreground feature, and in the background, I will try to build a technical rationale using standard, trendlines, basic geometric patterns, or advanced Scott Carney's patterns, or my own prop patterns in a well defined "Pattern Analysis" segment of the analysis. In a separate analysis, I would also add "Fundamental Analysis", but only if it pertains to a central bank decision, or a committed fundamental information from an official source. In yet another segment, I would likely add a description on "Elliott Wave Analysis" if the pattern comes to sight and is easily definable, so as to not over-inflate my position as a mere wave counter, in contrast to more astute Ellioticians out there. In a final segment, I would also develop the "Predictive Analysis & Forecasting", defining both numerical and nominal targets.

My point here is that all that I offer is a detailed, objective analysis in support of the predictive/forecasting model.

The exercise that fails most traders is the fear of being wrong, by concentrating on a technical narrative that support a desired directional bias. What I mean here is that, whenever I post a target, I simply let the model define a direction, a strength, and a level of S/R or reversal. My opinion may at times be contrary to that defined target, but it matters less than the opportunity for the model to be wrong, for all errors only add an incremental level of refinement in the model's algorithmic verses.

I know that posting opinions is a hard task for any trader, which is why I will post as objective an analysis as possible, because the endurance and pain of being wrong is simply too great and too humiliating, even though one may draw lessons from such dolor. Yet, one cannot live long enough to make all the allowable mistakes that the market can teach. This is why I recommend traders to develop their own trading plans, refine it over time, and once ready, to simply plan a trade and trade that plan.

I appreciate all the challenging thoughts here, but I have no intelligent reply except the advantage of time, which offers the narrative of what is truly happening. If it deviates from my algorithm, which is does historically at about 20% of the time, then I can pull the hood up and look into the engine and tweak a few things. But if it deviates from an directional feeling, belief or opinion, then the trader has to wonder whether feelings should instead be replaced by an objective set of rules to generate an algorithm-based plan.

The worst thing one can do in trading is not as much as earning profits by chance, which is undeserved, but be right for the wrong reason, as it will only enforce a wrong approach, and delay the chance to stay apart and emotionally uninvolved with the directional bias which a system will define for you. Trick is to develop that system in time.

Cheers,

David Alcindor
+1 Reply
Sokun 4xForecaster
Well said! Beatiful honet words where none is needed. Gassho David! Your compassion is timeless!
+1 Reply
Sokun 4xForecaster
Any possibility of charting the ffiner time frame please David. Gassho
+1 Reply
mkdeep04 4xForecaster
hats off to u..
+1 Reply
Sokun 4xForecaster
Any new comments ? Gassho David!
Reply
Sokun 4xForecaster
Any smaller time frames David? Or mkdeep? Gassho
Reply
David, I have gone over my chart from various different possibilities and have taken a view of larger picture and I think it might help clear the some details. I have just published the chart Link The snapshot below
+1 Reply
As usual, this and every other gold/silver chart will be wrong.
+1 Reply
Hello David,

My experience with Elliott Wave goes as far as counting to 3...so much for 5-5-3 and zig zags for me!
One thing I can not only speak about but actively trade now Is the metals bottoming. I think anything below 14.50-15$ for silver will be very hard to sustain, and I am not considering macro economical consequences / underlinings.
Maybe if I could understand your arguments a little better I wouldn't be so much convinced, yet what I've been trading with so far just pushed the bullish scenario over 75% probability. I am just waiting for a lower low before year end or snap back over 18.191 to add more on my current positions.
But I agree, traders could easily next level 8-9-10 $ coming in for next support in case of failure to hold 15$...

good luck and thanks for sharing (even if I am sure I am missing most of the Elliott lesson here)

snapshot
+1 Reply
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