QuantitativeExhaustion

Silver Haired Yellen Yells Hi-Ho Silver!

FX:XAGUSD   Silver/U.S. Dollar
369 3 22
I try to look for events that trigger volatility. Well we've got a few events for Friday, US NFP, and next week, newly appointed Fed Cheif Janet Yellen speaks. Right now I believe US NFP will benefit the US Dollar             and by de-facto this will drop Silver             XAGUSD             to near it's lowest levels ($18.20). The following week however, could be very bullish for US markets, gold             and silver             . Yellen came to power on Feb. 01st and took over Ben Bernanke's post as head of US Federal Reserve . Yellen was very concerened about wage stagflation and regarded as a dovish Fed member, even more dovish than Ben Bernanke. On Tuesday, Feb. 11th, Yellen will speak at the American Federation of Labor and Congress of Industrial Organizations (AFL-CIO) in Washington February 11. Yellen will also tesify Feb. 11th - Feb. 13th in front of US Congress. During these speaking events, stocks and metals will do very well.


Silver             Chart -

I posted a 2H chart with fib extensions/retracements looking for confluence/cluster of fib lines. I also noticed recent moves with the descending parallel channel. We had a reaction from the recent breaks of both sides. There is also what some traders refer to as a Wolfe Wave Pattern, although very small. If the Wolfe wave is valid. We should see a 1.618 retrace from the previous bottom, = 18.205. I also published a chart several days ago with a possibility of a truncated 5th wave corrective failure. For a truncated failure to be true, the 3rd EW major corrective wave can not be penetrated (18.193). Not a lot of room if you take a look, and actually there's only a few pips difference.
After running the extensions there are several key meeting areas. First meeting is above the shelf (20.627) at 20.706. I expect very little if any retrace at this fib extensions. Next traget is the 1.618 extension 22.139 which also has a fib cluster at the 6.618 extension. Our thrid target could come with our first significant retrace. Third target is meeting the 2.618 fib extension at 24.585. We could and most likely will retrace to 24.086 /2.414 fib line.

I would also like to add, if the low is breached, it would be a good idea to short the position. Great investors know when to cut-run and switch when they are the wrong side of a trade.

snapshot

Play-by-Play Entry/Exit

Negative Fibonacci extension for long entry in color.
+2 Reply
snapshot

Pick Pocket Line or TKO Line
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carrytrade
2 years ago
Right now we are stuck in divergence on both sides. But the bulls will eventually win out. That's the only reason I could see it drop on more time to sub $19.

But I personally don't think we will see a lower low from this point, as SPX has a very strong weekly reversal, the fear of risk off is gone for now.

I'd be happy to see $18.50 though. I really would. The demand at $19 seemed like the real deal though.
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