AynCzubas

Silver's Near-perfect Post-triangle Thrust vs. Gold's

FX:XAGUSD   Silver/U.S. Dollar
45 2 1
Following the bearish triangle in Silver             ( XAGUSD             ) which unfolded between 2013 and 2014, the expected downward post-triangle thrust target (as measured by the price distance between the origin of its wave "a" and the left-extended upper triangle trendline) was met nearly perfectly at $13.997 in December 2014 (just short of +-$13.76 target, which also happens to be within a few cents of the .786 retracement of the rise from the low of $4.06 in 2001 to the peak of 2011). Assuming that triangle was a 4th wave, the following thrust should have been a 5th and therefore a signal of the end of the impulsive bear wave (at least marking the end of the "A" wave of a total "ABC" correction from the $49 high).

What concerns me though, is that Gold             also concurrently developed a similar triangle, but the following downward thrust did not meet its target by a longshot. I wonder then, if silver             has (at least nearly) bottomed while gold             has not yet. It also occurs to me that the downward spike in December may have ended only the 5th of a 3rd wave: the price movement since then really does seem more corrective than impulsive. In that case, we might be within another 4th wave awaiting a final 5th wave in both metals.

Since December, the price action has been bouncing within a narrowing channel. If it is yet another developing triangle, it can be argued that its waves A,B,C and D have already formed and are implying potential downward thrust of $5.28 or more. However, the high end of the hypothetical wave E would be the point where that downturn would begin (necessarily somewhere under $18.461, or the triangle would be invalidated) and give a clue about the price at which the thrust might end. I suspect that price wants to stay above the .786 retracement level (i.e. $13.844) mentioned above. I also note the acute resistance at around the $18.50 level since 2013, with which the height of wave A of this current triangle formation also coincided in January 2015. If hypothetical wave E of the current triangle should rise to just below the top of wave A before falling, it might result in downward thrust only as far as $13.10, which would be enough to satisfy the 5th wave's need to surpass the 3rd wave's low while only surpassing the .786 retracement (see above) by less than $1 . But here I am getting way ahead of myself...

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AynCzubas
2 years ago
Update to this view: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XAGUSD/8G9Ah04f-XAGUSD-Silver-in-Bearish-Triangle/
XAGUSD Silver in Bearish Triangle?
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AynCzubas
2 years ago
XAGUSD Silver in Bearish Triangle?
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