Silver long term trading opportunity

FX:XAGUSD   Silver/U.S. Dollar
84 0 0
In my post about the USDCAD             on Thursday I already mentioned that my fundamental analysis tells me that we likely see a long term bottom for both Oil             and Silver             within the next 6 months. This is not the information you might like for trading but it is why I started to look for what technical scenario is likely to unfold.

I trade both Oil             and Silver             only long term and for my weekly analysis see below:


From the high of 2011, I consider the whole move corrective. The last couple of weeks we see price moving in a smaller range and this tells me that a reversal is likely about to happen. This will be a big move since we are talking about the weekly time frame.

Focusing on the 4 hour chart shows a comparable pattern, however I think this is a continuation pattern where the weekly shows a structure ending pattern.
The 4 chart shows me a likely triangle to be in progress, I'm not debating what is right or wrong in terms of how you count waves but I personally only consider a triangle relevant when it unfolds at a top or a bottom and therefore I count it from a top or a bottom. In this case this should result in a wave E up to complete the triangle formation. I won't trade this move up but it will tell me something else if it happens. A triangle almost always occurs prior to the final move of the structure. In this case that means that we might see another last leg lower towards 13 and maybe slightly lower.

That's where I will look for a long term buy for that WEEKLY reversal.
I will update this post when it starts to make that move.


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