luke1827
Long

Going for Bullseye | Long Silver | Target AB=CD

FX:XAGUSD   Silver/U.S. Dollar
Update: Stopped at Entry. See comments
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Fellow Risk Takers and Speculators,

NFP #s came out stronger than expected and cause a downward move in Silver             and Gold             . Price action             caught support at the 61.8% fib retracement level of the previous swing from $15.49 to $18.45. What is key here is that this downward price move was mainly driven through the futures market (COMEX Gold             and Silver             ). My speculation is that the physical market will find strong bids here and will unwind some of the futures driven price drop.

From a technical basis:

1. Trendlines | We have clear indication that the upsloping channel has caught much for the price action             moves, the green circles drawn on the chart show the number of times the channel slope has caught the price action             and price finds support or resistance at those points. In the recent move down, we see that price has caught support at the channel floor drawn in with a thick blue up-sloping trendline . I'm looking for prices to stay above this level.

2. Fibonacci Ratios | The 61.8% fib retracement level from the recent swing found support at $16.619 as shown on the chart. This again, acts as support and I'm looking for prices to stay above this level.

3. Fibonacci Extensions or AB=CD | If prices do stay above the support levels indicated by the two points above, we can use a fibonacci extension or AB=CD price movement to forecast possible take profit targets. The first target I'm looking at is based on the 61.8% extension of the major swing from $14 to $18.45. The completion of AB=CD would mark my second target at $21.

Looking for a high reward-to-risk trade here and going for bullseye!

Entry: 16.62
Stop Loss: 16.49
TP1: 19.3
TP2: 21

All the best

Luke
Update - 17 Feb 6:56pm (GMT + 8)

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Fellow Traders,

Previous support along the blue trendline seems to be acting as resistance now.

snapshot


This is an ominous sign and if price cannot break back above the blue trendline, we should be expecting a move downwards. My stop loss has been moved to entry as of 14 Feb and will continue to leave it there.

Luke
Reply
Silver stopped at entry.
Reply
Fellow traders,

Note how Silver is showing strength and that Gold is lagging behind Silver. This is the opposite of what happened throughout August to November 2014 where Silver lagged behind Gold, taking larger price moves downward.

My speculation is that the Gold/Silver ratio might be unwinding a little with Silver showing relative strength over Gold.

I would choose to buy into strength than to buy into weakness. For me, the LONG silver trade exhibits better probabilities in the near term than the LONG gold trade given the price moves seen over the past week.

Luke
Reply
Update - 14 Feb 2:01am (GMT + 8)

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$17.1 has broken through and we have an accelerated move upwards. Encountering short term resistance at the R1 pivot level as shown on chart below. Precise tap seen.

snapshot


I am moving stop loss to entry now.
Reply
Glad you asked Racks :)

Update - 13 Feb 1:13am (GMT + 8)

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The market's reaction to the slew of poor US news releases earlier was small. It seems that investors are getting used to the constant misses in economic data. I had expected Gold and Silver to hold its gains after news but it seems that the market is still uncertain.

From a technical basis:
snapshot


We had a bounce off the downsloping red trendline AND the 61.8 fib level retracement at $16.62 which coincided with our entry point of the trade. We need to see price stay above the blue upsloping trendline. If that trendline becomes resistance, it indicates a move DOWNWARD which would stop us out.

If we look at the Gold Daily chart, it had bounced off an RSI: 40 support level, which similarly it needs to stay above to maintain a bullish outlook.

For more conservative traders, you can choose to set your stop loss to entry and re-enter the market once bullish signals have been confirmed and we break past the $17.1 level again.
Reply
Yahia.Awes luke1827
Thanks for the update!
Reply
Update - 11 Feb 2:47pm (GMT +8)

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Fellow Traders,

Here is a speculative Andrew's Pitchfork that I am watching. This fork is not validated yet but seems to catch some of the price action. Will watch for more to determine if it captures the slope, support and resistance of the price action.

snapshot


Also, note the 1.618 extension of a smaller AB=CD extension providing resistance. This level, $17.09, needs to be taken out to open up an accelerated upside move.

If not, it would be prudent to close partial position in profit.
Reply
Yahia.Awes luke1827
Hello Luke have you got an update for us?
Reply
Update - 10 Feb 9:57pm (GMT +8)

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Fellow traders,

We have support found on both the red downtrendling line and the blue uptrending line highlighted with the green circle. Let's see price stays above support.

snapshot
Reply
Yahia.Awes luke1827
Thanks for updating your chart, hopefully we can go bullish!!
Reply
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