Nobody can actually do this with 100% accuracy. It's more just to keep my mind on the big picture.
I'd say the rally up to $35 is a 95% chance of success though, once we bottom between $18.25 and $14.50.
From $35, I'm not really sure. I'll have to see how the momentum plays out, but my guess is that it will GRIND higher through the major resistance levels up in the mid 40s. See a false break on $50 again and fall back to $30 zone.
Then have another huge bubble like rally from $30 to $100 zone.
There will be a great shakeout as we get a 1929 like debt deflation, the world's largest run on the banks.
Markets will go dark and will come back online with CHN backed by backed by gold, and USD still backed by nothing (or possibly partially backed by gold).
Which will naturally bring silver up.
Even more so than the monetary use is the physical supply issues. What you saw from $50 was not real supply. It couldn't have been. It was future supply (years of it) dumped onto the market at a great price. Now these same players are scooping it up cheap.
As of November 15th 2013, YTD mining numbers look like this:
gold mined worldwide 66 million ounces.
Silver mined worldwide at 620 million ounces.
Do you realize what this means? A market that is trading at 7x lower than its mining ratio.
But then you have to take into account industrial use for silver vs gold.
Gold has less than 1000 industrial uses, while silver has over 10,000.
The long term true value has always been 15:1 or less for silver.
We are headed back there in due time.
Strategy for me is simple.
Physical Metals.
$21 is 10% of holdings.
$18.75 I increase to 20% of holdings
$15.50 I increase to 40% of holdings.
If ever we see $9 or $10 silver, I will increase to 75% of holdings (speculative total assets, not including real estate)
Good luck out there long term investors. It will pay off if you stay patient.
I'd say the rally up to $35 is a 95% chance of success though, once we bottom between $18.25 and $14.50.
From $35, I'm not really sure. I'll have to see how the momentum plays out, but my guess is that it will GRIND higher through the major resistance levels up in the mid 40s. See a false break on $50 again and fall back to $30 zone.
Then have another huge bubble like rally from $30 to $100 zone.
There will be a great shakeout as we get a 1929 like debt deflation, the world's largest run on the banks.
Markets will go dark and will come back online with CHN backed by backed by gold, and USD still backed by nothing (or possibly partially backed by gold).
Which will naturally bring silver up.
Even more so than the monetary use is the physical supply issues. What you saw from $50 was not real supply. It couldn't have been. It was future supply (years of it) dumped onto the market at a great price. Now these same players are scooping it up cheap.
As of November 15th 2013, YTD mining numbers look like this:
gold mined worldwide 66 million ounces.
Silver mined worldwide at 620 million ounces.
Do you realize what this means? A market that is trading at 7x lower than its mining ratio.
But then you have to take into account industrial use for silver vs gold.
Gold has less than 1000 industrial uses, while silver has over 10,000.
The long term true value has always been 15:1 or less for silver.
We are headed back there in due time.
Strategy for me is simple.
Physical Metals.
$21 is 10% of holdings.
$18.75 I increase to 20% of holdings
$15.50 I increase to 40% of holdings.
If ever we see $9 or $10 silver, I will increase to 75% of holdings (speculative total assets, not including real estate)
Good luck out there long term investors. It will pay off if you stay patient.