Silver Price Record Provides Several Hints about the Bottom
Looking at the decline from the 2011 peak of $49.78, I can see how it could be labeled as an Elliott ABC corrective structure, though this view requires it to be broken down into a 3-3-5 wave sequence (i.e. zigzag, flat, & impulse) -- which technically should only be allowable for the component waves of a "flat" correction. What we actually have here is clearly not a "flat" but more of a "zigzag" (which should break down as a 5-3-5 structure), therefore I am stretching the rules here.
Nonetheless, as a 3-3-5 pattern, it does -- at several points along the way -- seem to have revealed very precise numeric clues suggesting the level of the ultimate bottom for the silver market, based on the tenets of EWP and common wave relationships:
#1 Elliott Wave Principle suggests that "A" and "C" waves of corrections tend toward equality. Consider the 3-wave "a" in the chart here: If this "c" were ultimately equal to "a", its low endpoint would be $13.691.
#2 EWP also suggests that 1st and 5th waves of an impulse tend toward equality. Assume that the "c" wave in the chart is unfolding as a 5-wave impulse, as should be expected. Assuming the start of its 1st wave was the top of "b", the 1st wave spanned the distance shown in the yellow box shown in the chart. Assuming the 4th wave was the triangle which began at the top of the green box (and, accordingly, did not overlap the 1st wave): from the peak of the 4th wave, a negative total length for the 5th wave which was equal to the 1st wave would result in a low endpoint of $13.729.
#3 The 4th wave triangle itself, as precisely as I can estimate based on its dimensions, implies a post-triangle thrust (span of green box) low of $13.743.
#4 In December 2014, price itself spiked to a low of $13.997.
#5 As mentioned in my other recent post (see link below), I think it is possible that silver is in the midst of a smaller triangle right now. If the presently unfolding "e" wave were to rise up to just below the peak of the "a" wave ($18.461) which would be the "e" wave's maximum allowable peak under this triangle hypothesis, then the subsequent minimum post-triangle thrust would be about $13.79, and of course a bit lower if wave "e" did not rise that high. In any case, that drop would be enough to satisfy the completion of the impulse by exceeding the extreme of the 3rd wave.
All of these implicit references to the +-$13.70 level found within the price chart through the lense of EWP analysis would seem to be indicating that this will be the ultimate low of this stage of the correction.
Nonetheless, as a 3-3-5 pattern, it does -- at several points along the way -- seem to have revealed very precise numeric clues suggesting the level of the ultimate bottom for the silver market, based on the tenets of EWP and common wave relationships:
#1 Elliott Wave Principle suggests that "A" and "C" waves of corrections tend toward equality. Consider the 3-wave "a" in the chart here: If this "c" were ultimately equal to "a", its low endpoint would be $13.691.
#2 EWP also suggests that 1st and 5th waves of an impulse tend toward equality. Assume that the "c" wave in the chart is unfolding as a 5-wave impulse, as should be expected. Assuming the start of its 1st wave was the top of "b", the 1st wave spanned the distance shown in the yellow box shown in the chart. Assuming the 4th wave was the triangle which began at the top of the green box (and, accordingly, did not overlap the 1st wave): from the peak of the 4th wave, a negative total length for the 5th wave which was equal to the 1st wave would result in a low endpoint of $13.729.
#3 The 4th wave triangle itself, as precisely as I can estimate based on its dimensions, implies a post-triangle thrust (span of green box) low of $13.743.
#4 In December 2014, price itself spiked to a low of $13.997.
#5 As mentioned in my other recent post (see link below), I think it is possible that silver is in the midst of a smaller triangle right now. If the presently unfolding "e" wave were to rise up to just below the peak of the "a" wave ($18.461) which would be the "e" wave's maximum allowable peak under this triangle hypothesis, then the subsequent minimum post-triangle thrust would be about $13.79, and of course a bit lower if wave "e" did not rise that high. In any case, that drop would be enough to satisfy the completion of the impulse by exceeding the extreme of the 3rd wave.
All of these implicit references to the +-$13.70 level found within the price chart through the lense of EWP analysis would seem to be indicating that this will be the ultimate low of this stage of the correction.
