AynCzubas
Long

Silver Price Record Provides Several Hints about the Bottom

FX:XAGUSD   Silver/U.S. Dollar
32 3 0
Looking at the decline from the 2011 peak of $49.78, I can see how it could be labeled as an Elliott ABC corrective structure, though this view requires it to be broken down into a 3-3-5 wave sequence (i.e. zigzag, flat, & impulse) -- which technically should only be allowable for the component waves of a "flat" correction. What we actually have here is clearly not a "flat" but more of a "zigzag" (which should break down as a 5-3-5 structure), therefore I am stretching the rules here.

Nonetheless, as a 3-3-5 pattern, it does -- at several points along the way -- seem to have revealed very precise numeric clues suggesting the level of the ultimate bottom for the silver             market, based on the tenets of EWP             and common wave relationships:

#1 Elliott Wave Principle suggests that "A" and "C" waves of corrections tend toward equality. Consider the 3-wave "a" in the chart here: If this "c" were ultimately equal to "a", its low endpoint would be $13.691.

#2 EWP             also suggests that 1st and 5th waves of an impulse tend toward equality. Assume that the "c" wave in the chart is unfolding as a 5-wave impulse, as should be expected. Assuming the start of its 1st wave was the top of "b", the 1st wave spanned the distance shown in the yellow box shown in the chart. Assuming the 4th wave was the triangle which began at the top of the green box (and, accordingly, did not overlap the 1st wave): from the peak of the 4th wave, a negative total length for the 5th wave which was equal to the 1st wave would result in a low endpoint of $13.729.

#3 The 4th wave triangle itself, as precisely as I can estimate based on its dimensions, implies a post-triangle thrust (span of green box) low of $13.743.

#4 In December 2014, price itself spiked to a low of $13.997.

#5 As mentioned in my other recent post (see link below), I think it is possible that silver             is in the midst of a smaller triangle right now. If the presently unfolding "e" wave were to rise up to just below the peak of the "a" wave ($18.461) which would be the "e" wave's maximum allowable peak under this triangle hypothesis, then the subsequent minimum post-triangle thrust would be about $13.79, and of course a bit lower if wave "e" did not rise that high. In any case, that drop would be enough to satisfy the completion of the impulse by exceeding the extreme of the 3rd wave.

All of these implicit references to the +-$13.70 level found within the price chart through the lense of EWP             analysis would seem to be indicating that this will be the ultimate low of this stage of the correction.
AynCzubas
2 years ago
Sorry. You will need to pan out or scroll backward to see my labeling. I hit "publish" while still on a closeup view of the most recent price action.
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AynCzubas
2 years ago
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AynCzubas
2 years ago
As of today, it appears that wave "D" of the 4th wave triangle has bottomed at the lower trendline of the triangle at $16.801 and begun an impulse upward, which I will now consider to be the first leg of wave "E" which should be the final wave of the triangle prior to a major decline to complete the 5th wave of this "C" leg of the ABC correction in silver since 2011.

I estimate that wave "E" will peak at just slightly above wave "C"'s extreme, around $17.70-80, and probably do so in early August when it hits resistance at the downward sloping trendline from the two peaks in 2012 (the only long-term trendline crossing through this forecasted price area). Following that, there should be a 5-wave impulsive thrust which pulls price down by $4.00, to around $13.75. At that level, my view is that price should reverse into (at least) a three-wave ABC rally (possibly with the intermediate wave "B" taking the form of a triangle) targeting $27 or $32 (i.e. about 0.382 or 0.5 retracement of the decline from 2011-2015.
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