Gold Jan-9, 2017: H4 prefer long

I've been looking to short but since 1170 is holding then there's no initial signal yet. The last formal short setup was between 1155-65 and bulls defended the 50 lvl.

Long setup:
Retracement 1170 or 1165 wick for target 1193/1206.

If this bullish wave 'a' is a 5-wave move then there ought to be another wave up. 1192 is safe because bulls prefer to hit 161.8 reverse fib (black). Yearly pivot 1195 may also block. But 1206-1212 is a juicy short.

Short setup:
Simple setup 1170 breaks then bulls fail to break 1185 high. Can easily happen - 138 reverse fib rejecting and congestion area - but I'm waiting for that initial signal first.

Comment:

Below is the alternate count with channel anchor off 1160 breakdown. Its the short setup that some EW traders are using to short 1185 high.

RSI divergence and wave looks fit on daily.

My doubt about this view is with wave (1) because I can't count it as a valid motive wave or leading diagonal. So if bears do win out then I prefer to view 1122 to 1185 bull as an a-b-c as opposed to 1-2-3-4-5.

Comment:

Asia session went up first for 1176 inviting bears in. If retest can't beat high then I expect bears to win

Comment:

Tracking update:

I'm looking at the bear setup. This is due to the price action and momentum on lower timeframes indicating a corrective A wave instead of an impulse. While waiting for bulls at 1165 to come in.

Comment:

Looking to buy 1175-1174 for 1189 tp (close to 1192 target)

Comment:

Getting ready to tp this at 1190-93 and shorting

Comment:

Day close: New motive wave to re-buy 1172-73 area for continuation. 1206-1212 area looking more likely destination.

Comment:

Very on track here:

Comment:

On a smaller timeframe, wave 3 is still in progress so I'm looking at reaction at 1198 (double top) or 1204 for wave 3 termination. SLs are set under the blue line (1187) because wave 4 should not touch it too much.

Trade closed: target reached