XAUUSD, long- and shortterm TA, 17/09/2023

The amount of money that is now used in gold, is high compared to the last time we reached the 2050 range. Last time we went down much faster and touched a bottom around 1600 range, which was a lower low after a higher high at the time.

The retest on 2050 was last May and since then little volume has been lost, which means that we may even experience a new ATH this year or early next year.

In recent years, the amount of circulating money in stocks, currencies, etc. has increased tremendously and it has become normal to invest. Both long term, which mainly forms a foundation against lower lows and short term which ensures that we can break ATH. In addition, we must not forget that, for example, Bitcoin also affects how much money goes around in XAUUSD , it is therefore known as the digital gold for a reason.

Also, because there's a lot going on in the world that affects everything that has to do with money, I think we need to be careful with trading and analyze what they're going to do.
Think of:

• Massive inflation everywhere, which could cause us to have another financial crisis.
  
• War between USA and Russia (and China?)
  
• Digital currency that creeps into our lives, think also of digital currencies that governments release.
  
• Brics countries that will trade their commodities in their own currencies.
  
• Corona that keeps letting you know it still exists.
  
• Environmental things that are apparently very important to governments while we can't change that.
  
• And probably a few more items that have an impact.
  

On the 4 hour chart, we're still in a falling wedge pattern.
A falling wedge means that there is a high probability of an uptrend when there is a breakthrough of the trend. When this breakthrough will happen is hard to say. Personally, I think it will happen in late September or October.
Further in my technical analysis, I will try to explain why I think that.

The 1 hour chart shows that a head and shoulder pattern has been formed.
After the last shoulder is formed, it is clear that there is a downtrend towards 1900.
At the end of June, this range was also a bottom, after which the price went up again. This means that there is a strong support around 1900.
Personally, I don't think we're going to get below 1900. If that is going to happen, I expect at least bottom of 1880.

After touching the price of 1900, it rose to a price of 1930 within 1 day, reaching the same high as the right shoulder.

Next week could possibly be a beginning breakout to 2050, but I expect a strong resistance between 1935 and 1945 range.

For now it has to break the 1930-1935 range.
If that doesn't happen, we'll continue the downtrend and make a breakout later in the Falling Wedge.

Trade active:

As I had indicated, it had to break the 1930-1935 range and that did not happen.

A triple top has arisen during this rise and it broke through the long term falling wedge pattern.
This could mean 2 things, like always of course...

Option 1:
Either we keep enough volume until the next high impact economic calendar event with good for gold result and rise back towards 1935 and we might even have enough power to set through this barrier and aim for 1950.

Option 2:
We drop like a stone to at least a bottom of 1923-1920 range, or even to a lower zone around 1915.

Trade closed: stop reached:

Option 1 was a hit.
First day it stayed between 1930-1935 range, until the day of FOMC news...
Option 1 had enough power to aim for 1950 but did not reach it. Then option 2 was a hit, not really what I was expecting...
Before the news there was a lot of buy volume, I think it was to push the support line up in case we meet a lower low.
At the time of news we drop like a stone towards our previous range at 1930-1935 and kept hold until the market closed. In the night we kept dropping and ended at a bottom of 1915.

Trade active:

I think we might reach a higher high this year!
We are still in this falling wedge pattern and we might have broken out already.
Our last bottom was at 1900 and we have not made a lower since it. Before our 1900 bottom was a bottom at 1885, that means the 1900 bottom is a higher low that could indicate we are in a long-term uptrend.

For the upcoming days I have mix feelings.

It has formed a double top pattern what could indicate that we go down. Lets say 1900 or below, this may mean even a lower low on long term, below 1885.
But my gut feeling says it will retest 1950 zone and aim for 2050.