chartwatchers
Long

GOLD - The popgold

FX:XAUUSD   Gold/U.S. Dollar
4251 37 66
Today we have the swing in place. Also the descending channel's trendline is broken.
If this holds we could have a few day of bounce in gold             .
We broke below 03.28.2016 DCL but there was no follow through. Also volume is siging that we ran out of sellers. I would like to see a big volume with green candle today. That could support the pop idea.
Also the RSI is leaving the overbought territory which usually a sign of the DCL.
The bounce can be a more powerful one up to the 50 EMA (1240$) and a steep drop after that into the panic selling stage (green scenario) In this case the pop should be finished this week, or early next week
Or it could be a longer sideways consolidation (red scenario) till the middle of June where the 10 DEMA would catch up the price and the breakdown comes in the middle of June only.

I set this idea as a long trade though I don't suggest to trade this. There might be a 30$ up to 1140$ but most probably price will pop only 10-15$. The final scenario depends on the EUrUsd             move, Friday's employment report and depends on banks do they want to play out bulls one more time before the final drawdown.
I think last week bulls were destroyed badly, there should be a very weak employment report on Friday to have a strong bounce up to 1140-1150$.
I suggest to use this pop for positioning in a short trade in the following 1 month's panic decline.
Those who went long at 1200-1210$ could hold the position and decide in the following days when to take profit and enter to a short trade.
I will post when I think the bounce is finished.
Comment: Swing low from close.
On the 26.05 there was a false swing...
That was erased on the same day.
snapshot
Comment: Trendline is broken
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Comment: EurUsd is the key now.
This 2nd breakout of the wedge seems to be working.
That is also supporting the gold pop.
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Comment:
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Comment: Just watch how perfectly the EMA is working... That's the reason I use the EMA.
MACD crossed down and recrossed up.
So far so good...
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Comment: I think we had a perfect day today. 100 EMA worked as a resistance
and we turned down, but I think 10 EMA or the 50 EMA will hold the price and the rally will
continue tomorrow
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will you post about short opportunity before the NFP data? if the NFP report shows weakening we might see a rally as you say but the entry of shorts is what i'm concerned about.
Reply
Yes on Fridaty morning I will post the opportunities. We need to see whats happening today and 2morrow
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saad2 chartwatchers
thanks. good luck
Reply
Do you suggest taking profit befopre the close now and wait for a test of the 10 or the 50 EMA?
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We had the 10 EMA test... If you close now you risk that no testback is coming to the 50 EMA.
The cautious swing traders and technical traders are just waiting for the day to close.
If the trend line break and the swing holds they will start buying.
I have a "bad" feeling something will happen tomorrow or thursday what will push gold up very much....
Reply
ice_holly01 PRO chartwatchers
Then how about our dust position? Still hold it or sell it high tomorrow and reenter on Thursday? Thanks!
Reply
Marvin chartwatchers
Hmm. Ok I see your point. Thanks Arpi.
Reply
MariapiaScopesiCalo chartwatchers
Do you mean that we should increase our longs now?
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chartwatchers PRO MariapiaScopesiCalo
No. Hold what you have. Prepare for the short opportunity.
Reply
Interesting to see gold up while the dollar is up right now - smart money pushing up the price of gold before unloading to retail and the panic selling begins? Seems possible
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