Today we have the swing in place. Also the descending channel's trendline is broken.
If this holds we could have a few day of bounce in gold.
We broke below 03.28.2016 DCL but there was no follow through. Also volume is siging that we ran out of sellers. I would like to see a big volume with green candle today. That could support the pop idea.
Also the RSI is leaving the overbought territory which usually a sign of the DCL.
The bounce can be a more powerful one up to the 50 EMA (1240$) and a steep drop after that into the panic selling stage (green scenario) In this case the pop should be finished this week, or early next week
Or it could be a longer sideways consolidation (red scenario) till the middle of June where the 10 DEMA would catch up the price and the breakdown comes in the middle of June only.
I set this idea as a long trade though I don't suggest to trade this. There might be a 30$ up to 1140$ but most probably price will pop only 10-15$. The final scenario depends on the EUrUsd move, Friday's employment report and depends on banks do they want to play out bulls one more time before the final drawdown.
I think last week bulls were destroyed badly, there should be a very weak employment report on Friday to have a strong bounce up to 1140-1150$.
I suggest to use this pop for positioning in a short trade in the following 1 month's panic decline.
Those who went long at 1200-1210$ could hold the position and decide in the following days when to take profit and enter to a short trade.
I will post when I think the bounce is finished.
If this holds we could have a few day of bounce in gold.
We broke below 03.28.2016 DCL but there was no follow through. Also volume is siging that we ran out of sellers. I would like to see a big volume with green candle today. That could support the pop idea.
Also the RSI is leaving the overbought territory which usually a sign of the DCL.
The bounce can be a more powerful one up to the 50 EMA (1240$) and a steep drop after that into the panic selling stage (green scenario) In this case the pop should be finished this week, or early next week
Or it could be a longer sideways consolidation (red scenario) till the middle of June where the 10 DEMA would catch up the price and the breakdown comes in the middle of June only.
I set this idea as a long trade though I don't suggest to trade this. There might be a 30$ up to 1140$ but most probably price will pop only 10-15$. The final scenario depends on the EUrUsd move, Friday's employment report and depends on banks do they want to play out bulls one more time before the final drawdown.
I think last week bulls were destroyed badly, there should be a very weak employment report on Friday to have a strong bounce up to 1140-1150$.
I suggest to use this pop for positioning in a short trade in the following 1 month's panic decline.
Those who went long at 1200-1210$ could hold the position and decide in the following days when to take profit and enter to a short trade.
I will post when I think the bounce is finished.
Comment:
Trendline is broken
Comment:
EurUsd is the key now.
This 2nd breakout of the wedge seems to be working.
That is also supporting the gold pop.
This 2nd breakout of the wedge seems to be working.
That is also supporting the gold pop.
Comment:
Comment:
Just watch how perfectly the EMA is working... That's the reason I use the EMA.
MACD crossed down and recrossed up.
So far so good...
MACD crossed down and recrossed up.
So far so good...
Comment:
I think we had a perfect day today. 100 EMA worked as a resistance
and we turned down, but I think 10 EMA or the 50 EMA will hold the price and the rally will
continue tomorrow
and we turned down, but I think 10 EMA or the 50 EMA will hold the price and the rally will
continue tomorrow
On the 26.05 there was a false swing...
That was erased on the same day.