chartwatchers
Long

GOLD - The popgold

FX:XAUUSD   Gold/U.S. Dollar
4229 37 64
6 months ago
Today we have the swing in place. Also the descending channel's trendline is broken.
If this holds we could have a few day of bounce in gold             .
We broke below 03.28.2016 DCL but there was no follow through. Also volume is siging that we ran out of sellers. I would like to see a big volume with green candle today. That could support the pop idea.
Also the RSI is leaving the overbought territory which usually a sign of the DCL.
The bounce can be a more powerful one up to the 50 EMA (1240$) and a steep drop after that into the panic selling stage (green scenario) In this case the pop should be finished this week, or early next week
Or it could be a longer sideways consolidation (red scenario) till the middle of June where the 10 DEMA would catch up the price and the breakdown comes in the middle of June only.

I set this idea as a long trade though I don't suggest to trade this. There might be a 30$ up to 1140$ but most probably price will pop only 10-15$. The final scenario depends on the EUrUsd             move, Friday's employment report and depends on banks do they want to play out bulls one more time before the final drawdown.
I think last week bulls were destroyed badly, there should be a very weak employment report on Friday to have a strong bounce up to 1140-1150$.
I suggest to use this pop for positioning in a short trade in the following 1 month's panic decline.
Those who went long at 1200-1210$ could hold the position and decide in the following days when to take profit and enter to a short trade.
I will post when I think the bounce is finished.
6 months ago
Comment: Swing low from close.
On the 26.05 there was a false swing...
That was erased on the same day.
snapshot
6 months ago
Comment: Trendline is broken
snapshot
6 months ago
Comment: EurUsd is the key now.
This 2nd breakout of the wedge seems to be working.
That is also supporting the gold pop.
snapshot
6 months ago
Comment:
snapshot
6 months ago
Comment: Just watch how perfectly the EMA is working... That's the reason I use the EMA.
MACD crossed down and recrossed up.
So far so good...
snapshot
6 months ago
Comment: I think we had a perfect day today. 100 EMA worked as a resistance
and we turned down, but I think 10 EMA or the 50 EMA will hold the price and the rally will
continue tomorrow
snapshot
ofiratias4
6 months ago
thank you very much:)
+2 Reply
LJT
6 months ago
Much appreciated.
+1 Reply
BjornPfaff
6 months ago
Beautifull Arpi , may god bless you for all your effort
+1 Reply
sir can i buy now??
Reply
chartwatchers PRO hassan.saeed881994
6 months ago
Pls. read the text. Everything is there.
+2 Reply
giovannicanu
6 months ago
good job i'am waiting USA
Reply
alanprotrader
6 months ago
great analisys. thanks
+1 Reply
pmcllc PRO
6 months ago
1240-1250 seems like a good short entry
Reply
chartwatchers PRO pmcllc
6 months ago
Carefully after today's big pop (20$) we can easily have one more big day and 2 small.
So 1260$ is not out of the table
Reply
DMK8680
6 months ago
Good advice - I had my DUST stop out. Where are you seeing a good re-entry into DUST? I'm eying 15.25.
Reply
chartwatchers PRO DMK8680
6 months ago
I'll be watching gold. WHen gold turns down I will reenter DUST
Reply
johnmad PRO
6 months ago
Thank you for posting your charts and updates , if i may add there is a possible Wolfe Wave within this Parallel Channel
Reply
johnmad PRO
6 months ago
snapshot
+1 Reply
MariapiaScopesiCalo PRO johnmad
6 months ago
You are very expressive not only your really good but also I love your writing, you should be a writer! god bless you!!
Reply
johnmad PRO MariapiaScopesiCalo
6 months ago
Thank you , but not good in writing , i only love trading .
Reply
MariapiaScopesiCalo PRO johnmad
6 months ago
Oh John sorry!, message was not for you but for Arpi..
Reply
XTAL.ball
6 months ago
So are you still backing DUST as the best ETF to capitalize on the impending drop in gold? Any reason why it has been so stagnant in May? Will it really really (really) take off once we enter the panic selling stage? Thanks for your insight.
Reply
chartwatchers PRO XTAL.ball
6 months ago
This (DUST) is following the miners. As it is a 3x ETF I think this is the best way to short the miners with big leverage...
I will reenter when gold turns down
Reply
kizly
6 months ago
Risked with JNUG on friday, sold 50% with 7%. Small position, risk was too big.
Thnks
+1 Reply
whawk PRO
6 months ago
Thank you this setup last week. Riding the pop up and ready to jump into $JDST longs when the time comes.
+1 Reply
Nightstar
6 months ago
I was tempted to get in this morning but I'm not convinced that the Dollar has put in a top (or a bottom in the Euro). That being said, the double bottom in Gold on the 1 hour chart is very convincing and I suppose one could take a very small position in the Miners with a tight stop.
Reply
chartwatchers PRO Nightstar
6 months ago
Miners long?
Reply
Nightstar chartwatchers
6 months ago
Nope. I hesitated this morning and decided not to.. It bothers me that the US dollar is still trying to find a top.
Reply
Marvin
6 months ago
So now the 100 ema is acting as resistence, but you're banking on it getting above it and then acting as support, as was the case with the 20 and the 50? Is this what you mean? But isn't it a bit contradictory, because if this is the case then we can't rely on it or? I mean how does one know if and when it breaks? This may seem a naive question but I have to ask it. Thanks for all your great work Arpi. I'm raking in the pips following you.
Reply
chartwatchers PRO Marvin
6 months ago
Yes I'm waiting for a support at the 100 EMA once we break it through.
Today was a big day up in gold. THere will be a follow through tomorrow.
I will post a chart soon.
Reply
4thewin chartwatchers
6 months ago
even with the end of day dump?
Reply
toothless
6 months ago
Interesting to see gold up while the dollar is up right now - smart money pushing up the price of gold before unloading to retail and the panic selling begins? Seems possible
Reply
chartwatchers PRO toothless
6 months ago
Gold seems to be turning before the dollar. Euro broke out from the channel.
DXY will turn down from the trendline soon.
Reply
Marvin
6 months ago
Do you suggest taking profit befopre the close now and wait for a test of the 10 or the 50 EMA?
Reply
chartwatchers PRO Marvin
6 months ago
We had the 10 EMA test... If you close now you risk that no testback is coming to the 50 EMA.
The cautious swing traders and technical traders are just waiting for the day to close.
If the trend line break and the swing holds they will start buying.
I have a "bad" feeling something will happen tomorrow or thursday what will push gold up very much....
Reply
ice_holly01 chartwatchers
6 months ago
Then how about our dust position? Still hold it or sell it high tomorrow and reenter on Thursday? Thanks!
Reply
Marvin chartwatchers
6 months ago
Hmm. Ok I see your point. Thanks Arpi.
Reply
MariapiaScopesiCalo PRO chartwatchers
6 months ago
Do you mean that we should increase our longs now?
Reply
chartwatchers PRO MariapiaScopesiCalo
6 months ago
No. Hold what you have. Prepare for the short opportunity.
Reply
saad2
6 months ago
will you post about short opportunity before the NFP data? if the NFP report shows weakening we might see a rally as you say but the entry of shorts is what i'm concerned about.
Reply
chartwatchers PRO saad2
6 months ago
Yes on Fridaty morning I will post the opportunities. We need to see whats happening today and 2morrow
Reply
saad2 chartwatchers
6 months ago
thanks. good luck
Reply
Ideas Scripts Chart
United States
United Kingdom
India
España
Italia
Brasil
Россия
Türkiye
日本
한국
Home Stock Screener Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features House Rules Moderators For the WEB Widgets Stock Charting Library Priority Support Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Help & Wiki Twitter
Private Messages Chat Ideas Published Followers Following Priority Support Public Profile Profile Settings Billing Sign Out