GOLD - The popgold

FX:XAUUSD   Gold / U.S. Dollar
4251 37 66
Today we have the swing in place. Also the descending channel's trendline is broken.
If this holds we could have a few day of bounce in gold             .
We broke below 03.28.2016 DCL but there was no follow through. Also volume is siging that we ran out of sellers. I would like to see a big volume with green candle today. That could support the pop idea.
Also the RSI is leaving the overbought territory which usually a sign of the DCL.
The bounce can be a more powerful one up to the 50 EMA (1240$) and a steep drop after that into the panic selling stage (green scenario) In this case the pop should be finished this week, or early next week
Or it could be a longer sideways consolidation (red scenario) till the middle of June where the 10 DEMA would catch up the price and the breakdown comes in the middle of June only.

I set this idea as a long trade though I don't suggest to trade this. There might be a 30$ up to 1140$ but most probably price will pop only 10-15$. The final scenario depends on the EUrUsd             move, Friday's employment report and depends on banks do they want to play out bulls one more time before the final drawdown.
I think last week bulls were destroyed badly, there should be a very weak employment report on Friday to have a strong bounce up to 1140-1150$.
I suggest to use this pop for positioning in a short trade in the following 1 month's panic decline.
Those who went long at 1200-1210$ could hold the position and decide in the following days when to take profit and enter to a short trade.
I will post when I think the bounce is finished.
Comment: Swing low from close.
On the 26.05 there was a false swing...
That was erased on the same day.
Comment: Trendline is broken
Comment: EurUsd is the key now.
This 2nd breakout of the wedge seems to be working.
That is also supporting the gold pop.
Comment: Just watch how perfectly the EMA is working... That's the reason I use the EMA.
MACD crossed down and recrossed up.
So far so good...
Comment: I think we had a perfect day today. 100 EMA worked as a resistance
and we turned down, but I think 10 EMA or the 50 EMA will hold the price and the rally will
continue tomorrow
thank you very much:)
+2 Reply
Much appreciated.
+1 Reply
Beautifull Arpi , may god bless you for all your effort
+1 Reply
sir can i buy now??
chartwatchers PRO hassan.saeed881994
Pls. read the text. Everything is there.
+2 Reply
good job i'am waiting USA
great analisys. thanks
+1 Reply
1240-1250 seems like a good short entry
Carefully after today's big pop (20$) we can easily have one more big day and 2 small.
So 1260$ is not out of the table
Good advice - I had my DUST stop out. Where are you seeing a good re-entry into DUST? I'm eying 15.25.
I'll be watching gold. WHen gold turns down I will reenter DUST
Thank you for posting your charts and updates , if i may add there is a possible Wolfe Wave within this Parallel Channel
You are very expressive not only your really good but also I love your writing, you should be a writer! god bless you!!
johnmad PRO MariapiaScopesiCalo
Thank you , but not good in writing , i only love trading .
Oh John sorry!, message was not for you but for Arpi..
So are you still backing DUST as the best ETF to capitalize on the impending drop in gold? Any reason why it has been so stagnant in May? Will it really really (really) take off once we enter the panic selling stage? Thanks for your insight.
This (DUST) is following the miners. As it is a 3x ETF I think this is the best way to short the miners with big leverage...
I will reenter when gold turns down
Risked with JNUG on friday, sold 50% with 7%. Small position, risk was too big.
+1 Reply
Thank you this setup last week. Riding the pop up and ready to jump into $JDST longs when the time comes.
+1 Reply
I was tempted to get in this morning but I'm not convinced that the Dollar has put in a top (or a bottom in the Euro). That being said, the double bottom in Gold on the 1 hour chart is very convincing and I suppose one could take a very small position in the Miners with a tight stop.
Miners long?
Nightstar chartwatchers
Nope. I hesitated this morning and decided not to.. It bothers me that the US dollar is still trying to find a top.
So now the 100 ema is acting as resistence, but you're banking on it getting above it and then acting as support, as was the case with the 20 and the 50? Is this what you mean? But isn't it a bit contradictory, because if this is the case then we can't rely on it or? I mean how does one know if and when it breaks? This may seem a naive question but I have to ask it. Thanks for all your great work Arpi. I'm raking in the pips following you.
Yes I'm waiting for a support at the 100 EMA once we break it through.
Today was a big day up in gold. THere will be a follow through tomorrow.
I will post a chart soon.
4thewin chartwatchers
even with the end of day dump?
Interesting to see gold up while the dollar is up right now - smart money pushing up the price of gold before unloading to retail and the panic selling begins? Seems possible
Gold seems to be turning before the dollar. Euro broke out from the channel.
DXY will turn down from the trendline soon.
Do you suggest taking profit befopre the close now and wait for a test of the 10 or the 50 EMA?
We had the 10 EMA test... If you close now you risk that no testback is coming to the 50 EMA.
The cautious swing traders and technical traders are just waiting for the day to close.
If the trend line break and the swing holds they will start buying.
I have a "bad" feeling something will happen tomorrow or thursday what will push gold up very much....
ice_holly01 PRO chartwatchers
Then how about our dust position? Still hold it or sell it high tomorrow and reenter on Thursday? Thanks!
Marvin chartwatchers
Hmm. Ok I see your point. Thanks Arpi.
MariapiaScopesiCalo chartwatchers
Do you mean that we should increase our longs now?
chartwatchers PRO MariapiaScopesiCalo
No. Hold what you have. Prepare for the short opportunity.
will you post about short opportunity before the NFP data? if the NFP report shows weakening we might see a rally as you say but the entry of shorts is what i'm concerned about.
Yes on Fridaty morning I will post the opportunities. We need to see whats happening today and 2morrow
saad2 chartwatchers
thanks. good luck
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