GOLD - hourly update: toasting the bulls

FX:XAUUSD   Gold / U.S. Dollar
1252 22 21
After a key reversal ( Bearish pin bar ) and a double top yesterday gold             finally broke down the 1290$ level.
We tested back this level and turned down from the neckline of the double top pattern.
The 10 EMA was catching up the price and supporting the downtrend. The market is a little bit nervous so we will test back again and again the 20 EMA ( like 2 hours ago).
In these hours price is fighting the 100 EMA . As the dollar continues its rally we will break down this level also.
Those who entered yesterday or the day before yesterday now can sit back and enjoy the show because this decline will be a tough one. The late bulls must be stopped out in 2 weeks. By the end of May everybody will be talking about the bear is back and gold             is heading to 1000$.

My first big target is the 50 EMA ( daily chart ) : 1235$.
And the final target is the 200 EMA daily chart : 1181$.
Comment: As I posted we broke down the 100 EMA (hourly chart)
DUST will be on fire today with a runaway GAP open.
Comment: Bulls last hope is the testback in the green box.
When we break below it significantly they will realize that something went wrong and
everybody wants to exit from the long positions in the same time.
It's not a testback or a pullback.
This is a horrible intermediate decline when everybody is bullish and will be caught at the wrong direction.
Comment: I think we are going to test back the 100 EMA in the following 1-23 hours at 1279-1280.
It's a good entry point I think.
Or you can enter now and add there the other half of the position.
But please don't go all in.
Comment: Gold is a Son*O*B*.
The bulls will come and try to buy the dips again and again /till the last phase (4-5weeks from now) when all of them will be stopped out in the panic selling stage . / so that dip buyers are the reason that you MUST SURVIVE THE POPS. In these dip buyers there will be big funds who are buying for the next 3-4 years and governments like China. They don't care if we go down to 1150$. They buy at the price what was ordered to them and those buyings will push the price up.
But the Key reversal will hold now.
Comment: WE are coming close to the 100 EMA .
0.75-1$ more
Comment: 100 EMA
I'm adding now
Comment: Anyone was adding at the 100 EMA?
We had the perfect backtest.
Comment: 100 EMA is next.
We will stop there for some time.
The daytraders could take profit there and add back later.
Comment: I think we have seen the 1st fund buying in the decline in that green candle 3-4 hours before.
We tested back the neckline again.
If we reach the 200 EMA on the hourly day traders could take profit on half of the position. And get back later...
The daily 10 EMA is at 1266$ it is an important level. Bulls will move into action then.

But this gold is done guys. We will eat toasted bulls in May.

Is your guess that we even break the 1200?
Yes but only end of MAy . Beginning of June
Turestedt chartwatchers
Thanks for that. That would pair up with Gold's weaker seasonability for May, June.
so sould we go short now?
I have a bullish outlook on gold, with targets around 1400-1500. I think what we finally see now is a healthy correction. And then.... Have charts for this, just want to see how it develops before posting them
chartwatchers PRO captain_smollett
Completely agree. We just need a tough intermediate decline now to 1120-1180$. Nobody knows where it will stop.
And then a rally to 1400-1500. Just too many bulls now. We are cleraing the sentiment.
Smartmoney has to realize the profit from the rally.
And the small bulls must be stopped out and give back the previous gains plus the pension rate in this decline.
It is the same as always...
Hummm... 1180 looks very far away. I thought on 1250 =)
chartwatchers PRO captain_smollett
There should be 2 daily cycles. For the 1st is to 1235 the second when every bull is giving up the position.
chartwatchers PRO chartwatchers
THat is going deeper : 1180 or lower.
We´d need to discuss this further =) According to my count, the rally has just begun and what we see now is W2 of 5... I know your system works on Oil so I may need to amend mine somewhere.. Can I PM you later in the CET evening, please?
chartwatchers PRO captain_smollett
OIl tricked me out yesterday . I was sure that we won't break below the 10 EMA.
We see what today brings.
chartwatchers PRO chartwatchers
The dollar and falling stocks are pushing down the price...

In and out, in and out... The US guys start trading soon though
chartwatchers PRO captain_smollett
This is good.
Today everything is red again:
gold . oil, metals, stocks only USD is in positive.
Oil and stocks have to start to rally again...
Long in Dust 1k @ 1.62
chartwatchers PRO RaimondasKarth
Thank you for your insight. Really appreciate it. You've made me a lot of money this year!
LOL... Wht toasting bull??? 130X already achieve... After EAT SL gold bring down movemnt at all... But just little pullback :D not worried...
chartwatchers PRO Sakakikunmakio
I dont think you can it out the 355.000 commercial short position with a blees rating 0.
We made lauching pad @1270... Soon we will see 13xx :D
chartwatchers PRO Sakakikunmakio
It's a bulltrap.
And You are one of the victims.
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