Can it be a long term bull flag? Long has better RR

FX:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
350 3 13
- Long term Ichimoku setup is healthy bullish , with Kijun support at 1287.
- Well defined trendline , with support at 1300
- Heikin-Ashi pattern: 10 mixed weekly candles -> indecision, some correction, rather a consolidation phase. This consolidation is surprisingly less volatile. This often occurs before next major move in direction of existing trend.
haOscillator crosses up, but of course this week will depend a lot on the FED.
- EWO             is bullish , value is well above zero.
- MACD has been showing price consolidation too. Both lines are well above zero.

- As I have been wathcing this structure for several weeks now, I have a strong feeling that a long term bullish flag pattern is being formed here. Validation would come with a break and close above 1345-1350 (please see closer look on daily). If the flag gets validation, next measured tgt             will come about 1475-1500.

- As I wrote yesterday, Ichimoku setup is absolutely neutral.
- Heikin-Ashi shows initial signal of a possible bullish reversal: doji candle at trendline and Kumo support, haDelta and haOscillator turn up, but they still below zero line.
- Bulls have to fight through upper resistances of 1330 and 1350. Above that space opens.

This is the way, how trendfollowers think! We do not fade a trend, until we have a proof of a break and reversal. We are not afraid of buying, if we see good risk/reward with high possible target, and a really well defined tight stop.
If you place stop to 1290, compared to long term possible tgt             at 1475, that is more than 6 : 1 RR.
What is the worst? That we will be wrong? I have no problem with that, I am not here to raise my ego. Or that we lose 2-3 %? It should not make big harm, if you have a solid money management system :-)

For now I see this point as a good risk/reward bullish entry level. Obviously we don't have to go all in leveraged. That we can do later, if price action confirms and price shoots higher.
This position worked well, but still no breakout. Yesterday candle showed clearly the loss of momentum at Kumo top resistance. Trailing stop was triggered today on GCZ6 long. Out of this speculative position now.
However I will look for a buy signal once more at 1310-15 level!

Note: I had a Platinum long on too. There we lost 7 pips today as 4H setup failed, and tight stop got triggered.
It certainly can, I'm long too, let's see how it goes. Good luck.
+1 Reply
albertwt IvanLabrie
Yes me too, I am buying this week.
+1 Reply
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