Gold - Long term "bullish money" with firm bearish tech setup

FX:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
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I should have written the title as Long term firm bearish , but short term it may consolidate and pull back some.
However I'd like to highlight that even if someone believes in Gold             as a long term real money vs indebted and inflated fiat ccys, it is very important when and how you buy, or accumulate it, as despite our views, mkt reaction and technical setup for Price trends can be a lot longer "irrational" (well respecting the markets we should consider Price action always as rational, as markets do not have feelings and memory, only people do... but this is another theoretical question)

- Validation of bearish Ichimoku setup has happened this week. Price broke 1150 key resistance. Chikou Span breaks below past candles and enters into open space ahead.
From now 1150 is a bearish support and a long term strategic turning point, which of course as time passes will come lower with average lines.
- The long term bearish trendline remains vaild
- Heikin Ashi setup is full bearish

- Ichimoku setup is heavy bearish , but due to the break and sharp price collapse 4 days ago, price has got too far below equilibrium. Normally after such a move we can see some form of bearish consolidation or maybe even a pull back to supports.
- The same is visible in Heikin Ashi setup: a bearish consolidation has started: after haDelta dropped to extreme low level, with smaller candle bodies following, haDelta started to correct. If you look only the Heikin Ashi candle pattern, you can see that despite yesterday candle had a lower low, its body was already smaller than the previous candle's, and it looks like today candle with even a smaller body and with no lower low confirms the ongoing consolidation.

For a few more days I do not expect Price to reach or break further below 1180-1185, what's more, based on short covering a correction towards 1120+ area is a bit more likely. However long term the charts still suggest Gold             can remain under serious selling pressure.

I see a lot of arguments why Gold             is a buy, and I also think the fiat ccy systems are doomed to fail. But on the other hand, Gold             is not just considered as money, but also as a commodity, denominated in USD if you follow spot Gold             ( XAUUSD             ). And while I agree that in the long run as a money it is probably better to hold Gold             than any other indebted fiat ccy, it is still important what level and in what sizes you start to accumulate it. If you consider it as a commodity and you compare it to all other commodites, you can still see it still relatively "outperforms" most of the others, which already dropped a lot more than 50 % from their peaks seen a few years ago.

So my conclusions:
1. In the long term it will be a buy - but the long term Price action and chart is bearish now - so it will be a buy when the long term tech setup changes.

2. Short term it may correct up, maybe even to 1140, but playing this counter trend trade is really risky, hard to achieve a 1:2 risk/reward ratio with hgh probability, so even if you play it, you must do it only with 0,5 or even less trade (risk) unit.

3. Patience and trend following aproach is the most important and believe me its payout is the best in the long run! -> less frustration, and ultimately more P/L, more yield. So why sould you always get involved in all swings, in all instruments? Just to get a special (in fact a fake) "feeling" of being right as often as possible? I the long run "being right" doesn't necessarely mean "makeing serious money".
have u seen
is 950 to 1000 going to be the bottom ?
Kumowizard TomNewYork
Everything is possible, but no one knows what and when will be the bottom.
nice analysist. but i have noticed every time people think something and happens something else. The main reason this will sink from here is FED interest rates. But i read many articles and found that whenever FED has increased rates in past, Gold has shot up only because of inflation. All news channels saying with interest rates, Gold will sink but i am damn sure it will bounce back after interest rates. Because already price is baked in wit interest rate news. After interest rate increment in Sept, shorts will cover and you know, this time heavy short happened in Gold and Silver...for Silver it is record high 5-10 times of Gold. With little short covering, this will shoot up A LOT may be Gold 1400 and Silver to $17-18. Festival seasons kicking in India and reduction in import tax by Modi will increse demand for Gold again .Also all the companies which has AISC < 1100 has to bankrupt and stop producing gold for short term which will increase demand and Gold will go up from there. Out of 100 analyst, really only 10 analyst are accurate and rest 90 analyst just goes with the crow and repeating the same stmt. They dont want to be odd one by saying gold will go up. Keep in mind whatever number they broadcast in news channel, it never reaches there. Oil was suppose to go to 30 but it cam eto 42 and bounced back to 60. Trend is still down so this time it may touch 38 but this time they are saying 20-30 which id really difficult. Same will happen to Gold. Everyone saying 900 but lowest i can see is 1050 and then huge UP in short covering rally. Read your article again after it will shoot up again and then read my this post after few months when it will be up to 1250 at least.
Kumowizard LetsBeMillionaire
Maybe maybe maybe... predictions and thoughts... at some point every prediction and thought gets validation. The question is when, and what route you walk until. What you say is all possible, but the only thing that matter: PRICE, PRICE ACTION and TREND.
I really think it is dangerous approach and totally useless to call any bottom or top ahead! Now really tell me can it go to 1050, 900, 800 or even down to 650? Yes, all is possible. Can it reverse from 1085 to 1250? Yes why not? But what and when will happen to Gold, no one knows!!! No one is an Oraculum on markets (unless he is an insider :-) )
So my best advise still is: Don't be a price/trend predictor, but try to be a price/trend follower! Act on clear signals, not on believes, theories or assumptions.

One more thing, I will not have to read this article again by the time Gold shoots up, because by then my model will tell me go and stay long, and I will have a totally different view. That means I will have a new bullish article for that present, and this past will not matter at all.

Realisto_FX LetsBeMillionaire
FED interest rates expectations, does it matter ? https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/fed-interest-rate-expectations-josep-pocalles
Kumowizard Realisto_FX
Of course it does. If the 10Y discount rate goes higher (ZN yields go up) and after 6 years of ZIRP rates slowly start to increase on front end too, that can be an alternative for Gold, which has no coupon or dividend. But I think Stocks are in bigger danger from this perspective.

In fact no one really knows what is exactly driving Gold price, and what is the real fair value of it. I mean if you look at how much gold has been produced (excavated) in history, compared to how much fiat ccy was created out of thin air, Gold could be at 14.000 USD/oz as well. However the amount of credit and available liquidity (cash) in the economy alone is not enough to drive Gold price higher alone. The question is velocity of money flow, and also if the people who use the certain ccy do believe that their currency system is sustainable, or do they question their own money? If they lose faith or they realise they are being "robbed out" by the government/central banks, than at some point they stop accepting the unbacked fiat money, they try to escape from it as quickly of possible. Than they rush to buy phisical Gold.
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