FX_IDC:XAUUSD GOLD / US DOLLAR
There's been quite a lot of buzz recently about Gold being on the cusp of a run due to global NIRP and the market's pricing out of all but 1 Fed hike through 2017. The technicals support the hype. We've seen two breach solid breaches of resistance extending back to 2012 highs and we've seen a solid base build off of even stronger resistance at around 1040. Gold has since rallied up to its 3mo resistance, which coincides with w/ fib extensions b/w 1153 and 1166. is at its highest overbought level since Jan 2015. I think a nice contrarian trade is to go short in expectation of a stronger than expected FNP report. Doing so at very overbought short-term levels and at coinciding resistance levels makes the trade all the more attractive. I'm entering at 1160, targeting 1087 and keeping my stop fairly tight at 1190.
Trade closed: stop reached: Technically, I would have been stopped out here, but the trade I put on was OTM puts, so they've lost most of their value. It's worth holding them as a lottery ticket than closing them for a few bucks of liquidity. This rally might have legs on a sustained move above 1200. Will continue to watch.