TUCM

Potential 3-4 months long swing

TUCM Updated   
OANDA:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
Good Evening,

I am looking for Gold to hold this level. On the 15 minutes timeframe you can see that a double bottom has been formed already. I will wait until tomorrow to see if that level holds to go long for a 3 to 4 months swing. If the current level of 1766$ does not hold, I will stop out my position, because more downside is imminent. In that case, I am looking for the funny yellow trend channel that I drew to hold in order to re enter (around 1745$).

Watch DXY closely while trading gold. I expect DXY to go sleep with fishes soon, giving gold more moon-force. Yes, there is a double bottom on DXY. But fundamentally not much has changed since the FOMC on wednesday. Thus, I expect this pop to be a fake out: DXY-DOOM, GLD-MOON. But who knows?
Sentiment-wise, it feels like there are a lot of people buying the f****** dip on gold (regarding social media).


Technicals:

i) 1770$ is a good area of support.
ii) The last movements 61 fib retracement is sitting here as well
iii) RSI on the weekly is at a support spot as well: Look at this odd white line I drew on the RSI, the last couple of times it hit that level, gold continued upwards.
iv) RSI on the daily is oversold and at support as well.
v) An inverse head n shoulders might be in the making, with this drop forming the right (or left? ò.Ò) shoulder!
vi) Price is at that rainbow-regression support.

If this area holds tomorrow, I´ll grab calls. If not, I´ll stop out below 1765$ and wait for a better deal.

Good luck and remember to have fun!


Comment:
Sitting on the side lines and waiting for 1745 to hold and form a pattern on the daily here.
Also watching the DXY and US10Y to show rejection of potential uptrend.
Sentiment seems to be very negative on gold as of right now.

Still looking for my yellow line to act as support. Awaiting monthly candles close. Probably takes until next week for confirmation or rejection of that trade idea.
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