DLavrov

Gold - Double Bearish Divergence

Short
FX:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
The price is not far from a very solid resistance zone formed between 1350.00 and 1360.00 levels. If you look at the weekly chart, you can see how many times the market bounced from this zone and started the downward movement. This time we should be ready to get the same structure.

The daily timeframe gives us a double bearish divergence. It's a strong trend reversal signal. The market is at the strong resistance zone and combining it with the divergence - it gives us a new sell opportunity. The price can try one more time to break the resistance zone and move higher, but we have to note that bulls are not so strong for this and bears are going to take the market under their control. Selling from the current levels can be rather dangerous because of that possible upward movement. But using a signal level as an additional signal confirming that the market is going to move lower, it will be a better idea. The signal level can be 1325.00 level. It was the local resistance and now it acts like local support. If the price drops below this support - we will have this additional signal confirming the falling. I guess that not far from this level there will be SMA20 which is also a support line, so it will be better to wait for a close price also below this line. Only after that, I would like to search for exact levels for opening short positions.

If we look at the indicators, we will get the following signals:
- RSI reverses in the overbought zone and it confirms the price reversal. It's a bearish signal. Also, the weekly RSI is in the overbought zone and it's another signal telling that the market is really overbought
- MACD is still bullish but it's above the signal level. It will give us good signals supporting the downward movement
- DMI is bullish and confirms trend market conditions. But we have lower highs which tell us that bulls become weaker and the market is going to reverse.

As you can see from the signals, we still have active bulls but at the same time, the market changes. Bears become stronger and they are going to reverse the price. It means we have to wait for better signals confirming the downward movement and only after that open short trades with targets at SMA50, SMA100, and the uptrend line.

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