chartwatchers
Long

GOLD - Wedge apex testback

FX:XAUUSD   Gold / U.S. Dollar
6409 63 71
At Brainard's speech we've broken out of the wedge and yesterday aftermarket we tested back the apex
of the wedge . That level is also important as it is the the bottom of the consolidation. I don't think price will visit the beartrap between 1310-1302.
RSI 14 is showing a divergence as price has broken to new lows in the night but RSI couldn't get more oversold.
Anyway yesterday's sting to 1313             was just a manipulated move as a big player had dumped a big amount of contracts in the low volume session. It was nearly a 10$ move in 1 minute. Only those shorts were able to close their positions who had a take profit at that level.

I would like to see price to break above the 10 EMA and stay above. MACD crossover would be an important sign that we are heading up again.
Comment:
snapshot
Comment: Time of gold is coming.
Oil is falling despite the bullish inventory data. Stocks are also dropping.
And now the dollar is giving up.
We might see this year's most powerful gold rally in the following 5 days.
snapshot
Comment: Gold is ignoring the dollar's move to the 200 SMA.
snapshot
Comment: Smartmoney already knows no rate hike next week.
The chance is 15%.
Thanks for new chart! Any thoughts that you can draw a line from that spike to 2/9, 1/9, 3/6 and 30/5?
Reply
Some sort of "intermediate resistance support"? It does not have perfect angle match with the start of the bull, but it seems it has been quite "firm" since the ICL in end of May.
Reply
I don't see that. could you post?
+1 Reply
Viking83 PRO chartwatchers
Resistance lines
Reply
We still not tagged DCL.
Reply
VirtualFax saint_athur
True since we still have not tagged the current year trendline.
Reply
I posted this chart yesterday on another post and so far it's playing out.. All eyes on the dollar who is simply toying with us :)

snapshot
+1 Reply
nice chart.... (u just wanted to say thrust)
Reply
Nightstar webmiztriz
:')
+1 Reply
Perhaps we just need to get past this FOMC meeting next week. Precious still under pressure.
Reply
Rising bond yields weighing on gold, too!
Reply
I totally agree the rally's coming but I don't believe the Gold train will leave the station without a kissing goodbye to this year's supporting trendline (somewhere in $1,302 and $1,306 range) in the next couple of days. Besides, if the "smart money" are in the game, it's unlikely the rally would start without a final shakeout. Lastly, at the time of my posy, there seem to be a bearish pendant forming on hourly, which alone could push Gold to below $1,310 area as early as today, subject to the exact timing of the breakdown.
+1 Reply
DS77 VirtualFax
I agree. Gold isn't leaving the station until fomc minutes get released. The "the dollar can collapse any day" chatter here I don't buy into. It's also been said for weeks on these trade ideas and all these trade ideas have failed to perform. NG is unchanged since his entry, but he's quite red on oil , gold and miners.
Reply
Tomorrow we have a lot of data. If data is anti rate hike - no rate hike in Sept becomes obvious and train will leave the station before NYSE opens. Any day now it can leave. If you bull you have to have at least some position right now. Even if you anticipate small drop.
+1 Reply
saint_athur VirtualFax
Muchly agree. I will wait the train at 1300 or 1303. We primting DCL either tomorow or friday.
Reply
It seems someone will not allow a breakout before FOMC. The data rally at 8:30 was all the way up to 1328 and now we are down again..
+2 Reply
i saw that too...maybe im reading the data releases wrong, but they sound pretty much shit to me, didn't expect an immediate panic pullback
Reply
VirtualFax GoldB777
This morning sharp moves had nothing to do with the rally. The show must have been pre-planned by the big boys to shake the things out a bit in order to quickly pocket a bunch of easy cash in this nervous environment.
Reply
Bulls are taken to hospital again :D
Reply
pbartashevich PRO MetalCruisers
I am alive. Just sh.t my pants a bit this morning. Now I washed them and ready to run!!! I hope you used the opportunity to load with longs today.
+3 Reply
CalGreens pbartashevich
Ha ha....may be another Bear Trap!
Reply
VirtualFax pbartashevich
If you carefully crafted a plan and you believe in it, the things shouldn't scared you.

https://www.tradingview.com/u/VirtualFax/#published-charts

And my three days old chart from another Gold related discussion

snapshot


However, there is still no guarantee that the supporting trendline doesn't get broken down beyond repair causing free fall to the next support in the $1,250 whereabouts.
Reply
MetalCruisers pbartashevich
GOLD / 500oz Swing / I cannot resist to buy.
+1 Reply
saint_athur pbartashevich
You must respect market price before you rushing buying. Please learn what is support what is resistance. That will safe your money.
Reply
Miners diverging from gold today a little more than usual. NUGT up a couple percent, gold down 1/2 percent.
+2 Reply
Bearbud bertcoin
Hey Bertcoin, why have we not heard from Arpi in two days? Trying to figure out what to do with Oil and Gold.
Reply
http://us2.campaign-archive2.com/?u=782363159fbc9257a5256cdde&id=0603af1bf7&e=
+1 Reply
This baby is going down to 1307 .. let's see .. going long is still not an option my friend. hope you are hedging from 1337 ?
+3 Reply
VirtualFax BjornPfaff
I have been of the same view all along but I would suggest to avoid sarcastic tone on this awesome website. Constructive criticism helps to avoid mistakes, while sarcasm turns people down towards you, and not only those whom it is directed to but anybody who reads it.
+3 Reply
Nightstar VirtualFax
You can keep telling him but this platypus doesn't get it.. He started long ago before you even got here!
+2 Reply
VirtualFax Nightstar
Well, then ban candidate?...
+1 Reply
Nightstar VirtualFax
Wouldn't that be nice.. but alas Tradingview is a little lax and lazy on this one.
Reply
BjornPfaff Nightstar
because tradingview knows i'm right , puried.
Reply
Nightstar BjornPfaff
It's got nothing to do with right or wrong Bjorn.. It's your attitude that sucks! And it started the very first time you popped up on Tradingview. I'm surprised you haven't figured that out yet, especially since EVERYONE keeps pointing it out to you my friend :)
Reply
BjornPfaff Nightstar
Well , i have one more thing to say before you act like a superstar instead of a nightstar my friend , someone who gives a call to go long from 1337 is in my opinion not a good trader, trading is not about getting the right direction in the market , it's about how you get this direction, what you have to keep in mind, which factors are in play , not only the fundemental part but also technical, the market repeats itself every time, so it's not that hard to know which movement you have to take. How many times was Arpi right ? please tell me ? I only want to give you guys a good opinion. I don't care who is making mistakes or who doesn't. It's the way some people give bad calls that bothers me. If you can't give, just don't fool someone else.
Reply
saint_athur BjornPfaff
If they finish today, we might see 1298 from my price action.
Reply
VirtualFax saint_athur
Mind sharing your price action? I'm curious to see as that price level would mean the 2016 trend-line penetration by about 0.5%. Not yet the end of the "bulls dream" world but still significant. The last bastion of support that would be left in that area is the Jul-Sep corrective flag's bottom line (the lower green on my chart just above). Is it what you are referring to?
Reply
saint_athur VirtualFax
Im using daily and weekly pivot. Price action change everyday andeveryweek. I also have monthly trendline which probality to go to 1298 support is 50-50 from my view including the structure. Im learn structure with projack.
Reply
At this point, things don't look good. Any changes in your thoughts?
Reply
Kssshh Arpi with these updates!! Don't tell them.. The Bears... Let them get the lesson!
Kshhh...
+1 Reply
We're not tagged DCL yet. 1303 or 1300 is the best level to open position.
Reply
VirtualFax saint_athur
Since that range is below the trendline and the further we move along in time the larger the gap, the most likely time to tag the range is a few short minutes between 2 and 3 pm next Wed. Alternatively, market openings on Mon or/and Wed.
Reply
saint_athur VirtualFax
Personally im not expecting today but we cannot ignore strong support at 1298 level.
Reply
Folks.. Gold is in a bull Market! This is what Markets do.. they churn, they whipsaw and confuse the heck out of you and then all of a sudden.. the trend continues and everyone breathes a sign of relief. Wash___rinse_______________repeat :) Relax.
+5 Reply
saint_athur Nightstar
We all know this is bullish trend but pls keep in mind that market have a wave before continue the trend. So be smart before you losing your money. I make money from selling position even 2 long entry at 1336 and 1327 hitting my stop losss but sell position still can cover my loss.
Reply
Nightstar saint_athur
You don't short and you don't sell a 'Long' position this early on into a Daily Cycle my friend; that's how you end up decimating your account. Most novices over-trade and obsess over timing a perfect entry.. They don't understand the importance of simplicity and patience.

The big picture is this: Gold continues to consolidate over the 200MA and will begin the next leg up when the dollar rolls over into its ICL. All you have to do is exercise a little patience, that's it.

+1 Reply
Comment removed
MetalCruisers Nightstar
He got 1 right out of 100.. Don't mind.. Let the Kid feel pro.
Reply
saint_athur Nightstar
Im on the bullish train since a few months ago kid and now im looking the best support to re entry. While waiting the pullback is finish, i made money with $50 by selling off the gold. Let me tell you something kid, get you mom and ask why she never teach you manner. LOL! I am neutral user here when you guys fighting but this time i give you a great lesson kid.
Reply
ooo ur so smart .. ;o)
#panties
Reply
Nightstar webmiztriz
Yum :)
Reply
We are almost there...
Reply
Nightstar is right in what he is saying in that we are in a bull market. You just don't short a bull market unless you want to gamble. Gold has been in a bull market all this year. To trade this all you need is low leverage and patience. The best time to trade is when you are really getting scared. is anyone getting nervous yet?? Just buy long, low lev and hold - simples :)
Reply
albertwt mrtommifunn
When I click on load the chart, are we entering bear trap or not yet?
Reply
MetalCruisers MindTrader
:D
Reply
what do you mean "The chance is 15%" ?
Reply
15% of what?
Reply
I think its odds of a rate hike and should be lower around 9-10% if I'm correct
Reply
http://www.investing.com/central-banks/fed-rate-monitor
Reply
Interesting. For some reason I can't see MACD on my charts. Any suggestions? Thanks!
Reply
Could our consensus bullish expectations be wrong and what if the triple bouncing off the multi-year bearish resistance line, instead of being a corrective structure in the new bullish rally, marked, in fact, the beginning of another cycle down to $1,000/oz area over the next nine month? Here is the chart supporting such scenario. I suggest analyzing this (rather unwelcomed, but not impossible) option would help to get ready to whatever direction Gold takes after the FOMC.

What is the gold bugs are wrong in their expectations?
Reply
I think alot of people are forgetting that a bull market does not go up in a straight line. There will be corrections and depending on peoples entry then they will suffer draw down. But people just need to hang on, as a bull market will give higher highs. To see just one reason we are in a bull market your weekly chart with a 200 MA. Yes we will get drops but people need to hang on. If people want to trade this back up to and beyond 1900 then they need to hold their balls, trade low leverage, sell parts on the highs, buy more on the lows and buy in increments. This is going to last a number of years and every correction people will start shouting its all "going wrong" , or "its now going bearish". You just need to remember we are on a bull market and bull markets in gold last at least yes least 5 years and this one has just started. -- ----buy long and hold----
Reply
I've read an interesting scenario I must share with you all. So, what happens if gold is going to rally on Monday, Tuesday into Wednesday leaving most of the traders out of the move as they are waiting for the FED decision?
Reply
Ideas Scripts Chart
United States
United Kingdom
India
España
France
Italia
Polska
Brasil
Россия
Türkiye
Indonesia
日本
한국
Home Stock Screener Forex Signal Finder Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features House Rules Moderators For the WEB Widgets Stock Charting Library Priority Support Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Help & Wiki Twitter
Private Messages Chat Ideas Published Followers Following Priority Support Public Profile Profile Settings Account and Billing Sign Out