FX:XAUUSD   Gold / U.S. Dollar
4442 49 69
Just a short update before the FED decision.
Today we bounced from the green trendline and we broke the descending trendline (blue). It seems we have the perfect setup for a rally.
The last few hours of bounce seems an artificial move to me. It's too simple to end this daily cycle at the trendline .
On the daily chart I was waiting for to tag the 50 EMA and that didn't happen though.

So I'm not buying this bounce yet, but I don't want be get caught in the next rally with the rest of my shorts. We stole a lot of money from the bull from 1368$ even till today.
I'm going to close all of my shorts before the FED decision except a very small position. For that position I'm going to set a stop loss at 1334$. Just to have some skin in the game if we break down the trendline and tag the 50 EMA on the daily chart ....

If the rally is starting now - and after the FED decision - it's going to go above 1400$ so I dont care if I enter 10$ later only.
Comment: I would have liked to see the 50 EMA tag on the daily chart...
snapshot
Trade closed: stop reached: Closed every short position before FOMC.
A small position was stopped at 1334
agree . also waiting 1300 point for buy
+1 Reply
boozed22 PRO Qasimshahzadgt
Keep waiting..not gonna happen..
+2 Reply
one day .... it will :)
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I'm with you, don't want to get caught. Who knows where it can go
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Totally disagree with you.
With a dovish FOMC stocks will rally and gold will fall to 1250
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So to your logic with Rate Hike Gold should rally? Why? - on anticipation that Fed will be dovish next time :).
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waterman pbartashevich
With a hike risk off will be in play and safe havens like gold and yen will rally with commodity falling
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There's nothing to disagree.
I don't know the direction now.
I said it can go up or down. I hold a little short because I'm not sure the cycle low was at 1310$...
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rohithisgood chartwatchers
I was waiting for 1280 to go long but now that its at 1340 I think its too high to go long. Will it continue going to 1400 or drop significantly ?
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They will have to say how many hikes will be this year. If one - we rally BUT on what ground they will downgrade from two hikes to one? Everything is rallying. They have to hike or be hawkish.
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I would say the best option if they want to hike is to hike now but talk dovish and let markets correct to support levels.
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chartwatchers PRO pbartashevich
I was sure about the hike, but no press conference today.
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pbartashevich PRO chartwatchers
Even if they just be neutral everything will fly up, except their credibility (if that has any value to them). You cannot say we will have two rate hikes this year and them just back off without reason. So I am expecting a surprise to the party.
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if we have a 0.25 basis point rise, do you think we will retrace back to 1300?
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syron shoks786
I think we'll go back to 1280 in a monsterspike :D Market is pretty confident they won't hike and a lot of bulls might think this was it to the downside.
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What about JoB on Friday ? How does it influence gold price?
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Mannnassser Mannnassser
BoJ
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Okay here are my thoughts: the US$ has over the past several days increased in value but gold has not decreased which traditionally happens so that would lead me to believe we are due for a minor correction to the downside in gold.
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I think we tag 1332/35 range then it goes down from there as bears move in for the short.
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soo you're bullish on gold I presume ???
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The trend is your friend... I think we have to pull down to the 50 EMA...eventually. The one caveat is the Bank of England on Friday.
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Here we go... the US$ is holding steady, oil is inching back up (remember %60 percent of time gold/oil is inverse relationship) and DOW is inching up gold should start to fall.
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Yesterday Gold open interest dropped by -33,097. Before yesterday -10,132. Let's see what happened today. But for now money is withdrawing from Gold. Maybe it was just before FOMC meeting.
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Have you closed your short or you still waiting?
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Will be stopped at 1334
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Dps chartwatchers
time to Long..?
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When are you planning a long position on Gold and Silver?
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Tonight
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Any comments Arpi?
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The small short position stopped out. I'm trying to find an entry point tonight.
The daily cycle low is in...
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PratamaDimas chartwatchers
so on what price u gonna take for entry point? for a long term?
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In case you don't know..China is on the bid..
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You basically nailed the low with your short covering at I believe around $1315. Don't be the goldbug caught being a permabear :)
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cant agree more, Sir
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Technically I agree with you. I prefer to play with gold in shorter term to catch some money perhaps you lift it there :)
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Have you decided to take a long position on Gold and Silver or you are waiting for a better point?
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still can down 1300 ?
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USSRandolph KhunHunSein
Would be nice but I would be surprised if it did.
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I a a distressed that I missed the 1315 double bottom and subsequent $30 rise. Should have been more vigilant and self reliant. I now see resistance around 1345, a $10 correction then move up to $1400+. Anyone's thoughts please.
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Dont be... 1315 was not a buy. 1330$ was a buy only.
ANd we can easily drop to 1335$.
It will rally 100$ . WHo cares that 15$ ?
Keep some rdy powder and add the dips. The chance to fall below 1315 is very low
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USSRandolph chartwatchers
Yes, you are right of course. I had the feeling I was missing out. Really, I missed nothing... Got in at 1333 after pullback this AM. I need to find more patience.
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USSRandolph USSRandolph
Correction to above: $1345 then down to $1330... $15 correction then $1400 +
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KhunHunSein USSRandolph
so around 1330 will be trigger for long , thz for sharing
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Hm. Investors did not like ABX earnings too much yesterday and GG reported a net loss of -9 cents vs +4 expected. Go figure..
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Finally media started at least talking about Feds policy. Amazing how prior to meeting yesterday media was ignoring it as it doesn't exist.
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Gold, dollar and stocks correcting together. I think only now Sept rate hike is being priced in as well as major crisis is being priced out. Yesterday we had just panic short coverage on no hike news. Preliminary open interest in gold futures is -7000 (dont trust that too much). If today and tomorrow gold will not follow the push up. That means loss of interest in gold.
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pbartashevich PRO pbartashevich
Final open interest in gold for yesterday is -7500. For silver it is +2000. In gold traders just closing old contracts. so be careful with long positions.
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I put long on $1341.63 (a bit too late to enter) and saw it's still bullish at that point. Do you think it will still bullish? To what point? At least $1360? It's kind of bearish right now at $1338
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Yen and Euro bottoming at the same time, USD is toast. Gold will shoot up.
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