FX:XAUUSD   Gold/U.S. Dollar
4440 49 68
8 months ago
Just a short update before the FED decision.
Today we bounced from the green trendline and we broke the descending trendline (blue). It seems we have the perfect setup for a rally.
The last few hours of bounce seems an artificial move to me. It's too simple to end this daily cycle at the trendline .
On the daily chart I was waiting for to tag the 50 EMA and that didn't happen though.

So I'm not buying this bounce yet, but I don't want be get caught in the next rally with the rest of my shorts. We stole a lot of money from the bull from 1368$ even till today.
I'm going to close all of my shorts before the FED decision except a very small position. For that position I'm going to set a stop loss at 1334$. Just to have some skin in the game if we break down the trendline and tag the 50 EMA on the daily chart ....

If the rally is starting now - and after the FED decision - it's going to go above 1400$ so I dont care if I enter 10$ later only.
8 months ago
Comment: I would have liked to see the 50 EMA tag on the daily chart...
snapshot
8 months ago
Trade closed: stop reached: Closed every short position before FOMC.
A small position was stopped at 1334
Qasimshahzadgt
8 months ago
agree . also waiting 1300 point for buy
+1 Reply
boozed22 PRO Qasimshahzadgt
8 months ago
Keep waiting..not gonna happen..
+2 Reply
rohithisgood boozed22
8 months ago
one day .... it will :)
Reply
shinsky
8 months ago
I'm with you, don't want to get caught. Who knows where it can go
Reply
waterman
8 months ago
Totally disagree with you.
With a dovish FOMC stocks will rally and gold will fall to 1250
Reply
pbartashevich PRO waterman
8 months ago
So to your logic with Rate Hike Gold should rally? Why? - on anticipation that Fed will be dovish next time :).
Reply
waterman pbartashevich
8 months ago
With a hike risk off will be in play and safe havens like gold and yen will rally with commodity falling
Reply
chartwatchers PRO waterman
8 months ago
There's nothing to disagree.
I don't know the direction now.
I said it can go up or down. I hold a little short because I'm not sure the cycle low was at 1310$...
Reply
rohithisgood chartwatchers
8 months ago
I was waiting for 1280 to go long but now that its at 1340 I think its too high to go long. Will it continue going to 1400 or drop significantly ?
Reply
pbartashevich PRO
8 months ago
They will have to say how many hikes will be this year. If one - we rally BUT on what ground they will downgrade from two hikes to one? Everything is rallying. They have to hike or be hawkish.
Reply
pbartashevich PRO
8 months ago
I would say the best option if they want to hike is to hike now but talk dovish and let markets correct to support levels.
Reply
chartwatchers PRO pbartashevich
8 months ago
I was sure about the hike, but no press conference today.
Reply
pbartashevich PRO chartwatchers
8 months ago
Even if they just be neutral everything will fly up, except their credibility (if that has any value to them). You cannot say we will have two rate hikes this year and them just back off without reason. So I am expecting a surprise to the party.
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shoks786
8 months ago
if we have a 0.25 basis point rise, do you think we will retrace back to 1300?
Reply
syron shoks786
8 months ago
I think we'll go back to 1280 in a monsterspike :D Market is pretty confident they won't hike and a lot of bulls might think this was it to the downside.
Reply
Mannnassser
8 months ago
What about JoB on Friday ? How does it influence gold price?
Reply
Mannnassser Mannnassser
8 months ago
BoJ
Reply
MMadryga
8 months ago
Okay here are my thoughts: the US$ has over the past several days increased in value but gold has not decreased which traditionally happens so that would lead me to believe we are due for a minor correction to the downside in gold.
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MMadryga
8 months ago
I think we tag 1332/35 range then it goes down from there as bears move in for the short.
Reply
AL_G
8 months ago
soo you're bullish on gold I presume ???
Reply
MMadryga AL_G
8 months ago
The trend is your friend... I think we have to pull down to the 50 EMA...eventually. The one caveat is the Bank of England on Friday.
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MMadryga
8 months ago
Here we go... the US$ is holding steady, oil is inching back up (remember %60 percent of time gold/oil is inverse relationship) and DOW is inching up gold should start to fall.
Reply
pbartashevich PRO
8 months ago
Yesterday Gold open interest dropped by -33,097. Before yesterday -10,132. Let's see what happened today. But for now money is withdrawing from Gold. Maybe it was just before FOMC meeting.
Reply
ArtFly
8 months ago
Have you closed your short or you still waiting?
Reply
chartwatchers PRO ArtFly
8 months ago
Will be stopped at 1334
Reply
Dps chartwatchers
8 months ago
time to Long..?
Reply
ArtFly
8 months ago
When are you planning a long position on Gold and Silver?
Reply
chartwatchers PRO ArtFly
8 months ago
Tonight
Reply
USSRandolph
8 months ago
Any comments Arpi?
Reply
chartwatchers PRO USSRandolph
8 months ago
The small short position stopped out. I'm trying to find an entry point tonight.
The daily cycle low is in...
Reply
PratamaDimas chartwatchers
8 months ago
so on what price u gonna take for entry point? for a long term?
Reply
boozed22 PRO
8 months ago
In case you don't know..China is on the bid..
Reply
verlin03
8 months ago
You basically nailed the low with your short covering at I believe around $1315. Don't be the goldbug caught being a permabear :)
Reply
lslcqq1984
8 months ago
cant agree more, Sir
Reply
Nawaf__Q8
8 months ago
Technically I agree with you. I prefer to play with gold in shorter term to catch some money perhaps you lift it there :)
Reply
ArtFly
8 months ago
Have you decided to take a long position on Gold and Silver or you are waiting for a better point?
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KhunHunSein
8 months ago
still can down 1300 ?
Reply
USSRandolph KhunHunSein
8 months ago
Would be nice but I would be surprised if it did.
Reply
USSRandolph
8 months ago
I a a distressed that I missed the 1315 double bottom and subsequent $30 rise. Should have been more vigilant and self reliant. I now see resistance around 1345, a $10 correction then move up to $1400+. Anyone's thoughts please.
Reply
chartwatchers PRO USSRandolph
8 months ago
Dont be... 1315 was not a buy. 1330$ was a buy only.
ANd we can easily drop to 1335$.
It will rally 100$ . WHo cares that 15$ ?
Keep some rdy powder and add the dips. The chance to fall below 1315 is very low
Reply
USSRandolph chartwatchers
8 months ago
Yes, you are right of course. I had the feeling I was missing out. Really, I missed nothing... Got in at 1333 after pullback this AM. I need to find more patience.
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USSRandolph USSRandolph
8 months ago
Correction to above: $1345 then down to $1330... $15 correction then $1400 +
Reply
KhunHunSein USSRandolph
8 months ago
so around 1330 will be trigger for long , thz for sharing
Reply
pbartashevich PRO
8 months ago
Hm. Investors did not like ABX earnings too much yesterday and GG reported a net loss of -9 cents vs +4 expected. Go figure..
Reply
pbartashevich PRO
8 months ago
Finally media started at least talking about Feds policy. Amazing how prior to meeting yesterday media was ignoring it as it doesn't exist.
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pbartashevich PRO
8 months ago
Gold, dollar and stocks correcting together. I think only now Sept rate hike is being priced in as well as major crisis is being priced out. Yesterday we had just panic short coverage on no hike news. Preliminary open interest in gold futures is -7000 (dont trust that too much). If today and tomorrow gold will not follow the push up. That means loss of interest in gold.
Reply
pbartashevich PRO pbartashevich
8 months ago
Final open interest in gold for yesterday is -7500. For silver it is +2000. In gold traders just closing old contracts. so be careful with long positions.
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Noobsnoot
8 months ago
I put long on $1341.63 (a bit too late to enter) and saw it's still bullish at that point. Do you think it will still bullish? To what point? At least $1360? It's kind of bearish right now at $1338
Reply
traderzaius
8 months ago
Yen and Euro bottoming at the same time, USD is toast. Gold will shoot up.
Reply
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