chartwatchers
Short

GOLD - Falling

FX:XAUUSD   Gold/U.S. Dollar
6932 89 79
7 months ago
It seems we have started a clear move down into the DCL. It should last for 4-5 days.
We have the blue double top which broke down its neckline (blue) and was tested back by a bear flag yesterday.
And the bear flag broke down in the night. We are heading down to 1300$.

Perma bulls are quiet now - I know they are reading me - so it's a good sign that they are freaking out with their longs and don't have time for the contrarian posts here.

The target depends on how fast is the move. I will post here when I think we bottomed.
This decline will also affect GDX             , GDXJ             wihich will have its compulsory decline now. And DUST JDST             can have a pop. Miners are terribly overbought. I think it's time to give a humble pie to the bulls with a scary decline in the following 4-5 days. I can read at a lot of forums that gold/silver miners cannot fall. Let's see are they untouchable or not.
7 months ago
Comment: Many asked about the BOE decision today (3 hrs from now)
I don't think anything can stop gold from the decline now.
In the next 3 hours we should print 3 green candles on the hourly chart.
There could be a good entry point for the shorts.
snapshot
7 months ago
Comment: I think BOE will not cut today. USA futures are pulled up hard.
They are preparing for that scenario. So we could have a little pop in gold after the BOE decision.
Maybe 1235. And tomorrow the decline could continue again.

Someone asked:
Rate cut: gold might fall more. Or it could be in the price already.
No rate change: gold will pop for a few hours.
7 months ago
Comment: We tagged the 20 EMA on the daily chart. I think we have a little bounce here.
I closed half of my short positions at 1325.
snapshot
7 months ago
Comment: 2-3 days and we are at the 50 EMA. As you see it's not a freefall just a correction caused by the lack of the buyers. They will come in around 1300$.
7 months ago
Comment: Bouncing from the daily 20 EMA. Just as I thought the first dip buyers had arrived.
It's too early to go long now. This will be a serious DCL.
7 months ago
Comment:
snapshot
7 months ago
Comment: Told you it's not over yet.
If we close near the weekly minimum next week we are going to see some real blood on goldstreet.
7 months ago
Comment: Let's see what Yellen's slaves are telling us about the July rate hike.
7 months ago
Comment: No better chance for a rate hike than 27th July. Elections are months away, stock markets are at all time highs...
LaoYoutiao
7 months ago
Your analysis is always a important read, the rate this is falling now, we might see gold to 1300 level on Friday.
+1 Reply
bracken
7 months ago
I was worried for a while when you got bullish gold.
+1 Reply
chartwatchers PRO bracken
7 months ago
The pennant breakout? (Now it seems as I'M watching the target price it was only a triangle)
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RogerS PRO
7 months ago
What about BoE cutting rates ? If this happen this morning in no time we will be up and far away from 1300 I believe.
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captain_smollett PRO RogerS
7 months ago
That should mostly go to stocks and GBP, EUR pairs. Oil and Gold won´t benefit too much as this is BOE, not ECB or FED... Buy rumors, sell facts they say
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isaac312 PRO
7 months ago
right after you said, it sled down... lol
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isaac312 PRO isaac312
7 months ago
:(
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Neptun07 PRO
7 months ago
Hello chartwatchers , do you see a small recovery within the next 2-3 hours and then a bigger falling or already direct further down until tonight?
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shoks786
7 months ago
Hi, i remember you were able to tell the nfp numbers would be good, by looking at price, if b.o.e keep the rate unchanged, could accelerate the decline in gold, whats your opinion on this? thanks
+1 Reply
UltraVC
7 months ago
Thank you : )
+1 Reply
shoks786
7 months ago
thanks
+1 Reply
JohnnyDrama
7 months ago
gj arpi, thanks!
+1 Reply
Neptun07 PRO
7 months ago
What's the reason for this short drop?
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chartwatchers PRO Neptun07
7 months ago
The water is wet. The grass is green. The sky is blue.
After a big rally there is always a pullback.
+2 Reply
s.mahdi
7 months ago
a bounce in price till where do u expect??
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chartwatchers PRO s.mahdi
7 months ago
Wait. I check my crystall ball.
+1 Reply
s.mahdi chartwatchers
7 months ago
didnt tell predict!!!!!expect means review your techn, chart and give a no, unless u r really using a c.ball hhh
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chartwatchers PRO s.mahdi
7 months ago
Ok. I was just joking. This is almost impossible to tell...
Bulls are coming back from the sidelines slowly. Sooner or later they will buy everything there will be our bottom.
I think now the first buyers are coming in. So we need at least on more drop below today's low
+1 Reply
s.mahdi chartwatchers
7 months ago
thank you and really appreciate your efforts..best of luck ...
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philippo PRO chartwatchers
7 months ago
What is our bottom 1300?
+1 Reply
philippo PRO philippo
7 months ago
can it test under 1300?
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pbartashevich PRO
7 months ago
GDX on hourly chart perfect classy H&S + Island reversal $28.1 target guaranteed. Will it fall more?
+1 Reply
pbartashevich PRO pbartashevich
7 months ago
Assuming it breaks $29.40 of course :).
+1 Reply
scottvaladez PRO
7 months ago
Not permabull, but long-term bull. Picture says it. Probably good long entry point. Thx.
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Marvin
7 months ago
Sorry mate but why are you so confident that it's gonna drop again based on price bouncing from the daily 20 ema (if indeed that's what the latest chart is signifying)? I hope ur right as I'm short. Deciding when to exit is very difficult with this right now. It feels like I should have done it 2 hours ago and I suppose I'm not alone.
+1 Reply
pbartashevich PRO
7 months ago
Tuesday Open Interest:
Gold: 633,020 change: -24,756
Silver: 214,617 change: 1,471

Wednesday Open Interest:
Gold: 622,167 change: -10,853
Silver: 216,376 change: 1,759

People buying silver vs gold for now.
+1 Reply
itrade9s
7 months ago
GDX is too strong, strong dip buying action each and every time...gold is down 3% from all time highs and GDX is down less than 1%....
+1 Reply
AL_G itrade9s
7 months ago
and i keep adding arpi is good but shorts gold too much dont try to beat the market play the market its simple. his other plays are outstanding. look at gss up 12% with gold down today
+1 Reply
chartwatchers PRO AL_G
7 months ago
This is true AL_G. We are in a bull market but we still making money on the short side. This daily cycle will not be easy for the longs though.
Most of the bulls are already in a position. SOme of them from 1260. Some of them bought just today. Some of them are long since Brexit night.
I'm just asking how will bulls survive a dip below the Brexit night?
Because that scenario is not out of the table. We have an FOMC meeting in 2 weeks.
The last chance for a rate hike this year. If Yellen comes up on a press conference with the idea of
a rate increase we can see some real decline. Miners are terribly overbought.
Most people think that gold and miners cannot fall. Just like in January : gold will be 500$ in a year. Every mining shares will go to bankruptcy.
Didn't happen though. This coin has 2 sides. The sweet is never so sweet without the bitter.
+6 Reply
profprof chartwatchers
7 months ago
a more technically "ideal" version of your chart would be to long at 1305, the dip support on 6-28, and it would be hit on monday which would also be on your green big support trendline
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verlin03 chartwatchers
7 months ago
i held through the drama of brexit. i can hold through this. not worried because there is a small army that wants in on this. Question? Would you rather be in our shoes or yours? and.... when you buy, will you hold?
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chartwatchers PRO verlin03
7 months ago
"I held through the drama of brexit." You were long at brexit. Why was it so hard to hold it through?
We will see when your gains are evaporating day after day next week can you hold or not.
This daily cycle low will be a tough one. Before brexit we had a half cycle low. It was so hard that a lot of analysts still think it was a DCL.
This DCL will be a tough one. We will hear " gold is going to 1000$" on the last day.
What I buy at the DCL I will hold till the next daily cycle top. for 4-5 weeks.
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verlin03 verlin03
7 months ago
I went long after non farms @ $1260. Gold went up $1320 and crashed going into brexit. i held through that. ill get concerned if we fall back into the bear channel. dont be the gold bug that buys into the bull market at $1400
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rohithisgood chartwatchers
7 months ago
Also looking forward to good earnings from the banks. This sector hasn't grown this year. As banks go up I expect gold to fall. I am not touching gold until the FOMC meeting.
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Neptun07 PRO
7 months ago
What a fuuck.it shall go DOWN!
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drbek PRO
7 months ago
do you still thinking low now its very important
+1 Reply
Viking83 PRO
7 months ago
Excellent chart analysis. Keep up the good work, much appreciated.
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caneman
7 months ago
DCL coming next week! It's like a slow motion fall...
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Mannnassser
7 months ago
The trend is up and gold might bottomed at 1320 ... i remeber a few weeks ago that price went down to 1232 then went up while Arpi's idea was that gold will fall to 1205-1210 DCL... this happened with me personnally. I think that gold is up and i recommend to buy 5% at each support level if gold goes more down. No sell anymore.
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chartwatchers PRO Mannnassser
7 months ago
Too early for the DCL.
If you can hold during a drawdown to 1270-80 (it's not impossible...) then OK.
Everybody thinks gold is decline resistant. Time for a curveball.
I have a small short position only. But trust me this DCL will be a scary one.A lot of bulls will stop out at the bottom. And not will be able to reload again.

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Mannnassser chartwatchers
7 months ago
We both agree that gold is down ... my idea is that ... better to buy gold with lower prices than selling gold at a level where the price may bounce .. this level looks for me at 1320
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Mannnassser Mannnassser
7 months ago
Why at 1320? Cuz the trend is up
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chartwatchers PRO Mannnassser
7 months ago
We shorted gold at the NFP. Last week . Price was 1370$.
When I post a chart with a "short" sign it not always means I'm starting the short there
Many times it's just updates for a previous post.
GOLD - Sell the news
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batty chartwatchers
7 months ago
Will Turkey change anything on your target or is this the reversal? what do you think?
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xiiimik
7 months ago
Do you trade pairs like XAUCAD or gold paired with other currencies? Do you consider it is better? I found out that XAUCAD offers slightly better R:R.
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chartwatchers PRO xiiimik
7 months ago
no
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pbartashevich PRO
7 months ago
All coming news are positive and pro-rate hike as expected. Why would one invest in Gold at these prices when banks are not easing, economy is doing good, markets are on a rally and Fed talks rate hike? - Arpi is right it will be a nasty scary fall in Gold.
+2 Reply
bracken pbartashevich
7 months ago
you wish
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marketplaceguy
7 months ago
u mean its gonna be more selling next week
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chartwatchers PRO marketplaceguy
7 months ago
yes. I would like gold to take out yesterday's low.
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Billeci chartwatchers
7 months ago
If price action is similar today as it has been in the New York trading session, I'm wondering if the ticks close to 1322 will be the low for the day. JDST showing a little more resilience this morning (strictly based on its reaction to gold's pop up from 1322), but still incredibly weak (especially in lieu of gold's march down this week).
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Cornhub
7 months ago
Yellen slaves...lol...
+1 Reply
val_trader
7 months ago
rate hike on 27th July: in this case GOLD short, EURUSD short and OIL short, correct ?
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pbartashevich PRO
7 months ago
I am thinking about Sept as well. So July or Sept we will have a rate hike. Now markets are still fragile. I would say they need to build up bullish sentiment and then good for a rate hike in Sept. So my percentages for rate hike in July 40%, in Sept 60%. But 99% that it will happen in one of those months :).
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Annette
7 months ago
I admit Yellen' slave is a very good one, but at the same time stronly believe that Fed gonna find a good excuse for no rate hike: what do you think about cyber attacks?
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USSRandolph
7 months ago
Sold JDST At break even after holding for 6 days. Bought at gold price of @ 1355. Sold at gold price 1328.45.
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USSRandolph USSRandolph
7 months ago
At least I didn't lose. Anybody do any better?
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USSRandolph USSRandolph
7 months ago
No way would I hold over the weekend.
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Billeci USSRandolph
7 months ago
I'm holding into the weekend! JDST has been more resilient today and, if gold drops towards the 1300 / lower level, I'll take my chances some bulls are shaken and JDST holders finally see the type of move we've been waiting for. Definitely not holding my breath at this point, since, as you've highlighted, the performance has been bad and would indicate more lackluster performance!
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pbartashevich PRO
7 months ago
COT points to lower prices. Large Speculators reduced Long positions and increased short positions. Looks like those who were driving market are backing off.Small Speculators are wrong - did the opposite :). Commercials did not increased longs so they anticipate lower gold prices. In silver commercials sold longs anticipate lower prices.
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ArtFly
7 months ago
In Turkey, a military coup ! Do not change your assessment of the position on gold and silver ?
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verlin03
7 months ago
somethings telling me gold just hit its DCL :)
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USSRandolph verlin03
7 months ago
That's what I thought when you gold touched @ 1322.
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verlin03
7 months ago
do you panic and close your short? very interested to see how you play this
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USSRandolph verlin03
7 months ago
No panic, but I sold Jay DST at break even. Didn't make sense to me to hold any longer.
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USSRandolph USSRandolph
7 months ago
Oops! JDST. That's what I get for dictating .
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ArunasZageras PRO verlin03
7 months ago
seems like that this push down was too much to continue..
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chartwatchers PRO verlin03
7 months ago
I never panic. But i think we open with a down gap tomorrow at 1310.
Do you panic?
It's a good sign that bulls are back here and celebrating. I've seen this many times before.
All I can say this is going to be a setious DCL with 2 curveballs. I dont think any of you - who is long now- lwill be able to hold through next week. I will be buying when these bulls are stopping out. :)
+2 Reply
syron
7 months ago
Hm.. following this closely and holding a short position over the weekend. If Turkey gets further out of control, I'm afraid we could open with a big gap up (1345 or higher during the Asian session) leaving a lot of shorts including me locked in their positions. @chartwatchers: whats your feeling?
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chartwatchers PRO syron
7 months ago
Case closed. Erdogan is stronger than ever. This will be used up for a big attack on gold tomorrow at the open. 0:00 GMT.
They will shake out the bulls beginning of next week.
+1 Reply
syron chartwatchers
7 months ago
Hm, let's hope so. I'm a bit concerned Asian retail traders will drive price up during the night to 1345 or even higher. Let's see. I agree on the bigger picture we will go below 1300 before the next upcycle will start.
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verlin03
7 months ago
Wait until news breaks that Russia is behind the coup. If this gets out of hand some of you shorts should consider buying physical gold online to cover :)
+1 Reply
chartwatchers PRO verlin03
7 months ago
LOL. I think you watch too many RAMBO movies.
+1 Reply
verlin03 chartwatchers
7 months ago
You still think yellen cuts? its all fun and games. Your very talented. That's why it's fun poking you when your wrong :)
+2 Reply
chartwatchers PRO verlin03
7 months ago
I'm 10000% sure there will be a rate increase on the 27th July. And next week she will give some information about it. THey don't like to do a sudden rate hike.
Always preparing the market before.
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Grand_loup chartwatchers
7 months ago
How low can gold go then if it happens? Below 1300 or below 1200?
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chartwatchers PRO Grand_loup
7 months ago
A maximum is a marginal break of the pre-Brexit low: 1250$
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verlin03 verlin03
7 months ago
Hmm... Do you predict these things based off these DCL of gold? Just an update... Incirlik has been shut down. Power cut. Turkey is claiming aircraft from the base were used during the coup.
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RazvanIon chartwatchers
7 months ago
Americans dont understand Russia! And this is VERY wrong!
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verlin03 chartwatchers
7 months ago
Plot thickens. Turkey's ministry of labor accuses US of coup :) did you know that the US houses nukes at Incirlik?
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waverider1
7 months ago
anyone short gold here is very brave. all I can say.
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Mannnassser
7 months ago
Arpi .. I know a Palestinian lady originally from Armenia called Arpi,, .. As for politics .. it is clear that Germany and Frace stand behind the coup in order to control the boarders with Syria and Iraq to fight terrorists. As for economics ... i think that the overall goal was to allow Turkey to join EU after Brexit knowing that people in EU are getting older and need young labor. As for gold ... recovering from 1320 to 1337 is a good chance for longs to bull if Asia confirms the transaction. I agree with your shorting idea only if Yellen gives signs for the next rate hike but gold could be reaching 1375 at time of yellen speach.
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epalazzo Mannnassser
7 months ago
I guess Arpi is a diminutive or fondling form for Arpad. It is a male name.
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chartwatchers PRO epalazzo
7 months ago
This is right. Not old lady. :)
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epalazzo
7 months ago
If there will be a rate hike it means bull for dxy and more bears for gold. How long do you think it will last? Or the two will go up hand in hand?
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chartwatchers PRO epalazzo
7 months ago
1-1.5 weeks maximum. Gold has to break below 1300. Dxy must break up from this daily consolidation box. I will post both charts on Sunday.
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epalazzo chartwatchers
7 months ago
Thanks.
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verlin03
7 months ago
My 2 cents if the bears come out in force to preempt a bull coup, it will present a buying opportunity. Even though the coup has failed the result is uncertainty. Us/Turkey relations are in limbo and nukes are on the line. To me the coup was staged by the Turkish government to consolidate power. I think the US government realizes this and really doesn't know how to handle it. What do you guys think?
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Staxs verlin03
7 months ago
The world had changed a great deal in the last 15 years with regard to how governments can indoctrinate the masses through state television etc. The attempted coup followed the old format, lock down major transport routes, control the state TV and get s statement out. Although they managed to shut off social media, the masses have already formed their opinion of what they want through the day to day interaction with their friends + social media. The dinosaurs that attempted the coup have lost touch with this process and believed they could control the masses and gain their support as Turkey used to do.

Erdogan is deeply flawed and cocking the country up but it will be the people that drive the change and not a few Elite members of the Military, they severely miss-read the masses.

There might be a minor flurry in to gold from a few who are jittery but this time next week it will all be forgotten unless the Kurds start cause some trouble which seems unlikely, they have their hands full fighting ISIS. The Kurds will probably look for "Payment" ie land or their own state once the ISIS issue is resolved (5-10 yeaars?)

Gold does seem to be bullish now but with FED rate rise probably expected, S&P breaking out and US economy looking fairly strong gold looks to be destined for a fall for a bit. Maybe to the top of the bear channel. US seems to be doing a lot better than Europe, Japan as always is flat, China is now almost a grown up country (ie ~5% GDP around the corner). The Dollar may get quite strong over the next couple of years which does not seem to help gold.
+1 Reply
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