FX:XAUUSD   Gold / U.S. Dollar
6935 89 80
It seems we have started a clear move down into the DCL. It should last for 4-5 days.
We have the blue double top which broke down its neckline (blue) and was tested back by a bear flag yesterday.
And the bear flag broke down in the night. We are heading down to 1300$.

Perma bulls are quiet now - I know they are reading me - so it's a good sign that they are freaking out with their longs and don't have time for the contrarian posts here.

The target depends on how fast is the move. I will post here when I think we bottomed.
This decline will also affect GDX             , GDXJ             wihich will have its compulsory decline now. And DUST JDST             can have a pop. Miners are terribly overbought. I think it's time to give a humble pie to the bulls with a scary decline in the following 4-5 days. I can read at a lot of forums that gold/silver miners cannot fall. Let's see are they untouchable or not.
Comment: Many asked about the BOE decision today (3 hrs from now)
I don't think anything can stop gold from the decline now.
In the next 3 hours we should print 3 green candles on the hourly chart.
There could be a good entry point for the shorts.
snapshot
Comment: I think BOE will not cut today. USA futures are pulled up hard.
They are preparing for that scenario. So we could have a little pop in gold after the BOE decision.
Maybe 1235. And tomorrow the decline could continue again.

Someone asked:
Rate cut: gold might fall more. Or it could be in the price already.
No rate change: gold will pop for a few hours.
Comment: We tagged the 20 EMA on the daily chart. I think we have a little bounce here.
I closed half of my short positions at 1325.
snapshot
Comment: 2-3 days and we are at the 50 EMA. As you see it's not a freefall just a correction caused by the lack of the buyers. They will come in around 1300$.
Comment: Bouncing from the daily 20 EMA. Just as I thought the first dip buyers had arrived.
It's too early to go long now. This will be a serious DCL.
Comment:
snapshot
Comment: Told you it's not over yet.
If we close near the weekly minimum next week we are going to see some real blood on goldstreet.
Comment: Let's see what Yellen's slaves are telling us about the July rate hike.
Comment: No better chance for a rate hike than 27th July. Elections are months away, stock markets are at all time highs...
My 2 cents if the bears come out in force to preempt a bull coup, it will present a buying opportunity. Even though the coup has failed the result is uncertainty. Us/Turkey relations are in limbo and nukes are on the line. To me the coup was staged by the Turkish government to consolidate power. I think the US government realizes this and really doesn't know how to handle it. What do you guys think?
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Staxs PRO verlin03
The world had changed a great deal in the last 15 years with regard to how governments can indoctrinate the masses through state television etc. The attempted coup followed the old format, lock down major transport routes, control the state TV and get s statement out. Although they managed to shut off social media, the masses have already formed their opinion of what they want through the day to day interaction with their friends + social media. The dinosaurs that attempted the coup have lost touch with this process and believed they could control the masses and gain their support as Turkey used to do.

Erdogan is deeply flawed and cocking the country up but it will be the people that drive the change and not a few Elite members of the Military, they severely miss-read the masses.

There might be a minor flurry in to gold from a few who are jittery but this time next week it will all be forgotten unless the Kurds start cause some trouble which seems unlikely, they have their hands full fighting ISIS. The Kurds will probably look for "Payment" ie land or their own state once the ISIS issue is resolved (5-10 yeaars?)

Gold does seem to be bullish now but with FED rate rise probably expected, S&P breaking out and US economy looking fairly strong gold looks to be destined for a fall for a bit. Maybe to the top of the bear channel. US seems to be doing a lot better than Europe, Japan as always is flat, China is now almost a grown up country (ie ~5% GDP around the corner). The Dollar may get quite strong over the next couple of years which does not seem to help gold.
+1 Reply
If there will be a rate hike it means bull for dxy and more bears for gold. How long do you think it will last? Or the two will go up hand in hand?
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1-1.5 weeks maximum. Gold has to break below 1300. Dxy must break up from this daily consolidation box. I will post both charts on Sunday.
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epalazzo chartwatchers
Thanks.
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Arpi .. I know a Palestinian lady originally from Armenia called Arpi,, .. As for politics .. it is clear that Germany and Frace stand behind the coup in order to control the boarders with Syria and Iraq to fight terrorists. As for economics ... i think that the overall goal was to allow Turkey to join EU after Brexit knowing that people in EU are getting older and need young labor. As for gold ... recovering from 1320 to 1337 is a good chance for longs to bull if Asia confirms the transaction. I agree with your shorting idea only if Yellen gives signs for the next rate hike but gold could be reaching 1375 at time of yellen speach.
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epalazzo Mannnassser
I guess Arpi is a diminutive or fondling form for Arpad. It is a male name.
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This is right. Not old lady. :)
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anyone short gold here is very brave. all I can say.
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Wait until news breaks that Russia is behind the coup. If this gets out of hand some of you shorts should consider buying physical gold online to cover :)
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