MarcoJarquin

Observations on XAU/USD

Short
FX_IDC:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
I consider the following idea a high risk trade. I am actually testing it in a demo account. Light blue box highlighted between (D) and (E) is a price reversal zone observed in the monthly chart since March 2014, tested 4 times. I see a consolidation happening just above Fibo 23,60% of wave (A)-(C) which is confluent with Fibo 38.20% of wave (B)-(C). External divergence in RSI @H4 between (F) and (C) proved to be effective on reversing the trend. Internal divergence in RSI @H4 between points (G) and (H) makes me think that downtrend will continue. The question is where would the TP be placed? And there is where I consider the high risk: I'd aim somewhere around 1,380 (almost 300 pips below current price) where Fibo 61.8% of (B)-(C), Fibo 38,2% of (A)-(C) and Pivot Point 1,368 observed in the monthly chart are confluent. So, in order to reach this point the price would have to go all the way through the price reversal zone. On top of this, SL would have to be set above (C), say around 1,442. This would mean close to 330 pips SL, making the Reward/Risk ratio to be <1. So… anyway… just wanted to share my observations on this one. Would love to hear your thoughts.

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