XAU/USD: Possible counts, structures and levels to watch

Several possible counts on the weekly:
1) Wave 1 - ABC flat to 2 - wave 1 of 3 ongoing...
2) Wave 1 expanding leading diagonal - wave 5 almost done...
3) Wave 1 - expanding triangle - wave D almost done...

There might be others, please share!

Other things to consider:

• The longterm 'down' trendline is getting close..., may draw price in to test it..., Brexit might trigger a breakout...
  
• Daily BB tested today, 6 bullish candles in a row already, 7 starting off now (FOMC spike might continue a bit...)
  
• Former high at 1303.62
  
• Weekly BB closeby around the former high
  
• Weekly MA(200) closeby, currently at around 1313...
  
• Daily Stochastics overbought, RSI not quite there..., no divergence...
  
• Weekly stochastics has turned up, both stochastics and RSI have room to move upward...
  

Make what you want of this, I think some retracement to the downside is due soon, hard to say how big it could be with the referendum coming up....

Trade active:

Tested the 200MA so entered a small short at 1313.96...
Starting small for now..., will add depending on PA

Comment:

Daily / weekly:

4H show a nice pinbar, so looks promising, first fast EMA coming up for support, we'll see...:

Comment:

15min. chart, wouldn't it be nice to get a working H&S out of this..., just a thought...:

Comment:

That's a strong bullish candle on the daily..., it's not over yet...

Comment:

Probably safe to say the weekly 200MA did the job and triggered a bearish reversal, all counts are still valid, shorts are therefor preferred under normal circumstances but with the Brexit referendum in 2 days there is no sane way to enter any, other than very short-term, trades based on this. I have close all but a few positions and deleted most of my pending orders in preparation of the referendum...

The extra volatility during and shortly after the referendum could surely provide great opportunities but could also prove disastrous if one doesn't know how to adjust their trading accordingly... This will no doubt be an interesting week, safe trading to all!

Comment:

Updated chart:

Comment:

It seems x marked the spot allright..., if this sets through we could be in a wave 3..., on to the trendline and likely above it... We'll see what tomorrow brings...

Comment:

We've already gotten very close to the trendline..., there's a good chance that we will break it!
This means we probably have scenario 1 on our hands, wave 1 with ABC irregular/expanding flat and we are now in wave 3... I will update again later...

Comment:

Update:
Consolidation....
Daily bearish candle, but not convincing, I need a clear break and close below the weekly MA(200) and a clear break and close below 1300 (preferably below 1295) to consider new shorts, until then I'm biased to the long side..., maybe tomorrow will tell...
Weekly might form a doji but it's too early to tell..., not sure if we will this week break out of the range formed by the previous week's candle...

Comment:

Getting close to a very important trendline people..., keep a close eye on this...:

Comment:

Moment of truth may be near...

Continued idea here: