chartwatchers
Long

GOLD- The Edge of Breakout

FX:XAUUSD   Gold/U.S. Dollar
4075 59 63
a month ago
Time to update gold             again as finally something important is happening. On the 19th of October we printed a daily swing. There was no follow through after the swing, but that's how gold             works. We entered into a flag immediately.
At the bottom of the intermediate decline we printed a triangle. The triangles many times act as a continuation pattern. But in gold             it's usually a sign as the banks are pushing the price back again and again to load up more gold             and give themselves a possibility to buy mining shares at lower prices.

This time the triangle was not enough they've forced gold             into a bull flag (green) to continue their work.
In the last few hours the flag broke out.
I think this the breakout what we need.

The pattern is very similar to the last August pattern. There was also a triangle and a bull flag before gold             broke out finally. I will post the screenshot below.

I'm still sure no lower leg is coming as the EW traders are waiting for that.... Gold             will just blast off leaving a lot of traders back at the station.
a month ago
Comment: Notice how similar was the situation here:
snapshot
a month ago
Comment: DXY printed the daily swing.
It could be good for gold...
snapshot
a month ago
Comment: Right now we are fighting with the 200 MA on the weekly chart...
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a month ago
Comment: It's a possible back test of the breakout right now at 1270$
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a month ago
Comment: I'm adding to the core position today which I'm planning to close at the daily cycle top in 15 days.
a month ago
Comment: It also might be the back test of the bull flag as DS77 mentioned below the miners post.
a month ago
Comment: It seems yesterday banksters turned back the gold train to the last station to pick up some mates who were left behind. Hopefully we are ready by now and finally we can start this rally to the daily cycle top in the next 10-15 days
a month ago
Comment: Finaly TP Paradigma's software also showing into the long direction.
He is waiting for a long entry...
GOLD / How it is - risk free? / Afterglow!
harryexe
a month ago
I'm with you! Holding a long from 1260
+1 Reply
koastech
a month ago
Thanks for the update!
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Parabolica
a month ago
As an EW trader I do not wait for for final leg, final leg happened with the 100 dollars decline
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bertcoin PRO
a month ago
I hope so, because I got into NUGT too early. My own fault. I have PPP (Personal Problem with Patience). Doing some bull put spreads on GLD to try to help make it up. :)
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bertcoin PRO bertcoin
a month ago
LMAO. Wrong idea. I was picking on myself for LABU not NUGT. Jeez - my NUGTs up 23%. Woo hoo!
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Yaba PRO
a month ago
Switching from 4h to weekly/daily looks like this is just a stop in down trend for at least another (1-3months). In any case good luck with your predictions, and good luck with trading to all.
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allanrcferreira Yaba
a month ago
I don't see nothing new to think that something has changed at all. In 4h-chart the last candle is still under 100 - EMA. I really prefer to wait this candle closes over the 100 - EMA before buy. Maybe this happen in Asia session. And 1287 as target in 200- EMA in 4h chart.
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Yaba PRO allanrcferreira
a month ago
My thoughts are the same shorter term, high 1274 (few days ago) or 1286-1287 area. or max 1303, but longer term, trending into 11th-15h of November trend is toward 1200 (my count), lower low or high in january (1100) and then starting feb 2017 up up up...for the fun of it i just shorted with sl 2$ above 1274.59...(Thursday high). Lets play :)
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joseaciar
a month ago
Thank you Arpi !!
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Ronnee
a month ago
Thanks again APRi , holding from 49 an 61. Will load another 2day...once again thanks , much appreciated by me anyway..the patience you have shown me is great..NGas has been amazing!!! Should I keep holding to your TP 2400.? Nearly cashed half last night, but held all thank goodness ...haha cheers Ron NZ
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shero
a month ago
The question is will we see 1360-1370 before FED raise interest in December if Hilary won ?
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DS77
a month ago
So it's not "blasting off and leaving traders at the station"?
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DS77
a month ago
Should have posted that in this idea... sorry again for cluttering the other thread.

If I could learn how to post charts with my phone I'd be dangerous! Lol
+1 Reply
Nightstar DS77
a month ago
Apology accepted :)
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DS77 Nightstar
a month ago
Lol.. you're no so secretly obsessed with me :-)
I accept your apology that I just ramble and have no insite. Gee, looky here... a retest of the 1269 just as my first scenario predicted!

Jokes aside.. I'm done with the off topic comments. I'll briefly just state my input and keep it to that. Good luck!
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Ni_Toni
a month ago
How about a Retrace to 1260/56

snapshot
+1 Reply
chartwatchers TOP Ni_Toni
a month ago
All depends what is USA's plan with gold today.
If it goes back there it's not too bullish
+1 Reply
VirtualFax Ni_Toni
a month ago
I'm also closely watching the channel. But there might be a chance for Gold to get a lift from Dollar if it manages to break the TL. Despite the bullish triple crossover of the MAs in Oct, the DXY indicators seem to be slowly turning bearish...

snapshot
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caneman
a month ago
Not sure what you mean by "the daily swing"? Is this similar to the concept of the "pivot" price? Thanks.
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caneman caneman
a month ago
Never mind, I get... swing reversal... dxy printed a lower high and lower low with a close below the prior low... the daily swing bar, along with the prior day's inverted hammer, gave an indication that the uptrend is reversing
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NihalCassim
a month ago
It's just unable to get through 1277. Once done the next 20 bucks should come with much less pain. I've added beyond my capacity, is going to be make or break. Hanging with you arpi!
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TPparadigma
a month ago
Weekly transitions broken downwards!
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GoGreen
a month ago
I can see double top in one hour chart, are you still see that oil will go up?
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GoGreen GoGreen
a month ago
sorry I mean Gold
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BjornPfaff
a month ago
Lower then 1270 pal , But im long now , Now dear friend you are on the right track
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pbartashevich PRO BjornPfaff
a month ago
You sure? :)
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kizly BjornPfaff
a month ago
If Bjorn is long then its certainly time to go long.
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Don't ignore it please. Reversal zone is orange box.
snapshot
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pbartashevich PRO pbartashevich
a month ago
I tried to be very precise. GDX target reversal price is $22.10. Will be watching it closely.
snapshot
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Perseus
a month ago
Wait we're now listening to TP Paradgma? I just got much less confident in my long position.
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TPparadigma Perseus
a month ago
When you will give one decent sell setup that will make money for your followers, rather than being a screaming kid and calling wrong directions, then you can talk.
How I deal with people like you is very simple!
Open 20k real trading account and compete one month. Who makes the most % in return. If you can make it, and be the KING after this competition, I apologize to you, and shake your hand!
Accept the chalenge or go home!
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Perseus TPparadigma
a month ago
Unfortunately I have a full-time job, and can't day trade. I currently trade with much more than 20k, however I strictly trade equities and when I have time leveraged ETF's.

Call me dumb here, but I can't listen to someone who believes fundamentals have no place in trading. Anything but a short-term analysis should include a balance of both fundamentals, and technicals.

I can't follow someone who believes the Brexit or interest rates or any other significant item doesn't have an effect on gold.
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TPparadigma Perseus
a month ago
Again proves close minded fact! You got things TOTALY wrong.. your interpretation to what I said is ABSOLUTELY wrong. Because of that mindset, you still have day job! If you would be open mind person.. you would make a lot more from trading and could quit a J.O.B.

good Luck!
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Perseus TPparadigma
a month ago
You said you called the "buy" the same day as the huge $100 jump from the Brexit vote purely through technicals, and called me delusional when I said otherwise... Can't really misunderstand that.

And I want a day job? I would never quit my career to day trade, just unfortunate I can't find time to do both.

However, I'm looking forward to your analysis on the day of the interest rate decision when gold either sells off or gets bought up like crazy. Excited to see how you spin that one as a purely technical event!


Good Luck!
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TPparadigma Perseus
a month ago
I feel sorry for your loss on Brexit, being short! You will make it back!
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Perseus TPparadigma
a month ago
I've been long miners since March because I've been betting against the US/Global economy, and interest rate decisions.

I've posted my most recent trade where I spell out exactly why I bought that stock (fundamental reason, with a small trend line), and am currently up 15% on that trade over a 3 week period.

Don't feel bad for me, I've had a great year betting against the economy! Thanks!
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VRShaiju Perseus
a month ago
There is no issue listening someone who knows how to trade gold. To clarify the signal ask the author. Readers can be wrong always
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Perseus VRShaiju
a month ago
Are you guys promoting a similar trading platform? You sure did come quick to his defense...

Also, I've ignored you on TV, I figured that would hide my comments from you but I guess I was wrong.
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VRShaiju Perseus
a month ago
I never promoting "Fundamental" trading method on "Gold" which I know that it "does not" work. I don't know about another market.
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Perseus VRShaiju
a month ago
Fundamental doesn't work? Are we talking short-term or long-term?

Day trading I agree, don't trade gold fundamentally short-term, but long-term trading there's proof that fundamental's work. I mean there's nothing to argue in that area. It's literally a fact.
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RamzaBehoulve Perseus
a month ago
TP is intraday mostly, so there is always insight to be gained short term. If you are almost all day in front of the charts, you are not going to miss the buy bus anyway, so might as well short a bit until it happens.
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NihalCassim
a month ago
Today we are going to rip through the resistance at 1277 and the 200DMA. Get ready guys.
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kaotic363 PRO
a month ago
They just keep killing it whenever gold gets to $1270-$1275.. Five times this week so far..
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USSRandolph
a month ago
What ever happened to the supportive, learning and educational this site used to be? It's become an adversarial, opponent bashing place full of hate and discontent that helps no one. I wish those of you who like to troll and engage in such would leave and find another place to spread your BS. This site has lost many good and bright people because of you and those like you. I single no one out. When I say "you", you know who you are. What a waste.
+2 Reply
Nightstar USSRandolph
a month ago
Do you finally understand why I am sometimes (but not always) inclined to tell others to F* off? You gotta fight the good fight Military man :)
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USSRandolph Nightstar
a month ago
I try
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investment6300
a month ago
It is just unbelievable the manipulation. Looking back with a bull or bear with ICL, price always shoot up in a week. It has not stayed like this since 2008 as far back as I can see. They are seriously working the gold down for some reason, so much uncertainty in many ways and they can still keep it down and while others possible are seeing war, ect..........
+1 Reply
saint_athur
a month ago
Waiting my last bull train at 1257. Cheers
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Nightstar
a month ago
There's a few Analysts out there that are calling for one more low and I'm almost inclined to agree at this stage of the game.. Silver is flagging which has bearish implications.. Gold is being capped @ 1275 by the Bullion Banks ahead of the Elections, and the Miners are signalling the possibility of one more low before the big push up. Proceed with caution from here on out!

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NihalCassim Nightstar
a month ago
Youre right, objectively, sellers are far stronger. We're in a narrowing range. It's going to break sharply in either direction. To go up lots of short sellers are needed to be squeezed and to go down a lot of leveraged buyers are needed to panic. I think we have the latter. And these longs are waiting for china to buy or the USD to collapse.
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Nightstar NihalCassim
a month ago
I currently have a shit load of JNUG so I'm hoping I'm wrong :) We shall see.
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investment6300 Nightstar
a month ago
Same boat! Amazed at length of time in ICL mentioned above, we need to go up some time with all long term outlooks but those banks you just see them pushing down
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USSRandolph Nightstar
a month ago
Me too w NUGT. Prob is the longer we hold a 3x etf, value declines, even if gold doesn't. So, I'll end up selling and eating a loss to make up somewhere else. I keep telling myself to quit gold, too much unpredictable manipulation.
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USSRandolph USSRandolph
a month ago
As soon as I do it goes up!
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USSRandolph USSRandolph
a month ago
I'm out
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allanrcferreira
a month ago
Bears are controlling this game since 1370. Is everything that I know. Every attempt to achieve 1275 was capped.
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Labworx
a month ago
I'm short on GOLD
http://screencast.com/t/wFuXqmHUYn3Z
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USSRandolph
a month ago
US Gross Domestic Product (GDP ) up 2.9 pct as of 30 min ago. Looking forward to next NFP data next week, that will likely be good increasing yet again prospect for interest rate hike before end of year. NOT GOOD for gold. We knew this was coming. This is another nail in the coffin for gold. You know where to go from here. I'm not making any recommendations but I KNOW what I will and won't do. Good luck and happy trading.
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USSRandolph
a month ago
Gold up $16, NUGT hardly at all. Miners not following. Any ideas?
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