FX:XAUUSD   Gold / U.S. Dollar
536 2 21
Today is the typical example why shorting gold             is not going to be easy.
First we had a pennant with a breakout (red), with no follow through. Now it is forming into a wedge .
It seems that it wants to break down from the wedge but I'm quite sure that's not going to happen.
I think we are going to move in the wedge making a false breakout to 1310 to take out the short's stops then the real decline could start.
We had every signs last week Friday which normally would predict that the decline is coming. But we are in a new bull market it will surprise shorts during this decline. So don't wait for a decline what we had October 2015.. That was a decline in the bear market after a bear market rally.

The decline timwise should last till May when this intermediate cycle bottoms around 1140-1150.
The way down should look like as you see on the chart: you cannot pull the stops because they will stop you out ..
Only the last one or two days will be a real falling of the price to get every bear on board who will think we are going below 1000. But that's not going to happen.
Comment: Just a thought:
Monday we closed above the 20 EMA
Today (Tuesday) morning we broke below the 20 EMA but now we are again above it.
Totally agreed.
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Agree, but I actually think it's the retail bulls they are trying to scare out just now. They are almost there with me. A daily close below 1243 will be my trigger to sell my longs and wait for the retrace around 1150.
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