I set all the important levels for the next 3-5 weeks decline on the picture.
Don't forget: most of the market is still long. Dip buyers will come again and again till the 4th level. Smartmoney will be positioned for the next 3-4 years in this month. So it's not going to be an easy ride. When the 4th level breaks and we enter into the 5th wave we will have 5-6 days to exit the positions near the lows.
1st level: 50 and the lower of the red channel. We can see here how strong dumb money is. No smartmoney will be buying at this level. The buyers will be retail traders who think it's a flag and we are heading up from here again. There can be a bounce we will see how strong they are. But this "bull flag" will break to the downside because it's an artificial pattern.
2nd level: 100 , 19.04. low, blue . This is a very important level. We will stop here for a while . We will have a bounce here (4-5 days) and most probably this will be the site for the DCL.
3rd level : 28.03 DCL and 200 . Breaking the 200 is an important part of the decline. Smartmoney will be positioning here.
4th level: 16.02. low . Noone thinks now that this is the level could break. I think it will. Sentiment will turn here. The bears will come out of their caves and everybody and his dog will start to short gold . That is the panic selling stage : The 5th wave. All the retail traders will close their long positions. Everybody will talk about gold is going to 1000$. I would like to close all my DUST longs and XAUUSD core positions here in this panic selling.
Buy when everyone else is selling. Sell when everyone else is buying. This is the recipe of the big money.
If we are lucky the lows can be at 1120-1140$
When the lows are in we will enter into a 2-3 weeks of bottoming process before the next rally to the upside. Same frustrating story we had the last 2 weeks. Gold bottoming and topping process is very slow.
Don't try to pick a bottom or go long for the pops. You could be toasted...
It's way too early to go long now. We are in the 1st wave of the intermediate decline.
The only thing what I could agree is closing some shorts and sell it again at higher prices.
You risk not making money by closing a winner position but at least you will not lose.
Maybe we drop down to the 2nd level.
There I would agree to take some profits on the part of the position. But only xauusd. Not DUST and JDST. These will go crazy today. The retail traders will realize that they've left alone with their shares.
Everybody will look for the EXIT door.
Dollar is helping the pop...
I think we will have a pop here in gold. So all of you want to exit and wanna get back 8-10$ higher just half down the position.
I'm buying back some XAUUSD now at 1246$.
Those who are loosing patience can short now. Be ready that we might take out the stops above 1255$. So we might pop up to 1257-58$ .
Retail traders are fed with some gold. They are hoping in a bounce from the trendline.
That's not going to happen. It was dangerous to loose the position here so I tried to get back as soon as possible. Half of the position made almost 10$ plus.