chartwatchers
Short

GOLD - THE BEAR AWAKENS

FX:XAUUSD   Gold/U.S. Dollar
7664 109 90
8 months ago
After 2 weeks of whipsaws and smartmoney tricks gold             finally turned down from the upper trendline and broke down the 10.05. low yesterday.
I set all the important levels for the next 3-5 weeks decline on the picture.
Don't forget: most of the market is still long. Dip buyers will come again and again till the 4th level. Smartmoney will be positioned for the next 3-4 years in this month. So it's not going to be an easy ride. When the 4th level breaks and we enter into the 5th wave we will have 5-6 days to exit the positions near the lows.

1st level: 50 EMA and the lower trendline of the red channel. We can see here how strong dumb money is. No smartmoney will be buying at this level. The buyers will be retail traders who think it's a flag and we are heading up from here again. There can be a bounce we will see how strong they are. But this "bull flag" will break to the downside because it's an artificial pattern.
2nd level: 100 EMA, 19.04. low, blue trendline . This is a very important level. We will stop here for a while . We will have a bounce here (4-5 days) and most probably this will be the site for the DCL.
3rd level : 28.03 DCL and 200 EMA. Breaking the 200 EMA is an important part of the decline. Smartmoney will be positioning here.
4th level: 16.02. low . Noone thinks now that this is the level could break. I think it will. Sentiment will turn bearish here. The bears will come out of their caves and everybody and his dog will start to short gold             . That is the panic selling stage : The 5th wave. All the retail traders will close their long positions. Everybody will talk about gold             is going to 1000$. I would like to close all my DUST longs and XAUUSD             core positions here in this panic selling.

Buy when everyone else is selling. Sell when everyone else is buying. This is the recipe of the big money.
If we are lucky the lows can be at 1120-1140$
When the lows are in we will enter into a 2-3 weeks of bottoming process before the next rally to the upside. Same frustrating story we had the last 2 weeks. Gold             bottoming and topping process is very slow.
8 months ago
Comment: Strong decline. Thats what I was talking about...
Important!
Don't try to pick a bottom or go long for the pops. You could be toasted...
It's way too early to go long now. We are in the 1st wave of the intermediate decline.
The only thing what I could agree is closing some shorts and sell it again at higher prices.
You risk not making money by closing a winner position but at least you will not lose.
8 months ago
Comment: We just reached the first level right now. (50 EMA + trendline)
Crazy fast.
snapshot
8 months ago
Comment: I'm waiting for the US market open. If stocks starts to rally today more decline is coming in gold.
Maybe we drop down to the 2nd level.
There I would agree to take some profits on the part of the position. But only xauusd. Not DUST and JDST. These will go crazy today. The retail traders will realize that they've left alone with their shares.
Everybody will look for the EXIT door.
8 months ago
Comment: DUST +9%.
Sweet.
8 months ago
Comment: Retail traders are buying here like crazy. :)
Dollar is helping the pop...
snapshot
8 months ago
Comment: OK.
I think we will have a pop here in gold. So all of you want to exit and wanna get back 8-10$ higher just half down the position.
I'm buying back some XAUUSD now at 1246$.
8 months ago
Comment: THe question is are we turning down from the 10 EMA hourly (1251) or 20EMA hourly(1255).
snapshot
8 months ago
Comment: Get ready. It might be just a short pop up to the 20 EMA...
8 months ago
Comment: We closed above the 10 EMA again. Still waiting for a pop to 1255$.
Those who are loosing patience can short now. Be ready that we might take out the stops above 1255$. So we might pop up to 1257-58$ .
8 months ago
Comment: GO SHORT NOW !
8 months ago
Comment: Look at the volume.
Retail traders are fed with some gold. They are hoping in a bounce from the trendline.
That's not going to happen. It was dangerous to loose the position here so I tried to get back as soon as possible. Half of the position made almost 10$ plus.
snapshot
8 months ago
Comment: Key reversal from the 50 EMA...
snapshot
GoldMan06 PRO
8 months ago
Thanks for the levels - I have the same lvls - last 1111 :) GL
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Domsn
8 months ago
is it to soon to buy now? should i wait for the first wave breakdown? (sry newbie here :D ,but already in the babpips shool)
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chartwatchers PRO Domsn
8 months ago
Yes it's too early. We will be buying at the end of June again.
It will be a strong decline. We are short now in gold.
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Ronnee
8 months ago
Hi, Ron here, how do you think your coming elections. Considering, it appears both the main candidates are not liked very much!! , will have on this gold market,,stocks and US dollar?? Excellent analysis so far, hope it continues for u and your followers. Cheers Ron nz
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chartwatchers PRO Ronnee
8 months ago
I think the US Govt doesn't want to run into the elections with a falling stock market. So I don't think market will collapse before the US elections.
THey will try to weaken the dollar also which is important for the US export companies.
ANd gold is just coming out from its bear market. Trump would be better for a gold rally in the future.
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EnzoCaluzzi chartwatchers
8 months ago
salve chart quindi in base al ragionamento che lei ha fatto per oro ritiene che i mercati azionari saranno positivi fino alle elezioni americane in ottobre-novembre
non tiene in considerazione brexit e grexit
la ringrazio
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captain_smollett PRO chartwatchers
8 months ago
Trump it will be, IMO
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chartwatchers PRO captain_smollett
8 months ago
Good for Hungary. Clinton hates us.
+1 Reply
captain_smollett PRO chartwatchers
8 months ago
I think Clinton hates everybody but herself =) She had a psycological trauma so we can´t blame her on this...
+1 Reply
the_roggy chartwatchers
8 months ago
Hmm... Trump doesn't quite like Belgium... apparently I'm living in a hell hole :-)...
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ag1ga1ga PRO the_roggy
8 months ago
Nothing wrong with Belgium
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vchelimella
8 months ago
Awesome dude , you are the best but i have one question the rate at which JDST is increasing is quite less compared to Gold decline ? I know this decays over time do you see its hitting $5 in 2 to 3 weeks with all this decay thing ?
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vchelimella vchelimella
8 months ago
I meant $50 in 2 to 3 weeks
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chartwatchers PRO vchelimella
8 months ago
It will run today. I want to see the first 2-3 days then I will post the targets. It's too early now to think about that.
Sit tight in DUST and JDST. Let your winners run . Minimum 2 weeks from now.
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Smorfe
8 months ago
Thanks for your crystal clear explanations and charts. Keep up your excellent work, buddy.
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chartwatchers PRO Smorfe
8 months ago
Thanks. :)
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Narthex
8 months ago
im short since 1280. and im learning so much by watching your ideas :)
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chartwatchers PRO Narthex
8 months ago
Beautiful! :)
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perdp PRO
8 months ago
Like your approach on charts, learning alot, thanks alot for sharing!
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mabaert PRO
8 months ago
Pull back and then short again?
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SmilingSword
8 months ago
Tq been holding with u good job
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tcp007
8 months ago
It took awhile to hit, but you were all over this call. Congrats on your analysis, sir! Very nice indeed.
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dizel100
8 months ago
Your predictions come true! Observed Golden falls and put money in your pocket!
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piaspa
8 months ago
I have just been destroyed yesterday/today. Time to join the bear camp with the deep correction in mind. So far you have been spot on. All my analysis and calculations were fine untill we have reached 1300 and when I have observed speculative capital tricks. My strategy and partial gains were shattered and proved worthless against the tricks of smart money. Waiting for clear 50MA breach to join your camp Arpi.
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chartwatchers PRO piaspa
8 months ago
Welcome to the dark side!
Just carefully here. We might have a pop from the 50 EMA. So dont go short immediately.
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piaspa chartwatchers
8 months ago
Yeah I will wait till moving avarage clears. Thanks for the tip Arpi, So far well done on your analysis, I was actually looking forward to a deep correction but was expecting it after 1300 breach. Then funny things started happening (market trending up against USD and bad news etc...) Today I found you posts and I cought up with the explenation (I knew something was not right, but you explained it perfectly) Keep up the good work mate.
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AntonBilan
8 months ago
can we short now?
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chartwatchers PRO AntonBilan
8 months ago
Wait a bit. We might have more pop here.
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keefer0
8 months ago
Retail traders see 1245 as a big support and are looking for a retrace to 1263ish, just FYI. however, GDX is closing the gap this morning so it could be a good time to look into adding DUST if you do not have it or sold yesterday.
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alanprotrader
8 months ago
where to TP if we buy now?
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chartwatchers PRO alanprotrader
8 months ago
Just closed some shorts and want to sell again 8-10$ higher.
Without short positions I wouldn't go long.
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alanprotrader chartwatchers
8 months ago
ok, i am short from 1246, i will hold. My mistake short at these level without wait the pullback
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ice_holly01 alanprotrader
8 months ago
I shorted @1246 as well. :(
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saint_athur chartwatchers
8 months ago
1250 or 1253 arpi?
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chartwatchers PRO saint_athur
8 months ago
I wait the next hourly candle and get back there
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shinsky
8 months ago
That was a brilliant call!
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kj23ca15
8 months ago
Brilliant Jobs Bro!! Have been with you since $1286 but seems the miner still very reluctant let go of their share. I am expecting as least $18~19 for DUST at this point of XAUUSD.
Could u explain what're the meaning of the 19.04 28.03 & 16.02 in your chart? Also, do u expect the panic selling occur at the end of June?
Thanks again!
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SharkbaitAl kj23ca15
8 months ago
Those are the dates of the previous DCLs (daily cycle lows)...02/16, 03/28, 04/19 if you are in America :)
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kj23ca15 SharkbaitAl
8 months ago
Thx:) Looks like I am thinking too much... I am here in Houston
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kj23ca15 SharkbaitAl
8 months ago
We typically put the month at the front you know LOL
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chartwatchers PRO kj23ca15
8 months ago
Houston you've got a problem. LOL
+1 Reply
Domsn kj23ca15
8 months ago
yeah... and thats fucking dump ;-)
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chartwatchers PRO kj23ca15
8 months ago
Thanks for the support kj23ca15.
Yes panic selling will come around that time. But we will see in real time .
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XTAL.ball
8 months ago
Where do you see the price of DUST and JDST when gold enters $1120-$1140. Thanks again for sharing your excellent insights here!
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chartwatchers PRO XTAL.ball
8 months ago
I need more time to see that. HOw fast DUST is rallying with the falling gold. 1-2 days more.
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XTAL.ball chartwatchers
8 months ago
Even a rough guess would be helpful. Does JDST go to $50 or $200?
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chartwatchers PRO XTAL.ball
8 months ago
Between 87-110$ is very probable.
+2 Reply
XTAL.ball chartwatchers
8 months ago
Thanks!
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Perseus
8 months ago
When are you thinking of shorting again, 1255?
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chartwatchers PRO Perseus
8 months ago
THe question is are we turning down from the 10 EMA hourly (1251) or 20EMA hourly(1255).
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Perseus chartwatchers
8 months ago
So will you be informing us when you are shorting again, if it gets rejected at the 20EMA?
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chartwatchers PRO Perseus
8 months ago
Yes.
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Trendhopper chartwatchers
8 months ago
The question I have is that the banks always win in the end, they have to,, so the more people looking at this site and following your winning calls, more chance the banks will pull a trick and leave us all pocketless.......so on one hand I welcome your genius input and so far you have been spot on, I am concerned however that it could all end in tears, banks could short out thousands of people looking at this page, they run the show
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chartwatchers PRO Trendhopper
8 months ago
That's why I'M trading heavily at the end or beginning of intermediate declines.
Once the show starts they want their money so we just ride with them.
500.000 users are on this page. That's nothing. THat's why I choosed this not Stockcharts.
And when I notice they are watching me and playing against my post I will immediately launch my webpage.
I will smell out smartmoney subscribers from far. ;)
+2 Reply
SharkbaitAl chartwatchers
8 months ago
Please keep a spot for me as a member on your webpage, lol. You have an awesome plan and are amazing at this! Looking forward to seeing your continued success :)
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Trendhopper chartwatchers
8 months ago
well you certainly have so far...lets hope you are right on this one
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ice_holly01 chartwatchers
8 months ago
Please keep a spot for me as a member on your webpage. Reading your post is my daily job now. Thanks.
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keefer0 chartwatchers
8 months ago
Can you update your Oil outlook at your convenience? I exited longs at 48.75, but was holding ERX still, July calls. Thanks.
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KAYtw chartwatchers
8 months ago
Hit 10 hourly EMA, let's look will it break or go down...
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nexuz
8 months ago
would prefer shorting from 20EMA around 1254/1255 that would be also around .382 Fibo Level of last decline. lets see what happens :)
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val_trader
8 months ago
Do we short from here ? or we wait 1255 ?
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jay_y
8 months ago
Yes. Quick Long retracement to 20 EMA (From Gartley Harmonic).

Longer trend---- SHORT
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Domsn
8 months ago
i think we are back to short now :)
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SharkbaitAl
8 months ago
Patience is a virtue -- thanks for keeping us updated!
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KevinTang
8 months ago
Good actions!!!
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BjornPfaff
8 months ago
Aaaight ;-)
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GoldMan06 PRO
8 months ago
why to hurry look at 4h chart - tg can go up to 1266 ?
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chartwatchers PRO GoldMan06
8 months ago
I don't want to loose my good short position.
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GoldMan06 PRO chartwatchers
8 months ago
so u will long if breaks 1255 ?
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chartwatchers PRO GoldMan06
8 months ago
No. I just closed the longs here at 1255. I'm short again with full position.
We just played the pop from the trendline.
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GoldMan06 PRO chartwatchers
8 months ago
if it goes to 1258.8 u will just watch?
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chartwatchers PRO GoldMan06
8 months ago
No. I finished for today. One good trade is enough. ;)
I'm short from 129+. And now I gave +5$ to the whole position .
GOLD - Chasing the price
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GoldMan06 PRO chartwatchers
8 months ago
According to me daily chart - 1255 at resistance ma34 - if breaks can be bullish, what will u do in that case - considering 4h chart? Thanks
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Renegade7
8 months ago
I'm wondering if Gold seasonally goes down this time of year, especially in June. I remember reading that somewhere.
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chartwatchers PRO Renegade7
8 months ago
Forget the seasonality. That's not going to work now.
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suncitysy PRO
8 months ago
what do you mean by "it was dangerous to loose the position here, I tried to get back asap"?
please advice

thank you
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chartwatchers PRO suncitysy
8 months ago
I'm short from 129+. We came down to the trendline and I knew retail traders will buy gold here.
We bounced and I saw volume is decreasing in the bounce. SO we are running out of buyers. SMartmoney are not buying here only the small guys.
So I closed these longs with 10$ profit and I'm short again.
If I don't close a big seller might arrive and price goes back 1245 in an hour.
If that happens I have to close the longs by loss and I'm short again or I just leave it and I bite the bullet and loosing those short position.
OK?
+1 Reply
suncitysy PRO chartwatchers
8 months ago
ok
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Renegade7
8 months ago
Chartwatcher can you please explain why seasonality won't work now, are things different this time?
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Amirio-dz
8 months ago
My friend what do mean ((DCL)) ?
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chartwatchers PRO Amirio-dz
8 months ago
Daily cycle low
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saint_athur
8 months ago
Its seem they are waiting for G7 result by tomorow. Sideway all day long. Arpi, can you give some direction to us?
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piaspa
8 months ago
Anyone else see something strange happening with the orders (multiple quick reversals followed by red candle). This has been happening for the past hour.
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piaspa piaspa
8 months ago
Also volume is picking up....
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CryptoTraderOne
8 months ago
Volume just tripled at 1H chart with almost no price movements.
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piaspa CryptoTraderOne
8 months ago
Yes this is what I am talking about. Thausands of small transactions and my bar just goes up and down (same size). Is this someone reversing their positions? Trying to understand it...
+1 Reply
chartwatchers PRO piaspa
8 months ago
Volume is starting to go up now. This and the next 2 hourly candle is the one where Europe and USA is open.
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chartwatchers PRO chartwatchers
8 months ago
In this hour USA just premarket but they are trading already
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Marvin
8 months ago
Indeed. Took a while. I just found you here.You place a lot of importance on The EMAs, probably more than anyone I've seen. Possible to comment on this without it taking up too much time? Is this bounce cause for you to add a position? Thanks and all the best.
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chartwatchers PRO Marvin
8 months ago
We are short from 1255$ again.
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Marvin chartwatchers
8 months ago
Ok. Thanks mate.
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mabforex chartwatchers
8 months ago
Hi mate. Are you holding your last position over the weekend?
Tks
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chartwatchers PRO mabforex
8 months ago
Yes I'm holding it.
It looks good for the weekend. We needed some
kind of consolidation after the 2 big red day.
And today we printed a red candle again.
YOu don't have to worry. The bulls should be worried but they are happy with their dip buyings.
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mabforex chartwatchers
8 months ago
Tks for your reply...you are very good...first week following...have a good weekend buddy
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SmilingSword
8 months ago
Nice. Anyway how does 50 ema reversal work?
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chartwatchers PRO SmilingSword
8 months ago
I was waiting for a pullback to the 10 or 20 EMA.
We turned from the 50 EMA. It means to me gold was relatively strong.
We had a lot of retail traders buying down at the trendline.
No smartmoney was buying there
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Domsn chartwatchers
8 months ago
maybe it just was the home sales report from 16:00 and it will rise again
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MiDiGre PRO
8 months ago
Chart, thanks for your tips :-)
I have only one question...what's your SL at the beginning of this trade?
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chartwatchers PRO MiDiGre
8 months ago
You know I dont like stops when intermediate cycles are topping or bottoming
Gold has topped now. I use mental stops.
Between 1290-1300. If we go back there . That is a problem.
+1 Reply
vchelimella
8 months ago
Dear freind will this JDST ever fly ?? its taking for ever
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chartwatchers PRO vchelimella
8 months ago
We have 4-5 weeks.
Just be patient.
Retail traders are buying every dip. We have to run out of these buyers.
Somebody will has to stop out in the panic selling stage.
Enjoy that you not one of them.
:)
+1 Reply
xmrtl chartwatchers
8 months ago
Hi I´m in JDST at 19.10- it should be noted, that the reverse ETF takes the bottoms deeper quickly over time even when JNUG does not make a new high- so the more often the miners bounce back up the worse gets our start position no? Takes deep pockets to average down so I really hope we move next week.
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xmrtl xmrtl
7 months ago
snapshot
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Cheetsbaby84 chartwatchers
7 months ago
How does JDST work exactly? Please forgive my ignorance. And I follow you everyday chart watchers. Thank you so much!
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EliteMX
8 months ago
fed rate hike and brexit decision ayy, it will be one hell of a June
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ja.piotr.bor
7 months ago
So you don't predicicted, what happend today... I know that it wasn't predicitable at all, but now the 1120-1180 price point doesn't make sense at all. No rate hike in this year almost... So we can go f* yourself with price near shorting level started hehe.
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chartwatchers PRO ja.piotr.bor
7 months ago
It's an old post. We are long in gold right now. Check the newest post.
And yes we WILL BREAK 1200 in 2-3 weeks.
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chartwatchers PRO chartwatchers
7 months ago
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/WQlLuBTb-GOLD-NFP-speculations/#tc369421
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ja.piotr.bor chartwatchers
7 months ago
Sorry, yeah I didn't check it properly. But what you predicted today... Wow...
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