It seems like the precious metal is preparing for its next move, by calming down before the storm. The initial support & resistance are getting close to each other: the rising trendline from Wednesday’s lo is currently running extremely close to Friday’s lo 1786.20, making it our initial support, while the falling trend line from September 3rd daily high is currently running around 1793.10, giving us initial resistance.
Although there are weakness signs, it is preferred to wait for a confirmation in the form of trading below 1786.20, and not to jump aboard the bears’ ship before that. If the price starts moving below this support, expect a dive that could target one or more of the short-term retracement levels. Among this group, we have notable levels at 1775.30, 1757.10, 1739.0 & 1724.20, all of them are very important in assessing the strength of weakness, and could give us invaluable clues about the direction of the next move.
On the other hand, if the price starts trading above 1793.10, then we should not hold on to our weakness expectations. In this case, trading above the 1800 landmark would be expected. Above this barrier, we also have key retracement levels at 1807.70, 1813.90, 1819.0 & 1826.50. Topping very close to any of these levels should be viewed as a weakness sign, while breaking above each should be viewed as a display of power by the bulls.
Support:
• 1786.20: Friday’s lo, which is also very close to the rising trendline from Wednesday’s lo.
• 1775.30: Fibonacci 38.2% for the recovery from the crash lo of August 8th 1680.23 to September 3rd 8-week hi 1834.01.
• 1757.1: Fibonacci 50% for the recovery from the crash lo of August 8th 1680.23 to September 3rd 8-week hi 1834.01.
• 1739.0: Fibonacci 61.8% for the recovery from the crash lo of August 8th 1680.23 to September 3rd 8-week hi 1834.01.
• 1724.20: Marji 71.4% for the recovery from the crash lo of August 8th 1680.23 to September 3rd 8-week hi 1834.01.
Resistance:
• 1793.10: The falling trend line from Friday’s daily hi.
• 1807.70: Fibonacci 50% for the falling move from September 3rd hi 1834.01 to September 8th lo 1781.40.
• 1813.90: Fibonacci 61.8% for the falling move from September 3rd hi 1834.01 to September 8th lo 1781.40.
• 1819.0: Marji 71.4% for the falling move from September 3rd hi 1834.01 to September 8th lo 1781.40.
• 1826.50: Marji 85.7% for the falling move from September 3rd hi 1834.01 to September 8th lo 1781.40.
Trend:
• Short-term: Neutral, as long as between 1786.20 & 1793.10.
• Medium-term: Down, as long as we are trading below 1819.0.
• Long-term: Down, as long as we are trading below 1849.50.
Good Trading & Good Luck!
Munther T. Marji CMT
Although there are weakness signs, it is preferred to wait for a confirmation in the form of trading below 1786.20, and not to jump aboard the bears’ ship before that. If the price starts moving below this support, expect a dive that could target one or more of the short-term retracement levels. Among this group, we have notable levels at 1775.30, 1757.10, 1739.0 & 1724.20, all of them are very important in assessing the strength of weakness, and could give us invaluable clues about the direction of the next move.
On the other hand, if the price starts trading above 1793.10, then we should not hold on to our weakness expectations. In this case, trading above the 1800 landmark would be expected. Above this barrier, we also have key retracement levels at 1807.70, 1813.90, 1819.0 & 1826.50. Topping very close to any of these levels should be viewed as a weakness sign, while breaking above each should be viewed as a display of power by the bulls.
Support:
• 1786.20: Friday’s lo, which is also very close to the rising trendline from Wednesday’s lo.
• 1775.30: Fibonacci 38.2% for the recovery from the crash lo of August 8th 1680.23 to September 3rd 8-week hi 1834.01.
• 1757.1: Fibonacci 50% for the recovery from the crash lo of August 8th 1680.23 to September 3rd 8-week hi 1834.01.
• 1739.0: Fibonacci 61.8% for the recovery from the crash lo of August 8th 1680.23 to September 3rd 8-week hi 1834.01.
• 1724.20: Marji 71.4% for the recovery from the crash lo of August 8th 1680.23 to September 3rd 8-week hi 1834.01.
Resistance:
• 1793.10: The falling trend line from Friday’s daily hi.
• 1807.70: Fibonacci 50% for the falling move from September 3rd hi 1834.01 to September 8th lo 1781.40.
• 1813.90: Fibonacci 61.8% for the falling move from September 3rd hi 1834.01 to September 8th lo 1781.40.
• 1819.0: Marji 71.4% for the falling move from September 3rd hi 1834.01 to September 8th lo 1781.40.
• 1826.50: Marji 85.7% for the falling move from September 3rd hi 1834.01 to September 8th lo 1781.40.
Trend:
• Short-term: Neutral, as long as between 1786.20 & 1793.10.
• Medium-term: Down, as long as we are trading below 1819.0.
• Long-term: Down, as long as we are trading below 1849.50.
Good Trading & Good Luck!
Munther T. Marji CMT