Gold - Test of the bull market

FX:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
6779 80 83
We've arrived to the first important test of the new bull market.
The most important thing that we are still in the second intermediate cycle of this bull market. I know most of the bears think - especially the one who bjorned to be wild - this is the beginning of the end (of gold             ). But actually this only will be the end of the beginning. The decline we had in the last few weeks is shallow and slow. Miners and silver             had a scary decline during the last few weeks but gold             was only in a sideways consolidation. Despite the central banks' never ending interventions - dollar is near to yearly highs again gold             had 40$ decline only. We could be at 1230$ just as in 02.11.2016 when the dollar was at the same level as on Friday... But we couldn't even break below the 20 EMA ...

On Friday we finished the week on the 20 EMA . The weekly close was also at the new bull market's weekly trendline . No breakdown : just a close on the trendline .
At the last bull market price broke below the 20 EMA and tagged the 30 EMA at the ICLs (blue arrows) .
Also the 4 week RSI was tagging the oversold levels.

On Friday the 4 day RSI tagged the oversold levels. We might or might not break the 20 EMA and tag the 30 EMA during the next volatile week. But the downside is limited now. Even the FED has a surprise for us next Wednesday gold             will not break below the 1270-80$ level.

And when gold             finished this intervention fueled decline it will rally 50-60$/week to 1550$.
Comment: As today is holiday in Japan, Draghi stayed alone with is intervention program on the planet. And gold is in a rally mode... Only Japan is out of the game. Thursday holiday in Japan again. So I think they've done the whole this week's intervention on Friday. And gold was only able to test the bottom of the consolidation.
I just say again without these interventions gold would have gone nowhere down...
With a 12% of a rate hike chance without the intervening Japan it will be hard to press gold below 1300$..
Comment: Today we had a swing on daily chart.
Comment: Tonight (EST) today early morning (GMT) we had a powerful intervention by BOJ at the announcement. Japan is really getting very busy with weakening the Yen....
But the intervention faded away quickly. And gold's breakdown was very fast it recovered in an hour.
Comment: Here is my favorite "who is intervening today" picture.
Japan is off to go a holiday and their intervention was not enough.
ECB stayed alone. If the FED has a dovish day with no rate hike Draghi will sweat blood to keep the Eur weak today... I think he will fail.
Comment: Gold might be pricing the weakening dollar scenario.
Comment: 5 days of decline ereased in half day.
Comment: I hope Bjorn had a stop.
Comment: Check out this...
Holiday in Japan no intervention. I was so sure this is going to happen.
They are not intervening the yen ( blue candles)
Comment: Yellen: "signals closer to hike"
At the beginning of this year they wanted 4 hikes.
Now they can do only 2. But let's say the truth they wont hike at the US elections.
So "There can be only one...."
I just wonder when the dollar longs will realize that something is wrong???!!!
Comment: Intervention failed. The dollar finally doing its job: it's falling.
Thanks Arpi. where will you be taking profits?
Hi great Apri I also hanged in there! my nugt and jnug were killing me and made as if they did not exsist..but my bottom line freaked me.
You need to believe in this bull to persevere with good guidance and info
+1 Reply
Miners could gap up tomorrow. Selling half my position in LABU (with one hell of a profit thank you very much) and adding to JNUG just before the closing bell :)

Where's that one guy that was telling me to 'respect the Market kid'..? Lol! I miss him already.
+1 Reply
bertcoin Nightstar
Ha! That's exactly what I did. Shaved some awesome LABU profit today to pay for some of this (get rid of NUGT margin) and DGAZ.
+1 Reply
ARPI Knows his stuff
+1 Reply
Back in the green on NUGT on a 19% move today. Last Friday was well past my mental stop loss "believing" in the bull market. Glad I listened to you Arpi and hung with it. Three other cyclical/technicians that have earned my respect were all short targeting below the 1302 DCL down to 1230. None of them go as broad as you to use data on the currency wars and politics to influence the cycles. I think that gives you a big advantage. Thanks!!!
+3 Reply
Bearbud bertcoin
Hey BC, I still have $100 to go on NUGT what do you think the TP is on Gold and NUGT?
"And when gold finished this intervention fueled decline it will rally 50-60$/week to 1550." - Arpi. I might take some profits before then, as we're on day 14 of the 3rd daily cycle. IMHO if it breaks through the previous high and down trend line around 1350, there's nothing stopping it from a big right translated cycle with a mild DCL. If Arpi has the DXY pegged right, then boom! So I'll be watching carefully at 1350.
Thats right. I think we will print a higher high at least. But how far this rally will go we cant tell right now.
Maybe only 1380-90. Maybe 1450. Maybe 1500...
If we have 3 more days like today then it can be 1500 easily in 2 weeks.
I say again : dollar is the key. if it breaks the trendline the dollar bulls will be toasted and everything is going up:
oil, stocks, gold.
I think thats a perfect scenario before the US elections.
+1 Reply
AhmedKhattab chartwatchers
If it reaches 1380-90 we should sell or keep our gold until watching the US elections.

and then it will drop to which pont??
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