The most important thing that we are still in the second intermediate cycle of this market. I know most of the bears think - especially the one who bjorned to be wild - this is the beginning of the end (of gold ). But actually this only will be the end of the beginning. The decline we had in the last few weeks is shallow and slow. Miners and silver had a scary decline during the last few weeks but gold was only in a sideways consolidation. Despite the central banks' never ending interventions - dollar is near to yearly highs again gold had 40$ decline only. We could be at 1230$ just as in 02.11.2016 when the dollar was at the same level as on Friday... But we couldn't even break below the 20 ...
On Friday we finished the week on the 20 . The weekly close was also at the new market's weekly . No breakdown : just a close on the .
At the last market price broke below the 20 and tagged the 30 at the ICLs (blue arrows) .
Also the 4 week was tagging the oversold levels.
On Friday the 4 day tagged the oversold levels. We might or might not break the 20 and tag the 30 during the next volatile week. But the downside is limited now. Even the FED has a surprise for us next Wednesday gold will not break below the 1270-80$ level.
And when gold finished this intervention fueled decline it will rally 50-60$/week to 1550$.
I just say again without these interventions gold would have gone nowhere down...
With a 12% of a rate hike chance without the intervening Japan it will be hard to press gold below 1300$..
But the intervention faded away quickly. And gold's breakdown was very fast it recovered in an hour.
Japan is off to go a holiday and their intervention was not enough.
ECB stayed alone. If the FED has a dovish day with no rate hike Draghi will sweat blood to keep the Eur weak today... I think he will fail.
Holiday in Japan no intervention. I was so sure this is going to happen.
They are not intervening the yen ( blue candles)
At the beginning of this year they wanted 4 hikes.
Now they can do only 2. But let's say the truth they wont hike at the US elections.
So "There can be only one...."
I just wonder when the dollar longs will realize that something is wrong???!!!
Maybe only 1380-90. Maybe 1450. Maybe 1500...
If we have 3 more days like today then it can be 1500 easily in 2 weeks.
I say again : dollar is the key. if it breaks the trendline the dollar bulls will be toasted and everything is going up:
oil, stocks, gold.
I think thats a perfect scenario before the US elections.