chartwatchers
Long

Gold - Test of the bull market

FX:XAUUSD   Gold / U.S. Dollar
6762 80 80
We've arrived to the first important test of the new bull market.
The most important thing that we are still in the second intermediate cycle of this bull market. I know most of the bears think - especially the one who bjorned to be wild - this is the beginning of the end (of gold             ). But actually this only will be the end of the beginning. The decline we had in the last few weeks is shallow and slow. Miners and silver             had a scary decline during the last few weeks but gold             was only in a sideways consolidation. Despite the central banks' never ending interventions - dollar is near to yearly highs again gold             had 40$ decline only. We could be at 1230$ just as in 02.11.2016 when the dollar was at the same level as on Friday... But we couldn't even break below the 20 EMA ...

On Friday we finished the week on the 20 EMA . The weekly close was also at the new bull market's weekly trendline . No breakdown : just a close on the trendline .
At the last bull market price broke below the 20 EMA and tagged the 30 EMA at the ICLs (blue arrows) .
Also the 4 week RSI was tagging the oversold levels.

On Friday the 4 day RSI tagged the oversold levels. We might or might not break the 20 EMA and tag the 30 EMA during the next volatile week. But the downside is limited now. Even the FED has a surprise for us next Wednesday gold             will not break below the 1270-80$ level.

And when gold             finished this intervention fueled decline it will rally 50-60$/week to 1550$.
Comment: As today is holiday in Japan, Draghi stayed alone with is intervention program on the planet. And gold is in a rally mode... Only Japan is out of the game. Thursday holiday in Japan again. So I think they've done the whole this week's intervention on Friday. And gold was only able to test the bottom of the consolidation.
I just say again without these interventions gold would have gone nowhere down...
With a 12% of a rate hike chance without the intervening Japan it will be hard to press gold below 1300$..
snapshot
Comment: Today we had a swing on daily chart.
snapshot
Comment: Tonight (EST) today early morning (GMT) we had a powerful intervention by BOJ at the announcement. Japan is really getting very busy with weakening the Yen....
But the intervention faded away quickly. And gold's breakdown was very fast it recovered in an hour.
Comment: Here is my favorite "who is intervening today" picture.
Japan is off to go a holiday and their intervention was not enough.
ECB stayed alone. If the FED has a dovish day with no rate hike Draghi will sweat blood to keep the Eur weak today... I think he will fail.
snapshot
Comment: Gold might be pricing the weakening dollar scenario.
snapshot
Comment: 5 days of decline ereased in half day.
snapshot
Comment: I hope Bjorn had a stop.
Comment: Check out this...
Holiday in Japan no intervention. I was so sure this is going to happen.
They are not intervening the yen ( blue candles)
snapshot
Comment: Yellen: "signals closer to hike"
LOL
At the beginning of this year they wanted 4 hikes.
Now they can do only 2. But let's say the truth they wont hike at the US elections.
So "There can be only one...."
I just wonder when the dollar longs will realize that something is wrong???!!!
Comment: Intervention failed. The dollar finally doing its job: it's falling.
snapshot
Hello, Arpi!
Don't Forget about our Chamapgne in Studio 69. KEEP The word!! :D
I am ready for this week!
I hope HFTM gives me long before FOMC...
I made some educational idea as well... hope it helps my Followers..
GOLD / Mistake / Timing is the key!


Studio 69.. Riga! When Gold is at 1400!
Cheers!
+4 Reply
olegleo MetalCruisers
When? :) I'll book a ticket. :)
+1 Reply
When Gold is at 1400, Arpi said he come over and celebrate with me, some champagne and stuff at Studio 69 ( most expensive place in Riga.)
Reply
Arpi, I would suggest my post about being prepared to unexpected can be associated with your today's analysis even better than to your previous Gold-related topic, where I originally linked it to.

What is the gold bugs are wrong in their expectations?
+3 Reply
albertwt VirtualFax
VirtualFax, So the next movement will be bullish after the FOMC meeting this week ?
Reply
Ronnee albertwt
Nothing wrong with giving an a posing view, especially backed up with a chart of the same period, which could end up true.. Not to say in the short term it can't go bullish...it's still has a lot to do with what the fed might or might not do over the short term anyway,I feel, then this election, trump wins its definitely going a way up..personally I'm waiting until 21st 1 for the fed 2 for the BOJ...if I miss some ok but I cannot afford large SL to get caught because it always whip saws before the direction is defined solid..cheers..all ideas/thoughts are great. Ron
+3 Reply
albertwt Ronnee
Cool, that does make sense man.
Reply
You couldn't have said better
Reply
VirtualFax albertwt
Simplistic answer to your question is - I don't know. However,... based on my own analysis (and I want to stress out "my own" because I would never make again the mistake, that I did in the past, trading off someone else's analysis or signal) I would say that there is rather a better chance than not, that after the FOMC the movement would be bullish indeed. At the same time, as I mentioned before and still continue to believe, the uptrend line will likely be tagged or even penetrated to a certain "safe" degree for a short period of time before the actual move begins.

The purpose of my post was to make people aware that the bullish movement is not a given and, as such, to encourage people to think about a retreat plan upfront so that decisions are not made in rush and panic. I also tried to demonstrate that such worst case scenario is not a baseless speculation but could rather have a technical basis in certain unfortunate circumstances.

To relate it to the sentence which Arpi started his post with, we approached the point which could set up Gold price pattern for the next 5 to 10 years. But even if Gold bounces off $1,300 range on Wed, there is no guarantee that we are in the bull run. This is only the first test out of three. The second would be penetrating the bearish trendline around $1,350 area. And the third is moving from that level far away so that Gold can't be shorted back into the falling wedge again. In this last case reaching the bullish target of $1,430 alone is not sufficient as it's not yet far away from the bearish trendline. The trendline could still be penetrated back upon the backtest. However, price either surpassing the $1,500 level or successfully passing the backtest, could finally make this bull run official.
+1 Reply
albertwt VirtualFax
Ah I see, now I understand fully about reading the chart.
Many thanks VirtualFax for the sharing and explanation. All the best for the trading this week :-)
Reply
pmcllc PRO VirtualFax
that is what I was seeing too. Maybe a sharp scary correction down before slinging up...
Reply
Thank you for sharing the idea to "long" this week :-)
Reply
Arpi, we're not tagged DCL yet. I worry about that.
Reply
".. who Bjorned to be wild" -- Ha! I see what you did there Arpi :) Here's the thing fellow traders.. When all else fails, focus on the big picture. We are clearly in a bull Market - anyone disputing that is either in denial or blind - and if you look at Gold on a weekly chart you'll notice that Gold is not only stair stepping up but also flagging just above the 200 WMA. We should have one more leg up before the end of this intermediate cycle.

snapshot
+1 Reply
Nightstar Nightstar
Ps: Oops! Not sure why the numbers on the right side of my chart are off but you get the point.
Reply
I didn't notice that... What I know the big banks and funds are the big fan of 200 WMA and 200 DMA...
+3 Reply
VirtualFax Nightstar
I agree with your point and I'm not calling to short Gold. The flag formation is a no brainer and it, in theory, should shoot Gold up to the $1,450 area. My thinking, however, is that there are still three critical points to pass to start calling it a bull rally. And even hitting the $1,450 is not a guarantee yet unless Gold continues running higher from there in order to free up from the gravity of the potential falling wedge.

Long story short, while longs (including myself) are hoping for the best, they should also have a backup plan should the worst hits. After a potential set up is spotted on a chart, the next step is always calculating your maximum potential loss in case things unfold in an unfavourable fashion. Estimating gain in only the third phase this process.
Reply
Nightstar VirtualFax
I appreciate where you're coming from VirtualFax but the Gold Bull has already been confirmed time and time again. In fact, Gold bottomed back in December and started a new multi year cycle with the rest of the commodity complex this year.

And I wholeheartedly agree that trading is all about evaluating risk versus reward in order to increase the probability of a good trade and that's why cycle analysis works well in conjunction with Technical analysis and Sentiment. I keep saying this and I can't say it enough. Just ask our host...
+1 Reply
VirtualFax Nightstar
Thanks and your response yet again makes it clear to me that I need to upgrade my cycle and sentiment analysis skills. I just have to think about the most efficient way of doing it...

I will be more than happy to see Gold rallying as I have a bunch of capital still being stuck dead in the freaking metal since the downtrend.
Reply
After two and a half months consolidation I agree with Arpi 100% !!
We´re going higher very soon.. maybe one final shakeout this week towards/below $1,300 but this does not have to come... Friday $1,306 could've been the low already.. gold is in a bull run and monthly stochastic is embedded... BUY THE DIP..
+1 Reply
Thanks Arpi, your fundamental annotations are appreciated!
Reply
It would be too easy, we will have to go through one last nerves test before FED. But first up (my guess arround ressitence round 1330) then strong slide below 1305 to take SL and then we are ready for continuation of bull market.
+1 Reply
rzvfx kizly
maybe to 1290 area.
Reply
kizly rzvfx
Also very possible. I will go without SL, better to say went on Friday without SL.
Reply
Be carefull.
Reply
I look carefully for you, but for the moment I prefer platinum .
+1 Reply
ok14 ok14
the Oil brent options and the Canadian dollar against the US dollar.
Reply
... so clever ;) thanks Arrrrpiiiii .... :o)
Reply
Unrelated to Gold but LABU is killing it this morning..! A perfect example of why portfolio diversification is über important :)
+1 Reply
Nightstar Nightstar
I'm posting this chart to illustrate once again (I'm preaching I know) how important it is to not only trade in the direction of the trend but to exercise a little patience. I bought LABU at $40 while Biotech was in the process of forming a flag, experienced a draw down but waited patiently for the trend to resume. Today, it's paying off. Gold will do the same!

snapshot
+2 Reply
Yes. I bought at $4 and am still holding it. Thanks.
Reply
ice_holly01 PRO ice_holly01
$41
Reply
ArtFly Nightstar
Nightstar, What is your TP in LABU?
Reply
You can use a 'Trailing Stop Loss' if you want the no-brainer approach but I'm gonna be looking at XBI fist and foremost and Weekly Stochastics.. I'm also gonna be keeping an eye on the S&P/QQQ but will re-evaluate if the Market misbehaves. It's very tempting to take money off the table right now, not gonna lie :)

snapshot
Reply
GoldB777 Nightstar
agreed, I bought back in at $45.78 and sold at $50..I didn't expect such a pop..
Reply
Nightstar GoldB777
Make sure to keep some skin in the game for any unexpected upside surprise. People tend to sell to soon.. and we have a ways to go before bumping into resistance.
Reply
I have all my chips on the table. It's like waiting for the Great Pumpkin to show up.
Reply
Caution ... Caution!

1. in monthly chart red cloud is still dominant, and as long this remains, it is not quite correct to say that gold already in the bull market is ... until the cloud changes to green here can only be talked about a correction of the correction since 2011 will.

2. for this year needs gold a new year high at about 1466 but before that I still expect 1255 (October ?!), then up (until December 25), and after that high follows a year low for the next year (2017), which should reach at least 1125 ...

3. in 2017 (2018?) higher Levels are expected... 1589 until 1634-1676

4. Since 2011, I see only one ABC correction that have not yet completed, which would - in big picture - present a wave 4
 
The low 2015 = A
 
1634-1676 = B (in 2017-2018)

Potentially A = C

CONCLUSION: C fall to minimum 950/54

This whole story until the wave 4 is completed, can extend over the next 5-8 years...

only with the start of the wave 5 you can talk about a bull market, but till then we will all be about 10 years older ...

(please ignore grammatical errors)
Reply
Parabolica UNLIMITED
We are in the very middle of wave 3 which will likely reach 2200+ points.
Reply
UNLIMITED Parabolica
yes... in 20 years...
Reply
Today daily swing is interesting.
If 1316 17 broken, we can see rally to 1330 on daily swing...
With that in mind, I see where the Building Permits takes us today before it even comes out, so I can act fast enough and open buy just in case.
GOLD / 500oz swing / High Frequency /Building Permits Direction
Reply
Double-top on hourly which would either take us down to the trendline train station today or, more likely, would form a triple-top and do the same tomorrow.

snapshot
Reply
Arpi, as usual, excellent market analysis for gold. For now fatigue , but after Wednesday we should see a clear picture. Thank very much
Could you comment on what you think about Labu now and your TP level ?
Reply
Would you update oil ? DCL ended?
Reply
BUY BUY BUY !
+2 Reply
albertwt Childrenofmen
This week or next week ?
Reply
this week
+2 Reply
albertwt Childrenofmen
Yes, that's why I'm preparing since yesterday :-)
thanks man, all the best for the investing journey ahead.
Reply
VirtualFax Childrenofmen
Be careful. Not necessarily but might be a pump before dump.
Reply
Thank you! It's very comfortable for me to see a lot of bearish view.
+1 Reply
VirtualFax Victor.Y.F
Victor, I don't think people who seriously follow Gold have a bearish view. But caution should be exercised because, not necessarily, but there might be another trip to the recent days low before the rally begins. So people buying now based on the current action either might want to have tight stop and be prepared to repurchase or have the gut to ride the price down before going back up.
Reply
Today is perfect example of why you should prepare your position upfront. The big move has started and it will break up this big consolidation and will run up until election day with huge gain. I think it can be up to another $300 added. I expect next big correction sometime between election day and December. Fed definitely will use that FOMC to suppress price of Gold one more time.
+3 Reply
we have a very tricky situation brewing here, I'm not 100% sure gold is going up after the Fed meets, more inclined to say it will drop hard.
Reply
VirtualFax traderzaius
Based on the price action so far tend to agree with you. Only time will tell. The question of the day is - what is the definition of "hard" and what is the target for that potential drop.
Reply
Bjorn doesn't need a stop Arpi.. He's Superman :)
+5 Reply
lol
Reply
So do I, mate, so do I)))
Reply
BJOORRRNNN!
Don't get squeeeezzzeeedd! LOL
Reply
Well it was fun to watch the XAUUSD and S&P500 candlesticks dance up and down on the 15 minute setting at 30 seconds to go. That was worth the PRO subscription right there. But I am just shocked that CNBC actually had a guy on there that was absolutely sure that the fed would raise rates. Is there ANYBODY that really saw a hike coming? Really? Anyone?
Reply
Bearbud bertcoin
NO WAY not before the election!
Reply
VirtualFax bertcoin
You should know it, c'mon - that's what CNBC is for. To confuse people. Same goes for this clown Cramer. A week ago he rated IAG as a Sell, just before it was getting prepared to fly (so that he and his buddies could pick it up cheap, I guess):

goo.gl/uxPViH

But that also indicates that you can make money off the idiot by trading in the direction opposite to his advise

+1 Reply
lbg01 PRO bertcoin
Hey Bert, I´ve learned that since we closely follow this, we know....
Having said that, everybody else just listens to the last pundit...
cheers!
+1 Reply
lol... you're bad... ha ha
+1 Reply
Some big volume today, looks like sentiment is up
+1 Reply
Hi Arpi,

Are you saying that Gold will come back to under 1310 range before move up side?
Reply
No. first we will break to new highs. Then will come the decline below 1310
Reply
exactly... so laughable.... just ridiculous... thanks Mr. Arpi badassGoldTrader
+1 Reply
lbg01 PRO webmiztriz
BadAssGoldTrader... sounds nice!!!
+1 Reply
Back in the green on NUGT on a 19% move today. Last Friday was well past my mental stop loss "believing" in the bull market. Glad I listened to you Arpi and hung with it. Three other cyclical/technicians that have earned my respect were all short targeting below the 1302 DCL down to 1230. None of them go as broad as you to use data on the currency wars and politics to influence the cycles. I think that gives you a big advantage. Thanks!!!
+3 Reply
Bearbud bertcoin
Hey BC, I still have $100 to go on NUGT what do you think the TP is on Gold and NUGT?
Reply
"And when gold finished this intervention fueled decline it will rally 50-60$/week to 1550." - Arpi. I might take some profits before then, as we're on day 14 of the 3rd daily cycle. IMHO if it breaks through the previous high and down trend line around 1350, there's nothing stopping it from a big right translated cycle with a mild DCL. If Arpi has the DXY pegged right, then boom! So I'll be watching carefully at 1350.
Reply
Thats right. I think we will print a higher high at least. But how far this rally will go we cant tell right now.
Maybe only 1380-90. Maybe 1450. Maybe 1500...
If we have 3 more days like today then it can be 1500 easily in 2 weeks.
I say again : dollar is the key. if it breaks the trendline the dollar bulls will be toasted and everything is going up:
oil, stocks, gold.
I think thats a perfect scenario before the US elections.
+1 Reply
AhmedKhattab chartwatchers
If it reaches 1380-90 we should sell or keep our gold until watching the US elections.

and then it will drop to which pont??
Reply
chartwatchers PRO AhmedKhattab
YOu cannot put just a take profit in gold right now. We decide when we sell when we get there. We have to see how strong is this rally.
Reply
ARPI Knows his stuff
+1 Reply
Miners could gap up tomorrow. Selling half my position in LABU (with one hell of a profit thank you very much) and adding to JNUG just before the closing bell :)

Where's that one guy that was telling me to 'respect the Market kid'..? Lol! I miss him already.
+1 Reply
bertcoin PRO Nightstar
Ha! That's exactly what I did. Shaved some awesome LABU profit today to pay for some of this (get rid of NUGT margin) and DGAZ.
+1 Reply
Hi great Apri I also hanged in there! my nugt and jnug were killing me and made as if they did not exsist..but my bottom line freaked me.
You need to believe in this bull to persevere with good guidance and info
+1 Reply
Thanks Arpi. where will you be taking profits?
Reply
Ideas Scripts Chart
United States
United Kingdom
India
España
France
Italia
Polska
Brasil
Россия
Türkiye
日本
한국
Home Stock Screener Forex Signal Finder Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features House Rules Moderators For the WEB Widgets Stock Charting Library Priority Support Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Help & Wiki Twitter
Private Messages Chat Ideas Published Followers Following Priority Support Public Profile Profile Settings Account and Billing Sign Out