Ahmedshebe

GOLD ANALYTICS

Ahmedshebe Updated   
OANDA:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
Hi team,
Hope you all had a wonderful weekend and welcome back to today's analysis.

Today is a scalping day, we play around with support and resistance before we get that break up long to at least $2038 which will only be confirmed after we break $2021 we might even see gold extending further up but for now we should all go for $2038-40, after we reach this level i'm expecting some resistance and we might possibly have a short fall which will be targeting $2004 although we might as well see a little extension to at least $1999.

So generally speaking scalping seems as the best profits generation for today as of now, as the momentum will be increasing we should also be mindful of price patterns and candle pressure. I reckon that pump up will possibly extend so let's all be watchful and keen with the market. For those who will be going for scalping like me, i guess you just need enough time on your trading platforms, for those who will be looking for those major breakouts then it might take time before we see one and we never know how the market might change it's movement and go our direction but using a different channel, pattern.

I have reasons to believe that the market might move in a weird formation, a formation that non of us know about , because we are so used of identifying the patterns and candle pressure, anyways let's see what happens and just in case it does do so then i think we might have to stay away from the market for sometime and until the market settles then that's when we enter the market.

That's all for today, until then do wish you all a wonderful trading week ahead.
Comment:
Hello Guys,'

Still sticking with my previous idea, nothing much has happened and i'm still looking for the pump!

Up until then do wish you all a wonderful trading day!
Trade active:
We are active , headed for my first Tp , $2057 -60 also looks like a genuine target but let's first take down the first TAKE PROFIT @ $2038-40 having a few entries running big lot's.
Comment:
Hello All and Good Morning, As i had indicated since the start of this week we were to take down $2038 as our first Take Profits Zone and we did exactly hit $2038 and now we are experiencing the fall, although the market movement was very promising yesterday.

I thought maybe we will extend further before we proceed to $2057-59 but we didn't and trust me we will hit it soon enough, for now i expect the fall to at least $2021 or it extends a little further but after the fall we going to see that pump hoping that volatility would have increased by then.

So basically here is the summary for the market , we should see a short fall to $2021 then after the fall i expect a rise to at least $2048 first before we take down $2056 and possibly try the wick we saw on 3rd may 2023 at exactly 9.00 which will be extending further up.

The waving seems untouchable, the candle pressure as of now seems low, no major patterns seen, so whatever the case please stay cautious that's per my analysis today but as i had indicated sometimes last week, the market is creating a new trading channel that we are all unaware of, so let's be on the look out as we trade the bias.

Up until then do wish you all a wonderful trading day.
Comment:
I have a feeling we might have a very big fall to at least $1975, this comes after seeing a major pattern which i just happened to have missed out earlier in the gold market, although i will be analyzing the market further later, but guy's let's be extra careful now, we look for the declines mainly buy declines and this is where we can go for the major waterfall.

The sideways market has resisted for sometime now, which makes me want to analyze the market even further and deeper, so with all being said let's be careful and will be back later with updates.
Trade active:
Running profits big , a few considerable entries, lot sizing very considerate, these are actually blind entries, don't risk if your equity is low, for those who wish to go for the shorts and believe your equities are strong enough let's get the blind entries (entries before confirmation) with considerable lot sizing.
Comment:
Once we break $2023 then the fall will be active... for those running shorts like me please look at $2023 keenly, if we break the level then we are going for the waterfall. i expect a retest of $2032..
Comment:
The retest to $2032 has been seen and it was exactly per my analysis, let's now see how the fall goes now. if we break $2027 first and then go ahead and break $2024 and a further fall to $2017 then we going for our 1st Take profit zone at $2007 and possibly see $1999 before we confirm the next move.

until then will be back with further analysis.
Comment:
We saw the retest to $2032 and then saw a pump which never expected which changed the whole plan, so if the current bearish candle closes below the previous candle then we going to see the fall, if it persists then the next candle should be able to give us direction.

Meanwhile those who went for the shorts, be cautious we are generally trading on a major downtrend whereby we see some minor pumps.

We've actually broken the trend line this weakens the idea of a fall further and gives us the urge to analyze further
Comment:
I'm still looking at my fall, targets are the same as indicated earlier during the morning updates, however please trade considerably don't be rational, for those who are still trading be cautious.

That's all for today until tomorrow good bye!
Comment:
Hello all and welcome back to today's analysis.
So far we haven't seen any major breakouts i was expecting the fall to go further down as indicated earlier but there was a decline.

The declines made me look into the market much deeper and came to realize that we've actually been trading in the consolidation market, not many would see that but we are indeed.

So after analyzing further came to a the below consideration.
1. We should have a minor fall to at least $2021 first , this might happen during the day.(this is a retest)
2.We will then have a minor pump to test the previous higher high at $2048 might extend further and then afterwards we could see the fall we've all be talking of.

The fall is certain even if it won't happen in this week but it's certainly there so for the bulls kindly trade reasonably as we wait for the market to unfold further.

That's all for now see you then with some more updates on the gold market.
Comment:
As indicated earlier i was expecting that fall to $2021 and it did reach, now i believe the fall will extend further down, so for those who had their entries running hold them until further updates.
Comment:
The candle pressure seems to be increasing, so let's hold guys we going down big time unless something happens in between, but as of now hold ........
Comment:
Once we break $2028 with a bullish candle then cancel your entries collect the small amounts. if it doesn't break then continue holding.
Comment:
Whatever is happening is exactly per my analysis earlier in the morning updates, was expecting the fall and then a rise for retest of $2048, the selling pressure had increased and made me think we going further down but it was a decline.

Meanwhile we going for the retest at $2048 and after that pump we up will post an update on what we should expect next.
Comment:
I see the possibility of recovering the long wick of 3rd at 9.00 , we could see the pump before we see that major fall, so guys let's be on the look out and consider the higher high to actually recover that wick mainly looking at $2061 and then i hope to see the waterfall.
Comment:
Seems as if i'm missing something , i'll get back to you all shortly.
Comment:
Good Morning,

Hope yesterday was profitable enough, i missed something about the pump , i was expecting it to try fill the wick which was created on 3rd , the long wick which most of the people had considered it as the the higher high which was to end up at least at $2059 and sadly we couldn't even reach $2050 but generally speaking we did see the pump end up at $2042.

Today after considering what had happened yesterday, i have concluded us being fully bearish, hoping today we might fall back to $1991. for this fall to be active we have two major areas of concern that is $2006 and $2000 once these levels are broken then seeing $1991 and even further to $1979 will be very much clear and valid.

So the idea of us trading on the falling market is still on, the trend seems all good and back to it's original state, although the we are still trading within the trend, that is there are no major breakouts to prove the downtrend, but the formation is very much visible.

Most of the people were actually anticipating for a rise some even went further to conclude that we were going up big time, but that was not the case, because the market was all choppy and had mixed reactions, this didn't make me right and others wrong, the market did give us those direction so it was up to us to conclude per our analysis.

So let's see how it's going to unfold today , as the volatility seems to be increasing in small bits, let's also be on the look out for the major patterns formation.

NOTE : the possibility of retesting that previous TOP (wick) is still viable as of now, so we can't seriously leave it out, but all this is to be confirmed after we see some other important aspects but for now it doesn't seem that strong however if we go up instead and break $2020 then just know that's the first indication that we are going up for the retest.

That's all for now and until then do wish us all a wonderful end week trading.
Comment:
1. The current move could be a correctional one meaning we could correct the market structure and then see a pump to at least $2060, but it depends on how the outgoing structure is formed.

2. We could have the downside straight away without further indications.
reason being , we've seen the first downside move which was shorter than the most previous move which is longer.(indicating two major scenarios of either a direct pump to retest the most previous high then we see our waterfall (could be a scary move) but then the levels it reaches will determine what we should expect next.

So generally speaking we could see that pump towards $2060 the possibilities of breaking the higher top at $2060 are also there, but i highly anticipate for one last pump then we go towards the downside with an unstoppable volatility rate.

So in this sense i'm actually looking at some key levels mainly $2020 to be broken then after it's broken i could have my buy entries and locate my Take profit zone i also have a feeling of setting some pending sell orders from the top, but for now let's see how the market unfolds.

With all being said the recent update seems to be loosing it's value as the market continue unfolding, the possibilities of bears controlling the market are being minimized as we look for the top retest which will there and then confirm if we are to hold for further upward or close and go for the downside.

What you need to do in such market !

I usually advise all to stay focused and be scalping as we wait for the major breakouts and keep in mind that we are still within the consolidating (ranging) market. so yes due to this aspect we end up with double trouble ideas, which may bring in the wrong results.

So let's go for scalping , this is mainly for those who have the time but for those who don't let's wait for those breakouts.

Will be back later with further updates and until then do wish you all a wonderful end trading week.
Comment:
NOTE : We've broken the first trap at $2006 we are now looking at $2000
Trade active:
That's the pump be ready we about to collect some more profits!

I went for that pump blindly as for you wait for $2020..we should retest the previous high!
Comment:
Approaching level $2020 we should expect a retracement before we continue with our pump up.

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