chartwatchers
Long

GOLD - Short term trade idea for the bounce out of the DCL

FX:XAUUSD   Gold / U.S. Dollar
4452 62 56
I must notice the divergence between price and MACD - RSI . On the daily chart we almost tagged the 100 EMA .
My original idea was the bounce from the 100 DEMA at the DCL.
So I will give a chance to the bounce out from the DCL. In this case I suppose that the DCL was today and we will have a bounce up to 1240-50$.
WE are simply too late in this daily cycle, and I have a feeling that the dollar is loosing its strength today.

This trade needs a stop. So if you join put your stops below 1219.50$

The risk is 3.5$.

The plan is unchanged , the daily chart levels are still valid. I just want to take some awful chances.

PS. If you don't agree, don't understand just skip this trade. This is not going to be the trade of the week.
Trade closed: stop reached
Comment: I will reenter again as we printed the lower low and the indicators hasn't changed too much. Same divergence.
So I'm long again with a small position from1221.5$.
Comment: Attacking the 10 EMA
snapshot
Comment: Let me explain again the main plan is unchanged:
we are waiting for gold to enter into the panic selling stage below 1200$.
But we have to print a DCL first and a 4-5 days bounce out of the DCL.
I'm trying to trade this bounce. For those who are holding the shorts it's no problem.
My core position is still short. Just playing this bounce with a small bet.
Comment: Closed above the 10 EMA and attacking the 20 EMA.
snapshot
Should we leave the shorts open?
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Yes. Just set a take profit for the shorts otherwise your platform at the end of the day will think that you wanted to close the shorts wit hthe long opening and by the morning you will have 0 position.
+1 Reply
mabaert PRO chartwatchers
Long got taken out. So I guess down we go
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sir i open long position plz tell me Sl or Tp
+1 Reply
MiDiGre PRO hassan.saeed881994
it's write above in the description...sl 1219.5 tp 1240-50
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Arpi, your pullback above 1240?
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saint_athur saint_athur
Expected*
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sir Sl is hitted
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piaspa hassan.saeed881994
Well it happens the risk you take.
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Stiil down! stop loss in action
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I think it was a good try. I am a bit suprised how fast we are moving down, we will most probably reach the target area by the end of this week, if this continues. I see major support around 1205-1210 area and wonder how fast we will cut through that?
+1 Reply
totally agree with you...it was a good try! ;-)
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piaspa MiDiGre
I am actually still long have my stop at 1214.50. Wonder if this will bounce to 1237... (my tp at the moment) then I am planning to add short positions around 1242. (thats the plan for me).
+1 Reply
Thanks for your tips...
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piaspa MiDiGre
We should thank Arpi he is doing a great job, I just happen to agree with him on this entire move. (after being disillusioned that we will see a bounce at 1260s - he opened up my eyes to what is really happening)

As for this trade remember there is major risk with it, going long in a market that is being shorted is quite difficult.
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Yep man...always many thanks to Arpi
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1209 is the best place to buy.
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SL hitted on long positions, i guess we continue down?
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you mean you are short again right?
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technical shows bullish, but lack of buyers is still an issue, bear week
+2 Reply
Leave DUST alone through this period?
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XTAL.ball AlphaDreams
Same question. Safe to do this with DUST or JDST?
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I left it alone, it would have been a trade earlier but with it down and bouncing I'm not going to touch.
+1 Reply
XTAL.ball AlphaDreams
I'm anxiously awaiting the 'panic selling' phase when DUST and JDST shoot up by +200%...
+1 Reply
The market and all US indexes are about to go nuts. This might be a longer ride into and past elections.
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XTAL.ball AlphaDreams
We'll see. Chartwatchers is predicting a peak for DXY around June 16 (between fed rate hike announcement and Brexit) and then a rapid decline.
+1 Reply
Love your charts and ideas! Question though, what does DCL stand for?
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I think Daily Cicle Low...
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dmz MiDiGre
Thanks. I assume that's the low on the daily chart - is this based on a specific time period?
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I can't answer you, sorry
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daily looks quite goodfor that setup also. if we get a nice hammer candle today that would support the pullback - 1241 would be .38 fibo and around 1249 the .50 retracement. That would also suggest short targets 1192 (-0.382) and 1185 (-0.5)

snapshot
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MoLee nexuz
Nice marubozo too :)
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MoLee MoLee
my bad.. no marubozo, just couldn't see clearly because i didn't enlarge the chart.
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nexuz MoLee
No marubozu but lets wait what daily close will bring and Hi btw :) didnt see you around for a while
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Do you think that a SL at 1217 should be fine?
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nexuz MiDiGre
Im using also 1217 - should be ok in my opinion cause it seems that we bottomed now and we are climbing higher
+1 Reply
MoLee nexuz
i'm using 1217 too which is just below the support that my 633 EMA has generated.
+1 Reply
I think that's ok. We shouldn't come below the lows.
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nnavarrete chartwatchers
Got my profits from JDST positio this morning at 23.50 and I got distracted with work and forgot to read your post from this morning... I got JDST again at 22.99 and forgot to palce stops... I am hoping we will go down again... Please advise
+1 Reply
You mean you hope gold is going down and JDST going up?
+1 Reply
nnavarrete chartwatchers
Yes sir... I was wondering if you still believe we are going below 1200... I am hoping for gold to go down so my JDST goes up again.. Level 2 quotes were showing me a lot of orders at 29 per share (JDST) and that distorted my view so I bought it at 22.99 after selling it this morning at 23.50. I thought it was going to continue doping but gold went up just as your post stated this morning... Your predictions are pretty damn accurate!!
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This is just a 4-5 days bounce to get the bulls back on board.
After the bounce is finished we will be entering into wave 4 and wave 5 .
SO your position will be good. Just survive till next week Thursday or Friday.
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rohithisgood chartwatchers
So the feds talk about rate hike over and over at different meetings to hammer the Gold price down. Its the same news being told over and over and even if they do increase the rate in June, it would be very minimal.
After the 10% drops in most gold stocks yesterday, I bought more as I am confident it will go back up. Worst case scenario is I may have to wait until August but Gold is definitely going up.
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isaac312 PRO chartwatchers
Master, would you like to give us a update views??? and projection of your insighfulness?
Thank you Master
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What vehicle?
Gold was updated. NUGT also.
I will post a chart in EurUsd
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4thewin chartwatchers
I think this is the Top of the channel you were looking for...
snapshot
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Why is your core position short? Thx
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Because we are in the intermediate decline in gold.
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Do we really have a DCL in Gold? It sure looks like it but I'm concerned about the Euro.. if it breaks trendline support then the dollar could rally up to the 100MA and subsequently put more downside pressure onto Gold/Miners. What do you think Arpi..?
Resistance up ahead for DXY
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itrade9s Nightstar
The overdue dead cat bounce is here? Although I suspect it to remain under 1240 with all rallies to be sold until we enter panic selling stage and breach sub 1200s as Arpi mentioned.

Miners are definitely showing relative strength vs gold as always on both upside and downside.
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That would definetely kill our short term bounce in gold almost immediately.
Smart thoughts nighstar! I keep half eye on the euro!
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chartwatchers PRO chartwatchers
The euro is leading now. What happened thst gold bounced10$ in an hour?
I dont find any news. Its the mid of the night in Europe.
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Nightstar chartwatchers
Same here...
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YD Nightstar
seems like china wants to know when will US rate hikes happen, and prefer July.
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I think 1240 is too shallow a pullback, I think it might go to 1258, then down to 1190...then pullback again to 1235 before complete collapse to 1150 around end of June
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Trendhopper Trendhopper
actually i meant pullback to 1215 before complete collapse
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Absolutely possible scenario. The prices might change a bit .
I have the same thoughts.
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chartwatchers PRO chartwatchers
Could you post these FIBO levels? It would be interesting.
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HI Chartwatcher, your coverage of the gold decline has been majestic....Im a little confused though, your chart says wait for DCL at 1207 and then we have pullback/green line for 5-6 days, however you are now trading a pullback from 1217, does this make the dcl at 1207 invalid and we are getting pullback/green line now or is this pullback a small bounce? Also the decline from 1280-1220 with no pullback was huge, is it likely we will now get a golden retracement 61.8 fib to 1258 before we can get all bears back on board? I think at 1235/1240 a lot of bears will be holding back and price will get stuck here for a few days.
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YEs the 1207 is invalid. I'm trading in real time so things are changing. The main direction is not changing.
It seems that bounce from the 1207 was 1217. The bounce should be up to 1240-1250. 1258 is not out of the table but it's impossible to tell now where will be the turning point. We will see there and try to make the best decision
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Arpi, is there any chance that we are wrong with the bear market? Cause i did not cover with the long position
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Everything is perfect
I just posted read it you will understand. I wouldnt close the shorts right now
It will be a weak bounce.
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