chartwatchers
Long

GOLD - Short term trade idea for the bounce out of the DCL

FX:XAUUSD   Gold / U.S. Dollar
4459 62 58
I must notice the divergence between price and MACD - RSI . On the daily chart we almost tagged the 100 EMA .
My original idea was the bounce from the 100 DEMA at the DCL.
So I will give a chance to the bounce out from the DCL. In this case I suppose that the DCL was today and we will have a bounce up to 1240-50$.
WE are simply too late in this daily cycle, and I have a feeling that the dollar is loosing its strength today.

This trade needs a stop. So if you join put your stops below 1219.50$

The risk is 3.5$.

The plan is unchanged , the daily chart levels are still valid. I just want to take some awful chances.

PS. If you don't agree, don't understand just skip this trade. This is not going to be the trade of the week.
Trade closed: stop reached
Comment: I will reenter again as we printed the lower low and the indicators hasn't changed too much. Same divergence.
So I'm long again with a small position from1221.5$.
Comment: Attacking the 10 EMA
snapshot
Comment: Let me explain again the main plan is unchanged:
we are waiting for gold to enter into the panic selling stage below 1200$.
But we have to print a DCL first and a 4-5 days bounce out of the DCL.
I'm trying to trade this bounce. For those who are holding the shorts it's no problem.
My core position is still short. Just playing this bounce with a small bet.
Comment: Closed above the 10 EMA and attacking the 20 EMA.
snapshot
Arpi, is there any chance that we are wrong with the bear market? Cause i did not cover with the long position
Reply
Everything is perfect
I just posted read it you will understand. I wouldnt close the shorts right now
It will be a weak bounce.
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HI Chartwatcher, your coverage of the gold decline has been majestic....Im a little confused though, your chart says wait for DCL at 1207 and then we have pullback/green line for 5-6 days, however you are now trading a pullback from 1217, does this make the dcl at 1207 invalid and we are getting pullback/green line now or is this pullback a small bounce? Also the decline from 1280-1220 with no pullback was huge, is it likely we will now get a golden retracement 61.8 fib to 1258 before we can get all bears back on board? I think at 1235/1240 a lot of bears will be holding back and price will get stuck here for a few days.
Reply
YEs the 1207 is invalid. I'm trading in real time so things are changing. The main direction is not changing.
It seems that bounce from the 1207 was 1217. The bounce should be up to 1240-1250. 1258 is not out of the table but it's impossible to tell now where will be the turning point. We will see there and try to make the best decision
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I think 1240 is too shallow a pullback, I think it might go to 1258, then down to 1190...then pullback again to 1235 before complete collapse to 1150 around end of June
+1 Reply
Trendhopper Trendhopper
actually i meant pullback to 1215 before complete collapse
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Absolutely possible scenario. The prices might change a bit .
I have the same thoughts.
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chartwatchers PRO chartwatchers
Could you post these FIBO levels? It would be interesting.
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Do we really have a DCL in Gold? It sure looks like it but I'm concerned about the Euro.. if it breaks trendline support then the dollar could rally up to the 100MA and subsequently put more downside pressure onto Gold/Miners. What do you think Arpi..?
Resistance up ahead for DXY
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itrade9s Nightstar
The overdue dead cat bounce is here? Although I suspect it to remain under 1240 with all rallies to be sold until we enter panic selling stage and breach sub 1200s as Arpi mentioned.

Miners are definitely showing relative strength vs gold as always on both upside and downside.
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