chartwatchers
Short

GOLD - Short term targets

FX:XAUUSD   Gold / U.S. Dollar
7328 121 103
So again. Key reversal at a good place acts as a key reversal.
The question are we heading to the DCL, ICL or maybe HCL? - I cannot answer right now.
What is sure we are free falling from the Head & shoulders pattern.

The purple line shows the target counted from the H&S pattern. (1241.68)
I also put the FIBO : I think the 61.8% retracement is realistic. (1248.32)
And watch the blue dotted trendline: I would like to see a tag there.
So the take profit area is in the green rectangle .
I'm also watching the daily chart's EMAs. But first let's how this day closes.

PS.: of course they had to break out the price at the Asian session.

Comment: I don't want to frighten anyone, but today we printed a weekly swing...
RSI turning down, and MACD might printing a Kiss and goodbye...
SlowStoch you are te longs last hope...
I just hope those longs really closed last week at 1308.
snapshot
Comment: The 4hrs head and shoulders pattern is just too big not to be noticed. By now everyone has realized the daily key reversal - which is working- or the H&S pattern - which broke down- and the weekly swing -which is in place.
There is no time frame where we don't have a reversal.
It doesn't seem to me that it will turn back. Time to toast the dip buyers.
Comment: Just a few thoughts regarding Brexit.
I studied a bit the circumstances.
The voting will be on Thursday. The voting will be closed at 22:00 GMT Thursday.

In a few minutes we will have the exit polls. That will be very important.
The first datas will show how close will be the votes.

The majority of regional outcomes will be declared between 2:00 and 4:00 AM (GMT).
By 5:00 AM we will have almost all of the datas.
All the big banks will be standby. Banksters will be working. So if you are positioned better to prepare for Thursday night because there will be extreme volatility between 1:00 and 5:00.
Coffee, girls, snacks - get them ready by Thursday night because you will not have time to jump down to the corner supermarket.
Comment: Banks are working hard today. They've cleaned out the late short entries' stops in the
morning
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Comment: It's almost always the sign that they want to push prices below tha last few hours' lows.
In this case below 1260$
Comment: I have a strange feeling that while the short players - me also - is waiting for a gold collapse early morning when the 1st results are coming out. But the volte results are getting priced today.
So we have to be very very careful. We might have to get out every gold short position today.
Before midnight GMT.
Comment: If we break below 1260$ today afternoon and we tag 1250 or 1240-45 I will close my shorts.
I will be watching the miners action as well. I think miners will print a gap open today wit hsome kind of panic. Here in the Metal trade I dont have miners positions but I have some on my personal account.
If I close those positions I will post here also as I know a lot of you are short in the miners.
Comment: Guys if the banks want to turn gold up first they will panic the longs.
:D
So that is coming now. Sit tight and enjoy the show.
We will have a nice afternoon.
Comment: And we are so lucky. USDJPY broke out...
snapshot
Comment: Ready.
Comment: Steady
Comment: BREEEEAAAAK!
Comment: MIners will be annihilated . Yesterday's break out was just a fake move.
Big players were selling the shares to retail again.
Comment: It's starting.
Hourly MACD crossed over
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Thanks Apri. Looks like the deal hope we can keep the drop for two days. Thanks for detail affort. Really
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They got me... Sneaky bastards, because of this breakout I set my short to stop at breakeven...
No gains from this beautiful drop. Will see if brexit still matters or it was a gimmick for us to pump up.
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Draghi and Yellen !!
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I understand that they doubled the margin requirements for gold contracts effective Monday.
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Thanks Apri :)
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Again Thank you much Arpi !!
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did they double the margins for gold? silver?
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Im at SAXO. There is no change.
But not impossible at your broker.
Before Brexit some brokers are changing margins for GBP.
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Closed my position and expect a correction till Brexit - the final trap.
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Where are all the Bashers and those who put in doubt Arpi's great analysis????? where are they???? why are they silent??? chickens
This guy Analysis is by far hands down the best. Step by Step from where we took off at 1200's. I Love it when most of people are silent. Its beautiful to watch. Thanks for the great and professional work Arpi.
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YHFS babak_eng
lol where is that Bjorn dude?
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:D
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USSRandolph babak_eng
YES, Great question! Where are they now. WHERE ARE YOU BJORN. No comments now from all the doubters; Bjorn, AL_G and all the others; I'll tell you where they are, they're peeing their pants behind a tree somewhere, that's where they are. :)
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Sir.. i have closed my first sell deal from 1283 to 1270 ... the pior sell deal of 1237 is still standing .. 2 questions plz... 1- would u plz tell me the closest price could be reached in order to close the prior deal of 1237?.. 2- can i re-enter a sell deal tonight at 1275? Thanks in advance
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I would not jump in and out. Because at the end of the day you will be caught in the wrong direction.
THere is only 2 hrs left from this day. And it seems to me gold is not standing up.
As we are printing the weekly swing tomorrow might everyone and his dog shorting oil. Big guys might know something regarding Brexit...
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webmiztriz PRO chartwatchers
do u mean shorting gold? or oil .. funnyMan ;)
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Hi Maria . I meant gold.
Haven't seen you for a long time I hope you didn't cheat on me with a long gold guru in the past few days...
:)
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webmiztriz PRO chartwatchers
oh... I've been here.. watching you RobinHood... ;o)
annnnd... I have all my men & snacks all ready....
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toothless chartwatchers
shorting....gold?

you think gold will tank if Brexit does not occur? definitely concerned about holding a position through this voting.
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nice
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Agreed. Tomorrow's Brexit polls will rule gold price. Very risky to be in gold.
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chartwatchers PRO pbartashevich
It will be Thuhrsday night.
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rohithisgood chartwatchers
I bought DUST for the first time ever today. Hope this works out well.
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meaning this going down big time ???
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Nice!
My views:
XAU/USD: Possible counts, structures and levels to watch

Levels to watch to the downside are 1250-1240 and 1200-1190 imo...
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girls.....XD
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It was especially to you CornMan! LOL
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XTAL.ball chartwatchers
Get the girls ready LMOAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
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Hey Girls, have your men waiting in case you need them ;-)
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great prediction !!!
You were always right . .. thank you man, for sharing your thoughts
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Tomorrow (Wed) they going to release one more set of polls results. if they will show that people are leaning toward "stay". We well maybe reach that target by tomorrow. It is only $20 - $25 away. I would still keep shorts going into actual Brexit vote.
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Arpi
When all the dust settles after this "British drama" how do you predict Gold's direction in July?
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It's hard to say now. We might bottom at Brexit. And this would be a half cycle low in the new intermediate cycle's 1st daily cycle.
Or if we break down 1200 than that would be the ICL .
In july - August gold will soar.
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Hi Mister,
what does it mean the terms DCL ICL and HCL ?
Thanks for your response.
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Daily Cycle Low
Intermediate Cycle Low
Half Cycle Low

But chartwatchers would have to explain how to determine each. :)
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pring toothless
Thanks
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what range of this "extreme volatilty"? 1200-1300? 1100-1400?
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Tampax Tampax
if UK stays in Euro gold will fall right
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Building on that: no matter what the outcome thursday, would it make sense to see how far it goes tomorrow and then see if a long setup opens up? Could be safe to assume that gold will go up again pre-referrendum, because of fear and uncertainty? And then close long before the ref. again. Possible?
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nexuz mabaert
wouldnt recommend that cause you would need a realy large stop. the scenario is possible but i expect large volatility the next 3 days so if you are not alrdy positioned in gold i wouldnt open up now. just think about it if we maybe gain 10usd today its quite possible that this gain will get crushed right away cause other ppl want to position short before the vote. its quite possible that we get a giant candle tomorrow with spikes in both directions and im talking about a maybe 80 usd candle maybe even more. it will jump with every bit of news on the vote like a kangaroo on speed.
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Someone please tell me what is DCL, ICL and HCL.
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nexuz Spade
toothless explained that about 5 comments above. these terms are used for cycle trading to mark the possible spots for a reversal.
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My bet is that there will be no Brexit which is surely bearish for Gold and it'll stay that way, that is until most likely the next FOMC meeting in July.
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Is this still metal trade 3 underway? If so, it's look like your actual target was the starting point of the initial short position on metal trade 3 ? What is your true position and actual value of metal trade 3? Thanks
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gold cant break 64 to many atempts today, can spike so hard
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They will break it today. They want to panic the longs
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hahahaha
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Odds of UK leaving EU has lengthened to 6/1 so Gold should go down from here agreed....but I'm expecting a volatile night where it could yo-yo all over the place as results come in from each constituency...one spike could wipe me out...I cannot trade in these circumstances...had I shorted from 1315..then of course I would be laughing....
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What are the TPs for today according to time element. Thanks SIR
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If we break 1260 I dont know how far we can drop. 1250, 1245, 1240.
Be ready I will post. Or put some take profits from 1251 to 1245.
And even if there is a fast move you will make great money.
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AlejandroCL7 chartwatchers
Hello! These TP are before voting results? After results we could expect a lot more downside movement or upside depending on results right? Thank you
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tnk's i think retrace 1275 and after go down down. do you think it's possible?
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chartwatchers PRO giovannicanu
No. They will break 1260 now. that's why they cleaned out the shorts in the morning.
If price would rally because the trend is reversing we would be above the red stop zone . (last posted picture)
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giovannicanu chartwatchers
tnk's i close my long position
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EricBuss chartwatchers
Haha.. U got it,man!! :)
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Thank you Arpi for being so honest and keen to share even your personal account tactics
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dont u mean BJOOOOOOOORN?
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may I ask if ur just using mental stop now?
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Yes: above 1270$ gold short is a dead business.
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Jake666 chartwatchers
Can I short if it goes up to 1263 or even at 1261
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Jake666 Jake666
Forgive my bad manner Hello everyone
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Jake666 Jake666
I have been watching gold go from low to high and down again wanted to short at 1270 but lost the chance
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Your patience and knowledge are being converted into an excellent profit! Greetings, Sir! =)
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Great to see Gold breaking lower, but frustrating for those of us in DUST not to see this translating into more upside. If a Bremain vote is being priced then is their a danger that folk won't sell miners (e.g. GDX) as they know Gold likely to rally again shortly? Presumably today's likely to be best day to get out of DUST too? Thoughts / comments appreciated...
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YEs abosultely possible. But we could see a big panic day today in gold and the miners.
Smartmoney would like to buy cheap. So we will be watching volume and price action.
We can have a great day in DUST.
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MC2016 PRO chartwatchers
Okay; will watch closely and fingers crossed for the right kind of panic! Thanks very much. MC
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I'm with you in DUST and don't understand as you why we don't have a move upside. I'm waiting for your signal Arpi to close my DUST position.
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thank you for the updates , and a great trade !
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do you think is going to drop further and than rally again ?
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Breaking News: Bjooooooooooooooooooooorn is nowhere to be seen. Searching continues. Man I am Loving this:) Viva Arpi :) Viva Hungary:) by the way congrats to you and your country for qualifying to the next round in Euro 2016:) Impossible is Nothing Stay safe everybody
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target 1245?
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Thanks Apri... Coz of you Gotta New Audi!!! :P
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Inner peace... DUST holders.
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ice_holly01 PRO pbartashevich
I hear you! :)
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investment6300 pbartashevich
O boy tell me about it
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marketpundit pbartashevich
It's not easy ;) But will try ))
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I was stupid just to do dust and not short gold at first, but this is how you learn hahaha $$$$$$ lost
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Oil should drop soon to bring CAD on board to help DXY. Don't loose faith guys. This Golds down move is for long time - month(s) to go. They already making case for July rate hike rhetoric. "Joblesss claims is 40 years low.."" and so on. Yellen said multiple time "We believe that low job report was transitionary" - they know for sure.
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Tampax pbartashevich
problem is how high it will go before going down...
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Not much from here. it is just consolidating around 50% fib. now think if we bounce from here - that should be a strong move - around $20- $25 dollars. Such move in current circumstances when people don't believe that UK will leave (look and DAX, NKY, DOW) can only be triggered by UK vote to leave. Which geopolitical and economically shoot not even in the foot, but in the head. Impossible for UK to leave. Therefore we go down after breaking that $1256 support (50% fib). Maybe not going to happen until vote result.
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Tampax pbartashevich
66 going up...
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That is small move. I would start be worry when we get above 1271 but still won't sell. I just think shorting Gold is a solid idea for this month. Thursday showed me that THEY don't want it to go higher.
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I hope it is second shoulder on 5 minutes chart GDX forming right now.
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After all we all betting here that UK will stay right? and what is more important that THEY know that too so sell off of GDX is scheduled at the end of the day right before results come out. Tomorrow morning will be too late.
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Another though. Anybody saw a lot of gold buying or volume after Thursday's reversal till Tuesday? I saw selling. That gives a tip of how COT report will look like tomorrow. I bet short positions added to both Speculators and Commercials. So we are not alone here.
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Arpi
Looks like we will not get to $1250 before the end of day here in North America, do you recommend getting rid of shorts before 4pm?
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Resistance at the 1267 mark is indicating a forming H&S pattern once complete this should see us to 1248 next few hrs.
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Yeah looks like we are heading down. At $1256.80 we have 50 MA and some support line. If you are right we going to break it.
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EricBuss pbartashevich
At this point. I would settle FOR 1254.. Meaning--(Close all position&Breakeven:)
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Common, you going to miss big move after hours :).
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GDX looks more like rising wedge on 5 min chart and it looks like we doing to break it down.
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Look at ABX, AUY, GG, NEM, KGC, GOLD - all in minus today. GDX in a plus - not solid.
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DUST OFF!
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if no action on DUST before today's close, who's keeping DUST overnight? I am in DUST and don't really like it at the moment ;) Looks like Gold has to tank for people to start damping Miners Shares & GDX. I just hope that the BREMAIN has not been factored in by the market already.
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pbartashevich PRO marketpundit
I am all in DUST. This week banks were buying stocks across all markets betting on "no exit". So am I. Admit, it is almost casino.
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marketpundit pbartashevich
just as you pointed out earlier, I just checked, big miners are .40% - 1.90% negative. yet, GDX is positive and DUST negative. makes me uneasy. :(
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Gold stands unmoved, very unusual. Maybe it's all already priced in.
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There is absolutely no interest in buying gold at these prices. Considering that we had selling in gold last week AT HIGHER prices than now - everybody who wanted to buy gold already bought it.
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Speculators now buying stocks - they are breaking out. If we get "no leave" - massive sell of in Gold. There will be just no reason to hold it.
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4thewin pbartashevich
perhaps but wouldn't the pound and euro do well if they stay? Thus Dollar > down. Everyone holding dollars in fear sell = good for gold?
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Remained mining stocks should sell off this hour I guess if anything left.
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Here we go. No more playing games.
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marketpundit pbartashevich
From your lips to God's ears! lol )))
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pbartashevich PRO marketpundit
:) Scary huh? I will just take my chance and keep my DUST. Will cry tomorrow if doesn't work out.
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marketpundit pbartashevich
I was hoping for a good night sleep with plenty of dough under the pillow tonight )))). Looks like insomnia is on the list for tonight. I am pretty heavy in DUST. And, very much reluctant to take a loss (if sold now). Will remain in trade as well.
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pbartashevich PRO marketpundit
Well media in UK will be able to open their mouths at 5pm EST. So by night sleep we should have an idea how did it go:)
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PF7 pbartashevich
So, do we sell those shorts or keep them for the night? That's the question!!! :)
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