GOLD COT - 2016.10.18.

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The Commitment of Traders report ( COT ) is published at the close of every Friday's trade and it always shows the Tuesday COT data. The formula for Blees rating uses the Commercial Traders net contract holdings at the date of the current COT report. We inserted the Blees rating into the daily chart .

The net commercial short position dropped by 20k again by last Tuesday. The number is 202.671. Not only commercial shorts decreased but also commercial longs increased last week...
The last time we had that low number of commercial shorts was at 2016.03.22. And at that time we were just starting this long term consolidation. The Blees rating is at 42. It's very close to the level which suggest a big direction change to the upwards.

It seems to me commercials are trying to get rid of their shorts in a big hurry. Even price was rising on Monday and Tuesday their short position still decreased. They are closing their shorts in the rally.
That is predicting a big rally in November maybe starting next week.

I will post a complex gold             update tomorrow...
Thanks Arpi.
Nice work and research!
+1 Reply
thanks for all your hard work Arpi, appreciated
what about the $, does that play into this? Seems like the DXY isn't done yet.
VirtualFax selfhigh05
Tend to agree. Dollar seems to be as bullish as it was 11 months ago with the same bullish crossover of the MAs and with only one remaining resistance at 99.83 on its way to the top of the channel at around 100.50. Hope it'll bounce off downwards from there; otherwise, Gold will turn from bullish to bullshit (still unlikely though).


What's interesting though, miners especially juniors seem to be running already. My favorite IAG already advanced 30% from its Oct 7 low, running fairly close behind JNUG, which is triple leveraged.
+1 Reply
TwitChute PRO VirtualFax

If you take a really really long look at the DXY it may have already hit its limit around 98.80
VirtualFax TwitChute
Good point.

But here is an alternate really really really really long look at DXY.

Just proves how subjective TA could be : )

+1 Reply
TwitChute PRO VirtualFax
@VirtualFax Yes always subjective and even if you correctly identify a pattern the chances are never 100%
But similar to science, we set conditions to invalidate ideas.
Your upper trend is rising and mine is falling so either wait to see lower highs or higher highs. We should find out fairly soon.
Calamity TwitChute
i cant post picture, but just look the headshoulder structure and rethink what happened to GBP. btw i was shorting gbp to 1.1890 and on that flash it hit my limit.........the gbp was on a large head-shoulder structure too
+1 Reply
thanks, yes I noticed that as well. Seems very similar to the h&s in 2001
Calamity VirtualFax
totally agree with u with dollar
very helpful-how high???!
Alan Simpson
Arpi, you always have the best analysis... I so enjoy reading them and have learned so much :). Thank you
Thank you. Really appreciate. Why do you measure the commercial hedgers and not the non-commercials, as everybody recommends?
I've never really understood why any trader would have much interest in the COT reports. They are old news, and the actual current price will reflect all the numbers in the COT anyway in realtime (not several days later:s).
VirtualFax Trader382
For a day trader, I agree, COT reports are useless. However, for mid-term (few weeks to a few months time horizon) "swingers" the reports can provide valuable insight into developing trends.
Where did you get COT numbers? on the numbers for the week ending October 18 are completely different:
Long Short
Net Prior Change Gross Change Gross Change
Gold 179.6k 195.2k -15.6k 274.3k -9.0k 94.7k 6.6k
Which means the short positions have increased by +6,6k and long positions have decreased by -9k.
Keep up your work. It is a pleasure to read your posts.
+1 Reply
Nice work. I added Market Geometry and I like seeing the COT numbers as an overlay/underlay. Thanks!
+1 Reply
Blees is at 42 with commercials net shorts 199,966 contracts. I think we have a rally coming but not quite sure its magnitude
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