GOLD COT - 2016.10.18.

FX_IDC:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
2045 19 53
The Commitment of Traders report ( COT ) is published at the close of every Friday's trade and it always shows the Tuesday COT data. The formula for Blees rating uses the Commercial Traders net contract holdings at the date of the current COT report. We inserted the Blees rating into the daily chart .

The net commercial short position dropped by 20k again by last Tuesday. The number is 202.671. Not only commercial shorts decreased but also commercial longs increased last week...
The last time we had that low number of commercial shorts was at 2016.03.22. And at that time we were just starting this long term consolidation. The Blees rating is at 42. It's very close to the level which suggest a big direction change to the upwards.

It seems to me commercials are trying to get rid of their shorts in a big hurry. Even price was rising on Monday and Tuesday their short position still decreased. They are closing their shorts in the rally.
That is predicting a big rally in November maybe starting next week.

I will post a complex gold             update tomorrow...
Blees is at 42 with commercials net shorts 199,966 contracts. I think we have a rally coming but not quite sure its magnitude
Nice work. I added Market Geometry and I like seeing the COT numbers as an overlay/underlay. Thanks!
+1 Reply
Where did you get COT numbers? on the numbers for the week ending October 18 are completely different:
Long Short
Net Prior Change Gross Change Gross Change
Gold 179.6k 195.2k -15.6k 274.3k -9.0k 94.7k 6.6k
Which means the short positions have increased by +6,6k and long positions have decreased by -9k.
Keep up your work. It is a pleasure to read your posts.
+1 Reply
I've never really understood why any trader would have much interest in the COT reports. They are old news, and the actual current price will reflect all the numbers in the COT anyway in realtime (not several days later:s).
VirtualFax Trader382
For a day trader, I agree, COT reports are useless. However, for mid-term (few weeks to a few months time horizon) "swingers" the reports can provide valuable insight into developing trends.
Thank you. Really appreciate. Why do you measure the commercial hedgers and not the non-commercials, as everybody recommends?
Arpi, you always have the best analysis... I so enjoy reading them and have learned so much :). Thank you
very helpful-how high???!
Alan Simpson
what about the $, does that play into this? Seems like the DXY isn't done yet.
VirtualFax selfhigh05
Tend to agree. Dollar seems to be as bullish as it was 11 months ago with the same bullish crossover of the MAs and with only one remaining resistance at 99.83 on its way to the top of the channel at around 100.50. Hope it'll bounce off downwards from there; otherwise, Gold will turn from bullish to bullshit (still unlikely though).

What's interesting though, miners especially juniors seem to be running already. My favorite IAG already advanced 30% from its Oct 7 low, running fairly close behind JNUG, which is triple leveraged.
+1 Reply
EN English
EN English (UK)
EN English (IN)
DE Deutsch
FR Français
ES Español
IT Italiano
PL Polski
SV Svenska
TR Türkçe
RU Русский
PT Português
ID Bahasa Indonesia
MS Bahasa Melayu
TH ภาษาไทย
VI Tiếng Việt
JA 日本語
KO 한국어
ZH 简体中文
ZH 繁體中文
AR العربية
Home Stock Screener Forex Signal Finder Cryptocurrency Signal Finder Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features House Rules Moderators Website & Broker Solutions Widgets Stock Charting Library Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Help & Wiki Twitter
Profile Profile Settings Account and Billing My Support Tickets Contact Support Ideas Published Followers Following Private Messages Chat Sign Out