When Everyone’s Buying, I’m Watching for the Top

As we’ve grown used to by now, Gold sets a new ATH almost every day — and by the time we, in Europe, wake up, it’s already 300–400 pips higher.
Yet despite the strong bullish momentum, speculative trading remains extremely difficult. Sudden drops of hundreds of pips can easily hit your stop loss if your entry timing isn’t perfect.

From my perspective — even though I don’t have an open position — the idea remains the same: a correction is inevitable.
Since Friday’s low, the price has rallied around 3,000 pips — a fabulous move, but like any late-stage rally, it’s becoming excessive and irrational (even more than it already was).
Of course, it can always go higher, but the more it exaggerates, the faster it tends to normalize.

As I mentioned before, my approach remains focused on identifying potential tops — and while that’s the riskiest thing a trader can do, it has worked quite well during the sharp downward spikes of the last two weeks.

Technically, the move from Friday’s low is forming a rising wedge, with resistance around 4270, which is where I’ll be looking to sell.
The target zone is roughly 1,000 pips lower.

One encouraging factor — even more so than before — is the noticeable narrowing of the spread between futures and spot, now at just 0.2–0.25%, compared to the usual ~1% (and sometimes higher) during strong bullish phases.