chartwatchers
Long

GOLD - Midnight surprise

FX:XAUUSD   Gold/U.S. Dollar
3815 22 79
7 months ago
While I was waiting for FED I made this chart. I highlighted all the FED and FED minutes days.
On the 27.04. we had a FOMC meeting. At those days we were also in a triangle.
The next day we broke out of the triangle and printed 2 days of strong rally to the daily cycle high. (Highligted by blue rectangle )
I think there is a decent chance the same thing is happening now. This week we should print the daily cycle high and we need a higher high above 1376.
If you watch the chart very carefully you will see that we closed above the bear market trendline today (green). So if the powers want gold             to break out they will do it tonight in the next few hours.

Indicators:
MACD wants to crossover
RSI is heading to overbought - bouncing the 2nd time without getting overbought

If I'M right we will have a pop to 1390-1400 in the next 2-3 days that will be the cycle top of this 2nd daily cycle.

I will set this idea as long. I'm long from 1315-1324 and still convinced about the breakout to 1390.

P.S.: Thanks to mrtommifunn who helped me to find the 27.04. breakout
7 months ago
Comment: We have a never ending seller in gold.
It's in America.
But I think he is running out of gold now.
No big slam today.
whawk PRO
7 months ago
I'm along for the ride. Interested to see if this materializes!
Thank you as always. -W
+1 Reply
CagatayCetin
7 months ago
Arpi, nice analysis mate. I'd like to know your thoughts about possible resistance (punch down) lines. Why am I asking this? Because this setup is really convincing! I'm still suspicious about all these FED manupilations (damn that Dudley) but I really want to know your choice of SL level for a buy from this point on. By the way, if we do approach 1390-1400 on thursday & friday, what's next? Any predictions of falling back to mid 1300s?
+1 Reply
Newwarez CagatayCetin
7 months ago
For the stop loss he mentioned in one of his posts earlier it is on 1309
+1 Reply
CagatayCetin Newwarez
7 months ago
No, I mean if I long a position at 1349 (now) what should the SL be? 1343 maybe?
+1 Reply
staurum PRO
7 months ago
wow exactly the same thing, so maybe now is 1400 turns
+1 Reply
GoldB777
7 months ago
I agree. We have about a week until Jackson Hole fed, so there is plenty of time..
+1 Reply
lbg01 PRO
7 months ago
Thank you for your analysis.
So if you are right and gold prints the DCH, what do you do?
a) exit position and short to the DCL?
b) partial profit and reload on the pullback?
c) Exit all together and wait for a dip (this will still be bullish right)?

thanks a lot, I´m just learning here...
+1 Reply
caneman
7 months ago
Be patient people! we are waiting for two or three big green bars out of the triangle then its over... be alert, it will happen within the next week, imo... then its a red bars down 1320 right up to FOMC Sep
+1 Reply
Mannnassser
7 months ago
Arpi... is it possible technically to consider 1375 was the top for gold and price may go down without printing a new high?
+1 Reply
ice_holly01 Mannnassser
7 months ago
I was about to ask the same question. Thanks.
+1 Reply
chartwatchers PRO Mannnassser
7 months ago
We need a higher high.
Reply
chartwatchers PRO chartwatchers
7 months ago
Even 1380 is enough.
Reply
USSRandolph
7 months ago
Trying to break out of the triangle at 1352... Everybody push hard!
Reply
USSRandolph USSRandolph
7 months ago
Europe or Asia will do it if USA doesn't.
Reply
pbartashevich PRO
7 months ago
Today support is holding pretty well. I have re-entered at slightly better price. Fingers crossed.
Reply
pbartashevich PRO
7 months ago
Also today we have confirmed those hammers that was printed yesterday in mining stocks, gold and silver. I just think that if we break this triangle upward the move will not be short lived, since it is quite a consolidation that was happening for a long time, so move should be sizable.
Reply
Nightstar
7 months ago
Midnight Surprise --- Sounds like a late night 'booty call' Lol! Me likes :)

But I also don't think Gold will tag 1390 this time around folks. There aren't enough Buyers at the moment and a triangle consolidation can easily turn into a sideways consolidation - with perhaps an undercut low to mark the next DCL - to give time for the 200MA to catch up before the next leg up.
+2 Reply
TomUnderwood
7 months ago
Your views on changes of COT reports would be appreciate since that is what drives this market

Best
Reply
donnalife
7 months ago
gold looks weak, and silver no qustion about it ,whats your opinion my friend, thanks
Reply
chartwatchers PRO donnalife
7 months ago
new post
Reply
MetalCruisers PRO
7 months ago
Triangle broken downside. I think it is game over for Bulls!
Reply
Simon_says
7 months ago
Read an article about US stock market and precious metals manipulation.
They compared recent investing to playing a poker game against a person with infinite amount of chips.
I think they will never run out of the gold/silver as they manipulate price with paper gold and don't have to deliver it.
Gold will skyrocket when BANKSTERS will decide enough if enough.

Some other people say US keeps gold prices low so, China could accumulate it.
Apparently China needs that gold to be included into SDR global currency - at the moment there are only 4 currencies https://www.imf.org/external/np/fin/data/rms_sdrv.aspx
To be included into SDR Valuation, China needs few % of their GDP backed in gold. Officially they have only 0.7% of their GDP backed by gold. https://www.youtube.com/watch%3Fv%3DICLxRFSYwGk
As soon they will get enough gold, crisis will hit and gold will fly and Chinese Yuan will go up.

What do you guys think about this?
Reply
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