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Gold: Could trend line hold it ?. Depend on USDollar.

FX:XAUUSD   Gold/U.S. Dollar
118 0 0
It seems Gold             bounced back from the long term bearish trend line, but I'm not sure this trend line could hold it.

We see Gold             is under pressure last two years : The main reason we all know is the strength of greenback.

Some economists bet on Gold             below $1000/ounce, but I don't think so.

Fundamental is supporting the return of Gold             as a safe haven shelter.

Global economy is facing many problems which are very difficult to deal.

- Japan : low inflation is comming back.

- China: Housing sector and stock market crash.

- Australia: low growth and the devaluation of commodity price.

- New Zealand: low price of dairy product: Main export.

- Eurozone: Low inflation and low recovery from debt crisis as well as Greece case and immigrant crisis.

- US : Low consumer spending and inflation made a hard case for FED ' lift-off'

With those reasons, investors is considering to rebuy GOLD             .

The only reason they still hesitate is the greenback.

We all want FED hike rate this year to consolidate the strength of US economy and the greenback.

Only well-performance of US economy, investors buy Dollar to invest into US, we see Gold             is forgotten.

Next week, lot of US economic data with strong data is payrolls would have largely impact on gold             reaction.

- Technical Analysis:

- Long term bearish trend line is capturing price below it.

- SMA200's near 1180

- Kumo cloud is below the price.

Any break the trend line is a strong signal of large recovery,

But a bounce is limited at Kumo cloud.

That is a small range: Gold             must choose trend :

- 1 : Break trend line
- 2 : Move below Kumo

In my experience, I think most likely Gold             will break the trend line.


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