Back to bearish, but there is a cheap Option in FED FUNDS
Risk on again. USD stronger. Rates still hesitating a bit to go higher, but Gold is hit again.
As I wrote yestedray, 1155 was/is the ultimate key level. By now Bears are back in control.
Daily:
- Price turned lower from trendline. Ichimoku setup is increasing bearish now as Price dips below Kijun and Kumo.
- Heikin Ashi signal is firm bearish.
4H:
- Absolutely bearish both in term of Ichimoku and Heikin Ashi
(I tried one last counter buy at 1130 spike yesterday, but stopped out today at 1122-1124)
Why is gold suddenly sold again? Because we see some spike in equities and strength in Dollar? Ok, why do we see those? Does mkt start to believe FED will finally do one hike just to restore credibility, and for this reason the short term outlook gets a bit more rosy? That is possible.
So here is my cheap option idea to play: that is FED FUNDS FUTURES!
If we think a bit reflexive, what would the FED chose if they were about to hike to restore credibility only? Would they wait until December or 2016? Nope. I think on next FOMC meeting they would show strength and their confidence in real economy, which means a hike on October! Well, if you check FED funds pricing, and probabilities, money mkt doesn't really believe in an October hike, not even in a december hike. So how to play this "low probability" scenario?
Sell November Fed Funds Futures!!! Mkt bid is 99,83. If they hike in november, the avg FED Funds cash rate will be a lot lower until November expiry, so you can make appr 15-20 pips,. Downside is that they do not hike, the you lose 3 pips. Quite a cheap option I think.
As I wrote yestedray, 1155 was/is the ultimate key level. By now Bears are back in control.
Daily:
- Price turned lower from trendline. Ichimoku setup is increasing bearish now as Price dips below Kijun and Kumo.
- Heikin Ashi signal is firm bearish.
4H:
- Absolutely bearish both in term of Ichimoku and Heikin Ashi
(I tried one last counter buy at 1130 spike yesterday, but stopped out today at 1122-1124)
Why is gold suddenly sold again? Because we see some spike in equities and strength in Dollar? Ok, why do we see those? Does mkt start to believe FED will finally do one hike just to restore credibility, and for this reason the short term outlook gets a bit more rosy? That is possible.
So here is my cheap option idea to play: that is FED FUNDS FUTURES!
If we think a bit reflexive, what would the FED chose if they were about to hike to restore credibility only? Would they wait until December or 2016? Nope. I think on next FOMC meeting they would show strength and their confidence in real economy, which means a hike on October! Well, if you check FED funds pricing, and probabilities, money mkt doesn't really believe in an October hike, not even in a december hike. So how to play this "low probability" scenario?
Sell November Fed Funds Futures!!! Mkt bid is 99,83. If they hike in november, the avg FED Funds cash rate will be a lot lower until November expiry, so you can make appr 15-20 pips,. Downside is that they do not hike, the you lose 3 pips. Quite a cheap option I think.
