GOLD - 2nd wave next week

FX:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
4229 62 71
This Friday we had day 39 in the 4th daily cycle. It's quite a long daily cycle .
We've reached the 1st level at the end of the 1st wave at the 50 EMA and the blue trendline .
Next week we have to print a DCL with RSI oversold at or near to the 100 EMA . Bulls will have to face with the next big surprise: the blue area is not a bull flag . It's going to break down not to the upside...

The first 3 daily cyle lasted for 25-30 days, this one is already 10 days longer so timewise we have to print the DCL at the beginning of next week (Tuesday or Wed)

Indicators: 10 and 20 EMA is crossing over, MACD very bearish , RSI is heading to oversold...
So this 2-3 days will be really scary for the goldbugs, by the DCL we will loose most of the weak bulls.

So next week I'm looking forward to see price printing a daily cycle low around the red trendline and the 100 EMA (1220-1225).
Don't forget : time is the keyword. (For the following levels pls             check "The bear awakens" post)
Comment: Waiting fir the hourly triangle to break down:
Comment: We have the same trendline-crawling-story...
Comment: We entered the 2nd wave today.
I would like to see as price is coming down into the red box by Wednesday.
Comment: Testing back the triangle?
Comment: We are deep in the 2nd wave.
Tomorrow or On Thursday we will enter into the red box there will be tha daily cycle low.
Comment: And here comes the price breaking down the bull flag.
Last hope of the bulls has fallen.
Hi Arpi, spot on as always :). Btw are you expecting rebound from 1227 to 1240-50s? (If I am not mistaken 1227 is roughly where the recent rally started) 100% Fib retracement. (I know you prefer to work with moving avarages, but just wondering what you think about this area)
piaspa piaspa
Btw the 100% fib is from the last move up not the entire rally since January :-) (just so that I do not confuse people)
We'v arrived to the bottom of the 2nd wave. It was a bit too fast for me. But that1s gold.
Once finds the direction it's unstoppable.
The question are we at the DCL or it has to fall 1 or 2 days more.
I will check the chart today and post.
chartwatchers chartwatchers
With FIB we have to see the whole rally from january as this decline is the decline of this 4.5 months rally.
+2 Reply
Just reach new low 1233. Thank you arpi. I will hold my position
Hi April, I took your advice and bought DUST yesterday. Should I be selling on today's strength and looking to buy back in? I'm a complete noob at this so please forgive me. We appreciate all the hard work you do!
Cheetsbaby84 Cheetsbaby84
Hey Arpi ! Is it any expected top pullback when hits the red box (1232-1222) ? I draw a Fibo retracement line and .382 hits 1254 and .5 (1263), do you think the smartmoney will get out in action to make it higher or its still too soon and only retailers will try to push it now ? Thanks
After the DCL is reached are you going to switch back to long right away? im a bit lost in this gold cycle tbh thought it would drop deeper
Hold the position until the red field or to close the half?
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