Gold - Thursday on the hourly chart

FX:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
619 8 13
Today I was waiting for a stronger decline, but gold's intermediate declines are starting slowly.
Once she finds the right direction she is unstoppable.

Why did I halfed down the XAUUSD             position?
I'm still sure that gold             topped 4 days ago. I still think that we are heading down to the 50 EMA and later to the 200 EMA . Nothing has changed.But I think gold             will try to throw us a curveball tomorrow on the NFP...
I think most of you are overleveraged and it's always better to take profit at the bottom what I see than stop out at the top...

When we had the double bottom and the false breakout I knew that we will break down the 200 EMA . The question was do we stay there or not. After we broke down the 200 EMA and price tagged the daily 10 EMA (hourly 240 EMA ) and reversed immediately I knew this is not the day when we have the fast decline to the 50 EMA . Gold             might not be ready yet.

So tomorrow we could have 2 options:

1. There is a chance that we just continue this decline and now just waiting for the 10 & 20 EMA to catch up the price. If this is the case I will reenter again.

2. But I think tomorrow before/after / or at the NFP gold             will pop and stop out the shorts , pull in some more bulls and reverses into a strong decline.
Only the not leveraged funds and smartmoney will survive and hold the short positions.
Because smartmoney is heavily short as the COT report shows....
Comment: It seems we are having the 2nd scenario.
I will give back the closed XAUUSD position in the metal trade between 1290 and 1300.
If the number is strong - like 250-260.000 - they will pull up gold before the number is released.
If the number is weak - 200.000 or below - it will pop after the number and commercials will slam it in the following 5-10 minutes
Comment: So far so good.
Be ready because between 1271 and 1274 more and more traders will realize that something stinks in this "rally" : it was a fake breakout and a bull trap full retail traders are activated.
I was waiting for an attack this night on gold to push price below 1170 but maybe because of the bad China news it didn't happen...

When you say "I will give back the closed XAUUSD position in the metal trade between 1290 and 1300." you mean that you gonna close your top position in gold if the NFP is weak and the bulls are coming closer ?
Yesterday I closed 50 XAUUSD short ( I bought it back). Now I want to sell that 50 XAUUSD again.
Just a higher price than I closed. ( I closed - bought back - around 1272) and now I would like to sell it around 1290...
RogerS chartwatchers
Right, I see ! I still have a short position open at 1277 and 1279, not sure if it can go up even more without NFP report release. In case is weak I'll hold it till comes back down again. Not sure about hedging it and take some profit at 1300 because this days are really volatile and maybe turns down before expected.
tcp007 chartwatchers
Hope you waited a little longer than 1290 ;) Good call, either way!
It was 1292.21. Gold is fighting hard against us..
The prognosis was not bad at all.
TRADER727 chartwatchers
If we look at this pattern, gold sells down into related news and pop's 10+ pts... every time. Just saying : ) I'm with ya on the down cycle, Tuesday,Wednesday should continue its decline
I will post a new chart tomorrow.
Friday's green daily candle was a trap for bulls to stay in position for the weekend.
The attack will come on Sunday night.
TRADER727 chartwatchers
I guess that DUST I bought @ 1.32 should fare just fine then Have an awesome weekend / from Sunny Florida ;)
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