Gold - Thursday on the hourly chart
Today I was waiting for a stronger decline, but gold's intermediate declines are starting slowly.
Once she finds the right direction she is unstoppable.
Why did I halfed down the XAUUSD position?
I'm still sure that gold topped 4 days ago. I still think that we are heading down to the 50 EMA and later to the 200 EMA. Nothing has changed.But I think gold will try to throw us a curveball tomorrow on the NFP...
I think most of you are overleveraged and it's always better to take profit at the bottom what I see than stop out at the top...
When we had the double bottom and the false breakout I knew that we will break down the 200 EMA. The question was do we stay there or not. After we broke down the 200 EMA and price tagged the daily 10 EMA (hourly 240 EMA) and reversed immediately I knew this is not the day when we have the fast decline to the 50 EMA. Gold might not be ready yet.
So tomorrow we could have 2 options:
1. There is a chance that we just continue this decline and now just waiting for the 10 & 20 EMA to catch up the price. If this is the case I will reenter again.
2. But I think tomorrow before/after / or at the NFP gold will pop and stop out the shorts , pull in some more bulls and reverses into a strong decline.
Only the not leveraged funds and smartmoney will survive and hold the short positions.
Because smartmoney is heavily short as the COT report shows....
Once she finds the right direction she is unstoppable.
Why did I halfed down the XAUUSD position?
I'm still sure that gold topped 4 days ago. I still think that we are heading down to the 50 EMA and later to the 200 EMA. Nothing has changed.But I think gold will try to throw us a curveball tomorrow on the NFP...
I think most of you are overleveraged and it's always better to take profit at the bottom what I see than stop out at the top...
When we had the double bottom and the false breakout I knew that we will break down the 200 EMA. The question was do we stay there or not. After we broke down the 200 EMA and price tagged the daily 10 EMA (hourly 240 EMA) and reversed immediately I knew this is not the day when we have the fast decline to the 50 EMA. Gold might not be ready yet.
So tomorrow we could have 2 options:
1. There is a chance that we just continue this decline and now just waiting for the 10 & 20 EMA to catch up the price. If this is the case I will reenter again.
2. But I think tomorrow before/after / or at the NFP gold will pop and stop out the shorts , pull in some more bulls and reverses into a strong decline.
Only the not leveraged funds and smartmoney will survive and hold the short positions.
Because smartmoney is heavily short as the COT report shows....
Comment:
So far so good.
Be ready because between 1271 and 1274 more and more traders will realize that something stinks in this "rally" : it was a fake breakout and a bull trap full retail traders are activated.
I was waiting for an attack this night on gold to push price below 1170 but maybe because of the bad China news it didn't happen...
GOLD WAS NOT ABLE TO RALLY TO NEW HIGHS ON THE WEAK NFP DATA.
Be ready because between 1271 and 1274 more and more traders will realize that something stinks in this "rally" : it was a fake breakout and a bull trap full retail traders are activated.
I was waiting for an attack this night on gold to push price below 1170 but maybe because of the bad China news it didn't happen...
GOLD WAS NOT ABLE TO RALLY TO NEW HIGHS ON THE WEAK NFP DATA.
I will give back the closed XAUUSD position in the metal trade between 1290 and 1300.
If the number is strong - like 250-260.000 - they will pull up gold before the number is released.
If the number is weak - 200.000 or below - it will pop after the number and commercials will slam it in the following 5-10 minutes