pixi

Is Gold in bubble ?

FX:XAUUSD   Gold / U.S. Dollar
2696 40 71
hi,
This is not a chart for trading or to get entry/exit levels.

I remember in 2010 when newspapers/ news on television were beginning to focus on gold             price (media attention).
From this point, i tried to find if gold             have real similitudes before and after with a classic bubble. Obviously, it does.

This is theorical and not a trade plan.

Comments are really welcome but, please, avoid this kind of comments : "do it in log scale, you'll see the difference" or "The system is collapsing and gold             can't go back as low as 600$, because gold             is THE money" ;)
Hello, Pixi! Excellent vision. Fully opposite for the mine (2000+ in Gold in few years). Thus very interesting who will be right here. I see you much better than I in forecasting the Gold. Just ask you to share your vision for the community if it safe to wait 1480-1520 in a few weeks or month. If your setup is correct it is a logical than Funds are going to sell higher, so 1500 level is a great area to do it. Will see. Thanks for your activity. I like your posts. All the best to you from my side. Be happy and successful!
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pixi FreshOilTrader
Thanks for your comment FreshOilTrader. Indeed, the "return to normal" should be around the previous 2011/2013 support at 1500. We'll see ;)
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thanks sir. but have you consider gold is the real money it is not like paper money ? and then the bubble of the economic life cycle is on the way to drop down which cause the gold will shoot up like 2011
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pixi benzhaidang
Sorry, but since the end of Bretton Woods in 1971, Fiat Currency (especially Dollars) is no longer backed by physical Gold. So gold is just a commodity. I think one day gold/silver will come back to the monetary scene but as long as people are confident in fiat currency, there is no reason that gold value goes up. And remember that we are trading gold paper, manipulation on upside and downside is buisness as usual.
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Historically all fiat currencies have collapsed so this will be no different. The question is how soon.
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pixi yongmoon
fully agree ! The next question is : which will be the substitute ? Gold/Silver, CryptoCurrencies or both ?
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This doesn't include inflation, QE, low rates, normal 50% retracement, that gold is money and that were and are in a recession. It looks like gold might be going down if it breaks below the 1300 levels, but I can't see it going below 1100 within the next 2-3 years.
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snapshot


If you adjust for inflation (using federal numbers obviously, best we have here) - we can see it did a beautiful double top from the high's a few decades before. Quite something isn't it.
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pixi lowstrife
Nice chart and good comments for this idea. Thanks @lowstrife
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@pixi, Thanks. And you had a killer idea as well. I share your chart whenever someone asks for my comment on gold, it's beautiful. Looks like things are going onward with it as well, the dollar is super strong ATM pushing it down. Too bad we'll have to wait a few years to see it turn out.
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Nice image, it shows how important it is to understand the psychology, not just price movement, nice job
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pixi TAS
thanks TAS
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Gold is a hedge against confidence in government and money. Nothing more, nothing less. The way the geopolitical sphere is shaping, gold is an undervalued commodity. Especially if Dollar pegs fail to be sustained by emerging markets and the IMF implement SDRs which will cause gold to ROCKET to highs.
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pixi Gekko.uk
Agree, all is question about confidence in Fiat money !
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i agree. gold has made a big impulsive wave. we are currently in a weekly/monthly chart correctional pattern. we have done a good job at holding prices a bit high and are currently trading a B wave which is why market has just been ranging overall. we should get a c wave once the B completes which can take months or years since it is likely to be a very extensive b wave. depending on longevity and how high B wave tests, we can see how price has the possibility of falling. the longer price holds, the more accepted it is and it is still trading fairly high.
deffinetly a great chart you posted :)
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pixi DAVID_GIRALDO
Thanks for your elliott wave comment ;)
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the fact that many goldbugs still believe in 5000$ .. i'd say its pretty sure it will go down a lot moar :)
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Birgitbonander wonkytonkydonky
gold = limited value
fiat currency = unlimited

thus gold price -> unlimited fiat value.

Simple mathematics.
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Birgitbonander Birgitbonander
I'd say gold to 10,000 usd by 2030.
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wonkytonkydonky Birgitbonander
goldbug confirmed lol goodluck with that
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Gekko.uk wonkytonkydonky
You must be darn ignorant to believe Fiat currencies will survive in the next 15 years. I am not saying they will cease to exist but the historic cover rate of 40% will need to return. Gold will be 10,000 USD / Troy ounce when that happens.
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even if fiat currencies get rekt.. who sais gold will be the hedge? maybe something else will be the hedge.. because there's much more money to be made in something with lower . I don't know what gold will do All I see is alot of ppl want price of gold to go up and that often indicates it will not..
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wonkytonkydonky wonkytonkydonky
because there's much more money to be made in something with lower * price *
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albertwt Birgitbonander
That sounds like Jim Rickards prediction ;-)
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haha, Brilliant
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Very nice analysis buddy. Thx for sharing!
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Many thanks for sharing the Gold prediction report chart mate !
I guess it is still not a good year to buy / accumulate gold this year based on the chart you posted.
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:) Very good outline of sentiments
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Interesting in some ways, and you put forth the oft-mentioned phases of a bubble, except I think your timing is much too early. Do you really think that 2010 was a full blown mania phase for gold? Was everybody and their shoeshine person lining up to buy gold? Was everybody running around talking about gold this and gold that? I would say definitely not. There was some media attention but hardly anything resembling a bubble. Also gold stocks hardly reached anywhere near the types of heights one would expect in a "bubble". Just saying.
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Good conversation JooJoo! Now the question is, how is "everybody and their shoeshiner" sentiment measured if not by price of gold? Perhaps there is just less street talk about gold than there have been surrounding bubbles we've seen in the past?
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JooJoo PRO glennmercer
I don't think the price of gold was remarkable in a mania-like sense in 2011, certainly neither was its little buddy silver which merely reached the same point as the previous high, that being 30 years earlier.
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I posted this a couple of weeks below. Not to sabotage the new bull rally for gold bags but for the same sake you did - to spark a conversation. The chart you see here is a half-baked idea. If you click on the chart and go into the post, there is another one, further developed, which resembles yours but with more of a technical case behind it.

What is the gold bugs are wrong in their expectations?
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pixi VirtualFax
thanks for sharing. Done a similar chart too, 5 months ago, quite the same as your
1380$ or 1550$ target
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the bubble will break..i am with u till 850$
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albertwt akhil1206
Akhil, Why do you think Gold price will be bearish all the way down to sub USD $1000 ?
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akhil1206 albertwt
61.8% retracement frm 253 to 1923 is around abt 890 ..it will be thr or thr abt....
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Thanks for sharing your work. Would starting after the "Nixon shock" be a good point to gather data? Being that it was illegal for citizens to hold gold until after around 1973 or so.
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Mike Maloney is laughing all the way to the bank
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My long-term plot is 5months old
Gold idea

Short-term speculations few weeks old
Gold is
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