pixi

Is Gold in bubble ?

FX:XAUUSD   Gold/U.S. Dollar
2410 39 68
hi,
This is not a chart for trading or to get entry/exit levels.

I remember in 2010 when newspapers/ news on television were beginning to focus on gold             price (media attention).
From this point, i tried to find if gold             have real similitudes before and after with a classic bubble. Obviously, it does.

This is theorical and not a trade plan.

Comments are really welcome but, please, avoid this kind of comments : "do it in log scale, you'll see the difference" or "The system is collapsing and gold             can't go back as low as 600$, because gold             is THE money" ;)
FreshOilTrader
2 months ago
Hello, Pixi! Excellent vision. Fully opposite for the mine (2000+ in Gold in few years). Thus very interesting who will be right here. I see you much better than I in forecasting the Gold. Just ask you to share your vision for the community if it safe to wait 1480-1520 in a few weeks or month. If your setup is correct it is a logical than Funds are going to sell higher, so 1500 level is a great area to do it. Will see. Thanks for your activity. I like your posts. All the best to you from my side. Be happy and successful!
+1 Reply
pixi FreshOilTrader
2 months ago
Thanks for your comment FreshOilTrader. Indeed, the "return to normal" should be around the previous 2011/2013 support at 1500. We'll see ;)
Reply
benzhaidang PRO
2 months ago
thanks sir. but have you consider gold is the real money it is not like paper money ? and then the bubble of the economic life cycle is on the way to drop down which cause the gold will shoot up like 2011
Reply
pixi benzhaidang
2 months ago
Sorry, but since the end of Bretton Woods in 1971, Fiat Currency (especially Dollars) is no longer backed by physical Gold. So gold is just a commodity. I think one day gold/silver will come back to the monetary scene but as long as people are confident in fiat currency, there is no reason that gold value goes up. And remember that we are trading gold paper, manipulation on upside and downside is buisness as usual.
Reply
yongmoon pixi
2 months ago
Historically all fiat currencies have collapsed so this will be no different. The question is how soon.
Reply
pixi yongmoon
2 months ago
fully agree ! The next question is : which will be the substitute ? Gold/Silver, CryptoCurrencies or both ?
+1 Reply
nottsy
2 months ago
This doesn't include inflation, QE, low rates, normal 50% retracement, that gold is money and that were and are in a recession. It looks like gold might be going down if it breaks below the 1300 levels, but I can't see it going below 1100 within the next 2-3 years.
Reply
lowstrife MOD nottsy
2 months ago
snapshot


If you adjust for inflation (using federal numbers obviously, best we have here) - we can see it did a beautiful double top from the high's a few decades before. Quite something isn't it.
+4 Reply
pixi lowstrife
a month ago
Nice chart and good comments for this idea. Thanks @lowstrife
Reply
lowstrife MOD pixi
3 days ago
@pixi, Thanks. And you had a killer idea as well. I share your chart whenever someone asks for my comment on gold, it's beautiful. Looks like things are going onward with it as well, the dollar is super strong ATM pushing it down. Too bad we'll have to wait a few years to see it turn out.
Reply
TAS TOP
2 months ago
Nice image, it shows how important it is to understand the psychology, not just price movement, nice job
+2 Reply
pixi TAS
2 months ago
thanks TAS
Reply
Gekko.uk
2 months ago
Gold is a hedge against confidence in government and money. Nothing more, nothing less. The way the geopolitical sphere is shaping, gold is an undervalued commodity. Especially if Dollar pegs fail to be sustained by emerging markets and the IMF implement SDRs which will cause gold to ROCKET to highs.
+1 Reply
pixi Gekko.uk
2 months ago
Agree, all is question about confidence in Fiat money !
+1 Reply
DAVID_GIRALDO
2 months ago
i agree. gold has made a big impulsive wave. we are currently in a weekly/monthly chart correctional pattern. we have done a good job at holding prices a bit high and are currently trading a B wave which is why market has just been ranging overall. we should get a c wave once the B completes which can take months or years since it is likely to be a very extensive b wave. depending on longevity and how high B wave tests, we can see how price has the possibility of falling. the longer price holds, the more accepted it is and it is still trading fairly high.
deffinetly a great chart you posted :)
Reply
pixi DAVID_GIRALDO
2 months ago
Thanks for your elliott wave comment ;)
Reply
wonkytonkydonky
2 months ago
the fact that many goldbugs still believe in 5000$ .. i'd say its pretty sure it will go down a lot moar :)
+1 Reply
Birgitbonander wonkytonkydonky
2 months ago
gold = limited value
fiat currency = unlimited

thus gold price -> unlimited fiat value.

Simple mathematics.
+1 Reply
Birgitbonander Birgitbonander
2 months ago
I'd say gold to 10,000 usd by 2030.
+2 Reply
wonkytonkydonky Birgitbonander
2 months ago
goldbug confirmed lol goodluck with that
+1 Reply
Gekko.uk wonkytonkydonky
2 months ago
You must be darn ignorant to believe Fiat currencies will survive in the next 15 years. I am not saying they will cease to exist but the historic cover rate of 40% will need to return. Gold will be 10,000 USD / Troy ounce when that happens.
Reply
wonkytonkydonky Gekko.uk
2 months ago
even if fiat currencies get rekt.. who sais gold will be the hedge? maybe something else will be the hedge.. because there's much more money to be made in something with lower . I don't know what gold will do All I see is alot of ppl want price of gold to go up and that often indicates it will not..
Reply
wonkytonkydonky wonkytonkydonky
2 months ago
because there's much more money to be made in something with lower * price *
Reply
albertwt Birgitbonander
2 months ago
That sounds like Jim Rickards prediction ;-)
Reply
robus
2 months ago
haha, Brilliant
Reply
eskgroup
2 months ago
Very nice analysis buddy. Thx for sharing!
Reply
albertwt
2 months ago
Many thanks for sharing the Gold prediction report chart mate !
I guess it is still not a good year to buy / accumulate gold this year based on the chart you posted.
Reply
VRShaiju
2 months ago
:) Very good outline of sentiments
Reply
JooJoo PRO
2 months ago
Interesting in some ways, and you put forth the oft-mentioned phases of a bubble, except I think your timing is much too early. Do you really think that 2010 was a full blown mania phase for gold? Was everybody and their shoeshine person lining up to buy gold? Was everybody running around talking about gold this and gold that? I would say definitely not. There was some media attention but hardly anything resembling a bubble. Also gold stocks hardly reached anywhere near the types of heights one would expect in a "bubble". Just saying.
Reply
glennmercer PRO JooJoo
2 months ago
Good conversation JooJoo! Now the question is, how is "everybody and their shoeshiner" sentiment measured if not by price of gold? Perhaps there is just less street talk about gold than there have been surrounding bubbles we've seen in the past?
Reply
JooJoo PRO glennmercer
2 months ago
I don't think the price of gold was remarkable in a mania-like sense in 2011, certainly neither was its little buddy silver which merely reached the same point as the previous high, that being 30 years earlier.
Reply
MindTrader
2 months ago
Gold
+1 Reply
VirtualFax
2 months ago
I posted this a couple of weeks below. Not to sabotage the new bull rally for gold bags but for the same sake you did - to spark a conversation. The chart you see here is a half-baked idea. If you click on the chart and go into the post, there is another one, further developed, which resembles yours but with more of a technical case behind it.

What is the gold bugs are wrong in their expectations?
Reply
pixi VirtualFax
2 months ago
thanks for sharing. Done a similar chart too, 5 months ago, quite the same as your
1380$ or 1550$ target
Reply
akhil1206
2 months ago
the bubble will break..i am with u till 850$
Reply
albertwt akhil1206
2 months ago
Akhil, Why do you think Gold price will be bearish all the way down to sub USD $1000 ?
Reply
akhil1206 albertwt
2 months ago
61.8% retracement frm 253 to 1923 is around abt 890 ..it will be thr or thr abt....
Reply
Quant
2 months ago
Thanks for sharing your work. Would starting after the "Nixon shock" be a good point to gather data? Being that it was illegal for citizens to hold gold until after around 1973 or so.
+1 Reply
Sh0t PRO
2 days ago
Mike Maloney is laughing all the way to the bank
Reply
Ideas Scripts Chart
United States
United Kingdom
India
España
Italia
Brasil
Россия
Türkiye
日本
한국
Home Stock Screener Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features House Rules Moderators For the WEB Widgets Stock Charting Library Priority Support Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Help & Wiki Twitter
Private Messages Chat Ideas Published Followers Following Priority Support Public Profile Profile Settings Billing Sign Out