As the shows direction is not decided yet... As I said on the hourly chart post gold's intermediate decline is starting
Bulls are still hoping buying every dip , posting into my posts, trying to convince me that I'm in the wrong direction.
Shorts are nervous. Taking profit after every 5$ decline... :)
WE finished the day at the level which could be a just pullback ( a testback of the breakout ).
Timewise the case is that we started the decline but it's not enough to know we have to stay in position also.
So the next 1.5 months plan is unchanged. We are heading down to the 200 in 2 steps.
But it seems to me there is one more test tomorrow at the NFP data...
We have too many shorts and maybe not enough bulls yet... So tomorrow I'm waiting for a
2015-10-28 candlestick . It's a sweeper .
First it pulls in the longs and stops out the shorts as the price almost running to new highs. But not touching the smartmoney brothers on the top where deline started. Shaky handed shorts stopping out, dumb money bulls jumping on board.
And then comes the reversal. Stopped out shorts are left behind. Bulls are on board but wrong direction. And in 2-3 days - by next Tuesday- we are down to 1235$.
So we have to get prepared for this scenario as gold pops to 1300, even 1310 is not out of the table (but I don't really think we take out the evening star's top)
The other scenario that we are just rolling over with a solid decline . But that would be too easy...
Nothing is happening...
XAUUSD is turning down soon.
It's the 6th week that blees is at 0...
Who knows what does it mean not long on the gold market.
Evreybody and his dog with his grandpa is short in gold at the commercials.
I haven't seen this number for 6 years.
As soon as stocks start to rally ( I think we had a reversal today) with the surging dollar gold will suffer a hell of a decline.
A decline from 1225 to 1075$ .
The price will rise again and hit the trend line at least once next week and that would be a good moment to sell..
On the long term, I would expect the price to continue to rise to 1350-1400 (old resistance level from July 2013 - July 2014) and settle there for a while. If it breaks it, the uptrend will continue.