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FX:XAUUSD   Gold / U.S. Dollar
2012 27 25
Today on the daily chart we had a nothing day.
As the doji shows direction is not decided yet... As I said on the hourly chart post gold's intermediate decline is starting
Bulls are still hoping buying every dip , posting into my posts, trying to convince me that I'm in the wrong direction.
Shorts are nervous. Taking profit after every 5$ decline... :)
WE finished the day at the level which could be a just pullback ( a testback of the breakout ).
Timewise the case is that we started the decline but it's not enough to know we have to stay in position also.

So the next 1.5 months plan is unchanged. We are heading down to the 200 EMA in 2 steps.

But it seems to me there is one more test tomorrow at the NFP data...
We have too many shorts and maybe not enough bulls yet... So tomorrow I'm waiting for a
2015-10-28 candlestick . It's a sweeper candlestick .
First it pulls in the longs and stops out the shorts as the price almost running to new highs. But not touching the smartmoney brothers on the top where deline started. Shaky handed shorts stopping out, dumb money bulls jumping on board.
And then comes the reversal. Stopped out shorts are left behind. Bulls are on board but wrong direction. And in 2-3 days - by next Tuesday- we are down to 1235$.

So we have to get prepared for this scenario as gold             pops to 1300, even 1310 is not out of the table (but I don't really think we take out the evening star's top)

The other scenario that we are just rolling over with a solid decline . But that would be too easy...
Comment: Unbelievable that the whole world is waiting for a number.
Nothing is happening...
Comment: Selling 50 XAUUSD in the metal trade at 1291.31
Comment: Retail traders are taking up smartmoney's gold positions.
Comment: SMartmoney selling dumb money buying. Watch dollar !
XAUUSD is turning down soon.
Comment: 411,545 commercial short contracts and Blees rating 0 .
It's the 6th week that blees is at 0...
Who knows what does it mean not long on the gold market.
Evreybody and his dog with his grandpa is short in gold at the commercials.
I haven't seen this number for 6 years.
As soon as stocks start to rally ( I think we had a reversal today) with the surging dollar gold will suffer a hell of a decline.
Comment: 6 years ago gold dropped 150 dollars in 2 weeks with these numbers.
Comment: In the back is the dollar index. The buck was coming out of the lows...
A decline from 1225 to 1075$ .

There is no reason to think that long term bull market is over, by the way it has just started. We are on the begining of a new cycle, similar to the last one that peaked in 2011. Smart money already positioned before reaching 1200 (look at volumes) and they'll be holding long.
Commercials holding 355.000 short position
+1 Reply
nice analysis, this is why I wont have a trade going when Yellen speaks or the NFWP report comes out....cos I got stung before ...its a coin toss.
Do you think if ti comes to 1300 it is smart to encrease Dust position?
this is frustrating. I closed my buy positions lossing on gold and look what gold did.
I closed to avoid margin call. I have not a big account.
Price action to NFP similar to preliminary report a few days ago. Gold popped to right about these levels here 1290, the miss was about the same. Does it hold and push up or reverse like it did a few days ago? My hunch is that price action repeats itself.
Just wonderful prediction :) my Setup was short @1294 cause of your advice with a sl around 1320. Closed all other shorts last night so i just had a perfect entry
I assume the 355,000 shorts hedges against a good long position. Wished I had 1x GLD long to cover the loss on DUST during this change.
nexuz AlphaDreams

seems like a double top in the hourly and a trendline testback
+1 Reply
We need the stocks to start the rally to the new highs and money will flow out from the PM sector into the SM.
We are not able to run out of buyers.
+1 Reply
vchelimella chartwatchers
Do you see a reversal today for Gold to the downside ?
nexuz chartwatchers
hmm well spx and dax seem to turn around in the daily charts. im a bit concerned about dxy daily candle - weekly looks good but daily seems to bounce back. if i remember right you said in one of your charts that DXY is very important and every trader should watch it every day. When i count that into my plan im kinda worried that i should close my short before market close today
After what has happened in the markets over the last few days, do you see gold at 1190 by May 13th?
1150-60 is not out of the table by end of May middle of June.
Timing is hard here.
+1 Reply
Such analisis is for sell in a long term trade right?
chartwatchers PRO alanprotrader
It's for a sell.
Why these information is important to sell or buy Gold? What is that mean?
chartwatchers PRO alanprotrader
Commercials in the long term are always in the good direction...
They are short for a while.
Chartwatchers - You're the man! We are well positioned on this one. By the way, I do think I experienced the gold drop 6 years ago. It was the drop from around 1400 to 12 something right? I recall october or november sometime... just before the big run to the peak?
I think they hedge funds are trying to make a buck by churning between the Dow and Gold.
I think gold will hit $1310 - $1320 by next week. Also the daily RSI almost hitting the over bought territory. I will take the trade when RSI will overbought at 77 to 80. Also waiting for another drag down before fed meeting. I am 80% sure Fed will not raise the interest rate on next meeting. Probably gold will hit almost $1400 by July second week. I am just little concern about my DUST position. It actually working in a reverse trend. I am hoping it will come back to good shape very soon.
1310-20 is not out of the table...
But with the rallying dollar and soaring stock market it will be really hard for gold to run to new highs.
Money will flow out of the PM sector in the following 1.5 months.
1400$ is a little early by July , but for september we will be there.
Royal_Marq chartwatchers
Probably you right. How about DUST? Because I am not getting how it's movement really works.
Very Insightful.
U like a litte child.. Us dollar will be dumb... Nfp bad for usd// then we see bullish cndlestik @D1.. U know wht happened? It would be break out 1300.. No hike rate by the year
chartwatchers PRO Sakakikunmakio
The dollar was rallying after the NFP. Rally on bad news.
Google the meaning of it.
I'm new to this, but fully agree with BetaIndex.
The price will rise again and hit the trend line at least once next week and that would be a good moment to sell..
On the long term, I would expect the price to continue to rise to 1350-1400 (old resistance level from July 2013 - July 2014) and settle there for a while. If it breaks it, the uptrend will continue.
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