chartwatchers
Long

GOLD - Buying with Draghi

FX:XAUUSD   Gold / U.S. Dollar
11191 182 110
The ECB press conference starting in 15 minutes.
I'm still convinced Draghi will try to weaken the Euro             .
SO at his speech I will try to add to my gold             positions , DXY             shorts and EurUsd             longs.
It could be a good possibility for those who left at the station to buysome gold             or Euro             during the volatile session of Draghi's speech.
Comment: 1343 and 1337 are the 2 levels I'M BUYING
Comment: Spike is coming at the end of the speech.
As usual. Draghi is not changing.
Comment: The dollar seems to breaking the trendline.
Dont wait for gold to tag 1337
Comment: Have to pick the position or you will be left at the station
Comment: ECB is intervening.
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Comment: Trying to save the dollar from the breakdown.
They should have done it at the 200 SMA. They are too late.
EVen if Draghi imports chinese Euro printing machines the dollar will break down.
Comment: I don't see anything wrong in gold right now.
We are on day 5. Very early in the daily cycle.
Powerful first 4 days. And now we are in the flag.
Just a guess but I think we will break out of the flag tonight or Sunday night (GMT)
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Comment: 100 EMA tag.
Time to turn up.
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Comment: So I finished buying gold:
1337$ and 1443$.
I'm in full position again.
We just have to wait for the dollar to break down.
Comment: It's going to be a 100$ move to th upside so all the indicators and chart patterns what the bears are using not going to work. Smartmoney will not let retail to be in a move like this.
Comment: We are under the strong dollar's pressure again
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Comment: Market is completely messed up. Gold, oil, stocks falling together.
And now the dollar also.
We need a cleaner picture. And bears pls don't start to post that you knew this. You are just gambling: Red or black.
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Comment: This is the new world of printing presses.
Everything will be worthless in this inflation except precious metals.
Comment: And here is our descending wedge before breaking to the upside.
It's suffering at every lower low.
Divergencies everywhere.
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Hi Arpi, why long Eur if you think Mario will weaken it??
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Because he can weaken it only for a short time.
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not much of an upside from here, you will wait for a leg down?
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It is ticking down off of every word
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Spike is coming at the end of the speech
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rudykorinek chartwatchers
Spike
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webmiztriz PRO chartwatchers
HOTT ;)
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Nightstar webmiztriz
Lol! You're funny.
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*smirk ... he's so smart .. it's pretty amazing...
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Hello Arpi, what is your target to TP on Gold, I am sure it will go back down again right?
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1450?
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What time does his speech end US time?
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Ended. http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2016/09/08/ecb-live-blog-what-does-draghi-have-in-store-for-bond-buying-program/
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looks like that was it for the spike, I was hoping for 1337
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can i buy gold??
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Seems the USD don't want to have its trendline broken. What is it so afraid of? :)
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Chart, what would need to happen in this case to make you change your mind, and reverse the position? I think that would help many followers answer the dilemma they have when blindly following calls.

Best,

Y
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If we don't break to new highs (above 1376) in the next 3 weeks I will get out of my gold longs.
I give 1% to this no-new-highs scenario.
Dont wait for smartmoney to give you a clear entry point for gold.
It will be a night breakout.
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andrej123456 chartwatchers
I am thinking about taking profit from my short and then opening a long position, but its not clear to me what ''smartmoney'' exactly are ? What it means ?
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Ok - I'm in NUGT a small amount.
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another dip to buy?
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Thanks Arpi! :)
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Am I hearing an underlying tone of hesitation now?
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1332.85 is the key :)
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I am glad i have hedgeg my long again as I have done before, I will take profit of my short after this downward move and then hold long, gold looks weak to me right now.
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was waiting for your comments, if it keeps on falling where should we hedge our position ? I have open position at 1343
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Arpi, could you comment FNATGAS? Today we have a big move up!
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I've set my stop loss below yesterday's low.
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ArtFly chartwatchers
Thank you. I did it the same;-)
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Ok - I hit your two buy points with you. Let's get a good bounce off the 100EMA on the hourly.
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Cheers Arpi, I've added at 1337 too
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Man you bought too early , already touched 1335
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The bottom was 1335.57.
That means you could have bought at 1335.57+0.6=1336.17
I was buying 1337$.
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LyubaTsenkova BjornPfaff
bjooooorn
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shinsky BjornPfaff
The worst is someone from the peanut gallery. They can always say something in hindsight but never have the balls to make a call.

I would love to see you make a call and see where "price action" goes.
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shinsky BjornPfaff
We've already seen what you are saying... and would probably lose our shirts if we were to following you.

I know all of chartwatchesr followers know to ignore you... Now we can see why we will continue to ignore you. All because of a 5k loss. Poor you :(
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dali77 PRO BjornPfaff
Dude.. I lost 20 k following his prebrexit short,so I don't follow his Bollywood headlines anymore since the guy is delusional when it come to macroeconomics, that being said his technical is analysis is good sometimes.
so you take what is good and you ignore his passionate conspiracy theories and you will be fine.
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And how much did you win with me?
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toothless BjornPfaff
Yet you always seem to be back on here reading his work, but never once being appreciative.
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lluriel BjornPfaff
I'm sorry that you lost 5k, but nobody forces you to make a decision for trading. Arpi is sharing his idea and YOU are the one making a call. you can't blame someone else for the consequences you've made.
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Hi, what you think, will it go to up or it's turn to down?
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So as your plan, did you buy gold at 1337?
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I bought at 1343 and 1337.
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watsonzou26 chartwatchers
Thanks for your updating, master.
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Annette BjornPfaff
You are free to publish your own charts as anyonelse without judging others ;)
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After today I think my earlier suspicion is materializing about DXY. Just looking at the chart. We've got key reversal today in form of hammer. Tomorrow most likely it will go up, even if eventually goes down.
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lefevrenathan27 pbartashevich
looks good for a buy. I like your analysis in regards to the hammer. Could hit 1327.50 before reversal worst case scenario.
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Dorraa lefevrenathan27
May I ask you why this level in specific?
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Going long at $1337, good luck everyone.
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Gold/Silver ratio suggests one more down day.
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chartwatchers PRO pbartashevich
Or silver could go up first and gold will follow...
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Big divergences on opinions on this point in time for gold. Nice resistance here around 1337. Plenty of time for each to make up their mind. I'm in, and will double-down if down tomorrow. Good luck everyone!
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Big money always shakes out the weak hands and make them chase later.

We just saw it with oil and nat gas.

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agreed indicators are not gonna work in this market...cant wait to see this ride
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BjornPfaff marketplaceguy
haha technicalls always work friend i trade gold for 5 years now ...
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Looks like there is no buying pressure , how would that come huh ? guess what .. one more leg down !
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We have a lot of margin from oil's a NatGas' upside surprise.
So will sleep well with gold long positions.
If you buy 50 XAU today by the end of September your 5k is back.
So don't tell from now I didn't help to get it back.
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-Andrew- PRO chartwatchers
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Bought Gold at at Good Price @ 1336.54 for my second entry, First at 1306.81. Being cradled by the 200MA on 4Hr. My account can handle it even if this falls below 1300. Thanks Arpi - appreciate your work mate
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BjornPfaff chartwatchers
hmm ... 1335 .my friend. going to break to the downside. Hope you have anougj margin left.
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-Andrew- PRO BjornPfaff
Will sleep well as I've shorted SPX
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nice call on dollars boost
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Big money knows the dollar is screwed. They are keeping it up to get out of their longs. It will collapse, only a matter of time.
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traderzaius traderzaius
The next drop is going to be big.
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Hi Arpi why you are saying the next move is about 100$? and where do i put the stop loss?
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AntonBilan BjornPfaff
So you are in short already? )))
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BjornPfaff AntonBilan
im in a short from 1345
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Dorraa BjornPfaff
Do you have a group for sharing your trades?
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marketplaceguy BjornPfaff
dude i trade on technical analysis most of the time it works too & i dont see any published idea on ur page so first publish something if u know technical indicators lol
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Annette BjornPfaff
You tried to profit from him you lost. Did you tried to profit also from my chart about Sound Energy that almost double? Good for you we are here to share ;) I don't say that CW is 100% right and it won't be any slip on gold, but I admire the passion because help me to improve and learn, from my mistake and from the mistake of others. Your opinion would be more costructive if supported by a own developed strategy: are you short? Publish your analysis. Suicide? If turn to 1300 from 1335 isn't a suicide but a drop easy to manage with call. Try again is never late to improve your communication skills ;)
+4 Reply
We let you trade these 1$ breakdowns on the 1 minute chart. :) We want the big fish who is eating bear-snacks.
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marketplaceguy chartwatchers
agreed man we want the big fish who is eating bear snacks
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Glad to see ure back arpi. Ill wait at 1332 and 1327. I dont want to rush since ive long at 1280 and 1305
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1328 , 1313 here we come !!
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I also have short position 1354. Im going to take partial profit when us open
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AKIN007 BjornPfaff
Time Always show what is True/False.... Why r u.......So....Excited.... in trading anyone buy & Anyone Sell and Both r Profit and same case both r in Loos...
But main is when buy when sell.....................................................................................................................................................
It may be timing game...............................................................................................................................................................
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thx for sharing.
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mrtommifunn PRO mrtommifunn
This is the dollar...... (lol just in case some think its the gold)
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Chartwatcher is doing a good job.. I have posted just two charts to show why gold will go up, but there are a ton of reasons. If you have bought gold anytime ithe last three weeks to go long and have already lost your money then you are trading completely wrong and have terrible money management. I'm not going to help educate anyone on their money management as i have my own to look after. But what i can say is yes sometimes chartwatcher jumps into trades a little early , but they do go the right way (most of the time and we cannot be 100% right all the time). If anyone disagrees and thinks gold is bearish (i'm talking about going below 1300) then please show charts and evidence why you think that.
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Hi Arpi,

thank you again for your analisys,,,!!
Apart from technical indicators,,,,you help people to open their mind and try to think,,,we are here to SHARE IDEAS,,,

Regards
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Arpi is doing a great job and is certainly nice enough to share. What you do with his amazing analysis, is totally dependent on you. For eg, if you make emotional decisions with his Analysis like trading short term, instead of long, you may lose. But he shouldn't be the one to blame for that
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T-1); lets see where Rosengrens speech will send us...
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Adding to my longs now... stopp @ 1320..
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Taking profit of my short right now and going long.
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Bear market in gold. LOL.
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andrej123456 chartwatchers
Hi chart. As I wrote above. When and where do you suggest the gold will rally ? I am already long I want to know some take profit suggestion. Thank you :)
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danbar chartwatchers
I am in NUGT down 10% today. What do you recommend? I did the trade based on your recent gold analysis. I appreciate a quick reply. Thank you for all your work.
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My long 1332 activate
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any thoughts on $NUGT, seems to be taking more a beating than $XAU
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I am noticing as well.
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Glad you've took the buy! Hope you and your followers of this idea used a stop.

Tomorrow we will see a chart with a heroic speech saying gold will crumble down to 1120 again repackaged in another heroic chart that is blurred by 27 moving averages?

Sorry for being not nice but for someone that is so reputated on this forum you should bring things with less confidence.

You always say things WILL happen and novice traders believe you. When a trade goes wrong you just post a chart in the opposite direction.

1310/1322 would be a much safer place, but you take trades without even watching the price action but blindly make calls at these levels you've recently posted. Analysis from a 60 minute TF? please give me a break.

Have a nice weekend, dont mean to really offend you.
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Don't have to wait for tomorrow I will update today.
I'm not flip-floping. I'M long for a long time.
But please post here one chart where I changed the direction and that one not worked.
Thank you in the name of my followers , but though you bought a PRO account you are still novice.
Most of my followers are not novice.
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Deuce888 PRO chartwatchers
Apri always give logical explanations for his views. The guy knows his stuff and I guarantee if you just click and play his every move you will be yielding a good return. Keep up the good work mate!
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ja.piotr.bor chartwatchers
One trade with gold didn't worked out in may/june when you shorted at it ramped up till 1290-1300, from 1240.
And then you changed the direction, or stopped position. But most of the time you are right Arpi.
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traderzaius JohnQuid
He's trading cycles and its clear thru cycles analysis that we are going up. The entries are not perfect because that is not what cycles are for. They are for making alot of money, not chump change day trading money.
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investment6300 traderzaius
Well put! Swing trading or cycles and think you doing a short term is very different plan as you will learn. Gold is very tricky as all know so being able to read the market on many occasions is better than most. Trading is the risk trying to accomodate risk to the best. Getting excited and emosional is what we try to contain short or long term.
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Miners and the dollar tagged their 10 day. Nothing unusual here
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Finally someone is using his brain.
Thanks hlavaty.
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JohnQuid PRO chartwatchers
Could be novice ye
XAUUSD JUST MY 2CENTS // FIRST SHORT THEN LONG


1 chart, 2 months old. so far in the bag. didnt mean to make you feel offended but obviously you are. If this trade goes the right way it would be perfect for you and the rest, did i said you were dumb and always wrong? No.
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Nice explanation under the chart. Good decision you went for chartist and not a novel writer.
YOu have a chance not going to bankrupt.
Fashion business is still there for you LOL.
You were right it can go up or down. Or range.
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Hi Arpi, thanks for your generosity in sharing your work. I guess we followers need to appreciate the passion and strong conviction you have, right or wrong to follow your call? I guess sensible adults need to assess their own risk tolerance and make judgement accordingly. Making a fundamental call is easy, but catching the right timing down to the exact minute never an easy task, shall I say almost impossible?
Thank you very much Sir!
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i'm not saying that he is wrong. Yes. Gold is in a bullmarket and i'm not suprised we will make higher highs at the end of this year. But just to let you know what i'm reffering to is lines like these.


"We are going to top in this daily cycle in 12-14 days from now. So I think this is the last entry point in this daily cycle to catch some money of the rally. The next entry point will be only the daily cycle low.
So all who wants to enter this is the point . It is a gift. Take it." Price above is 47.35 or so. Two days later you see 43. that is a 400 pip move. So either way you are expecting everyone that one can risk 500$ on 1 contract. if you can do so. Great, but most of the ppl around here simply cant put that much at stake ? Guess you have deep pockets or bad credit much? "This pullback will be the chance of the shorts to ease the pain and get back the lost money with longs.
Don't ruin this opportunity we might never see 45-46$ oil -3.65% again... " 42.90 hit and now hovering for another retracement short.

DXY 18 days ago: "All my bets on the trendline break and the test of the bottom of the range and the 23.06. daily cycle low at 93.

It's going to be awesome." 4 days later DXY moves 215 pips long.

This pullback will be the chance of the shorts to ease the pain and get back the lost money with longs.
Don't ruin this opportunity we might never see 45-46$ oil -3.65% again... Untill today.

S&P will reach 2200/2400 and you all will be beartrapped blabla.

I dont trade most of the instruments that Arpi posts except for gold and oil and i dont want to be some guy that blames ppl for doing much for the community but you could atleast be less convinced about what will happen.

Not really outstanding or worth mentioning to call the bottom of oil on a 13/18 year low. Thats like the same saying the pound will rise a bit post brexit.

Happy trading and i hope everyone will be in profit bear or bull short or longterm.
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NihalCassim JohnQuid
Wow, you really dug up where he went wrong! I'm sure there are equally great wins. Many of the ones you pointed did eventually reverse. I've been stuck wrong on Arpis calls but he inspires conviction and most eventually win. All I'm saying is that one should consider his view while taking a position, at least as a second opinion.
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JohnQuid PRO NihalCassim
I'm not saying he is a bad trader at all his analysis are strong most of the times but its the way of presentation, i didnt even look up all these charts only the first 8 or so.

And now he's making fun of me because he's insulted and someone is giving him alternative feedback instead of "Oh thank you Arpi you are an absolute tradinggod you should start a hedgefund"? and sure if you are so absolutely sure where price will go you dont have to think about exact entrypoints you could long and short almost wherever the hell you want but for a retailtrader that does matter ALOT considering almost everyone here trades on leverage.
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Gold is still very strong, it hasn't dropped as much, compared to oil. even when USD has gone up so much. Surely, people are buying
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Calm down people! A correction in Gold and Miners will fuel the next leg up.. That's how Markets work :) Focus on the big picture and stop freaking out every time Gold doesn't do what you want it to do, Lol!
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ur funny ;)
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Nightstar webmiztriz
Damn it I AM funny! And smart.. and kinda yummy ;) #flirting
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traderzaius Nightstar
EXACTLY !!!
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Please don't yell at me as I'm pretty novice here and I'm absolutely not trying to sell my opinion. I believe I see the following two potential scenarios but can't find strong enough arguments in favour of one over the other. So, this is up for a debate if anyone is even interested in debating my silly attempts to forecast gold:

Bullish

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Bearish

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bertcoin PRO VirtualFax
Thanks for sharing this VirtualFax! I'll take your first chart. I trust a really big triangle pattern (consolidation or coiling spring) as a fundamental more than a H&S. Either could prove correct, especially in the short run. IMHO, the H&S isn't an H&S until it breaks and holds below the neckline. I'm betting on the first chart in an overall bull run because I'm thinking a little longer term...
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Hello Bert I was thinking until the end of September how about you in respect to timeframe?
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bertcoin PRO AaronSwan
As near to the Half cycle high as I can be. (See Arpi's other gold ideas). I think he said we're due for an ICL at the end of this daily cycle which may be a little left translated. So near the HCH, I'll be switching from NUGT to DUST until the ICL. I'm hoping to catch both sides of this.
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albertwt VirtualFax
Do you think after the 8th November 2016 USA election result, Gold might be lower ?
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What fantastic analysis on this thumbs up....Great job!
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I have bought my metals position back today. Still have dry powder.
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AaronSwan PRO pbartashevich
What are your targets Pbartashevich?
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I am a bull making long term position. My target is to break this big triangle upward and will see how the price behaves. I believe it will be way over 1400. But depends on the price right before FOMC (how much fat I will have). I might reduce my position or keep as is. Also I will not commit all money before FOMC. That is suicidal to my opinion :).
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Completely agree!
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Debt fueled currency wars. When the chickens come home to roost, they'll make another movie like The Big Short.
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