Gold partially regained its losses; NFP rep. lower than expected
Gold partially regained its losses; NFP report lower than expected
3rd-7th January comments
As I predicted during my last weeks commentary on Gold Spot, US Non-farm Payrolls, the report which measures the number of people employed during the previous month, excluding the farming industry, showed numbers lower than expected (actual 199K; expected 400K), which was bearish for DX, trading -0,52% on Fridays session.
In a normal market time, this would add a huge buying pressure on Gold, but due to the irregular market movements and mixed signals on the correlating assets for Gold at the moment (high selling pressure on Gold as the 10-year Treasury yield went from 1.53% to 1.75% during the last week, reaching January 2020 highs of 1.79%), the Gold only partially regained its last week's losses, trading at 1.796,63, not being able to breach the 1.800,90 psychological resistance.
Fundamental events and predictions for 10th-14th January 2022
Regarding fundamental events for the upcoming week, the four most important events are:
3rd-7th January comments
As I predicted during my last weeks commentary on Gold Spot, US Non-farm Payrolls, the report which measures the number of people employed during the previous month, excluding the farming industry, showed numbers lower than expected (actual 199K; expected 400K), which was bearish for DX, trading -0,52% on Fridays session.
In a normal market time, this would add a huge buying pressure on Gold, but due to the irregular market movements and mixed signals on the correlating assets for Gold at the moment (high selling pressure on Gold as the 10-year Treasury yield went from 1.53% to 1.75% during the last week, reaching January 2020 highs of 1.79%), the Gold only partially regained its last week's losses, trading at 1.796,63, not being able to breach the 1.800,90 psychological resistance.
Fundamental events and predictions for 10th-14th January 2022
Regarding fundamental events for the upcoming week, the four most important events are:
- Fed chair Powell testimony- which could provide us with more information on faster interest rate hikes and asset tapering;
- CPI report- that I think will be higher than expected (0,4%) as high levels of inflation are clearly visible. The labour market is improving as the unemployment rate for December 2021 fell to 3,9%, meeting the Fed’s target for maximum employment. This is good sign/base for previously announced faster rate hikes.
The last three CPI reports (10th of October, 10th of November and 12th of December) were higher that expected and due to the fact that Gold traded with huge gains, I personally think this will be the case once again, as Gold traditionally has been touted as a hedge against inflation.
- Initial jobless claims- this report should show positive sign of economics recovery and
- Retail Sales- measures consumers spending.
Considering all I have written above, the upcoming fundamental events and the fact that the weekly's chart candle failed to close below the 1.782,90 support, I still see the space for the Gold to recover its losses, pursuing the h4 1st resistance of 1.807,90 and finally the strong resistance of 1.832,90.
I will engage buying order only if fundamental events and correlating assets trade in my favour and if Gold breaks the 1.807,90.
