chartwatchers
Short

GOLD - Sell the news 2 (Weekly)

FX:XAUUSD   Gold/U.S. Dollar
3774 44 51
4 months ago
After the good job data on Friday gold             was still able to recover. It shows us how bullish everybody on gold             ...
Traders are buying every dip. We rallied 6 weeks continuously.
It's time for a decline to the daily cycle low.

What could trigger a daily cycle low in this bullish sentiment?
FOMC on 27th of July.
After this strong job data nothing stands in the way of the FED for a rate hike.
Actually that is their last chance before the elections. Everything is ready for that:
stocks are all time highs, the Brexit vote is done... Yellen will come out next week to prepare the market for 27th July.

The question is the next: will gold             test the 1390-1400 ( target price counted from the pennant) or not. 1390$ also the the 2014 March intermediate high.
It's hard to imagine we can continue this rally without a DCL.
4 months ago
Comment: The possible DCL could occur at the 10 EMA (or 200 MA) on the weekly chart.
4 months ago
Comment: Hanging man candlestick on the daily chart.
snapshot

Forming after an advance, a hanging man signals that selling pressure is starting to increase. The low of the long lower shadow confirms that sellers pushed prices lower during the session. Even though the bulls regained their footing and drove prices higher by the finish, the appearance of selling pressure is there on high volume. On Monday we need bearish confirmation. The best would be a red candlestick on heavy volume without breaking Friday's daily high.
Though we might get a test of 1390-1400 $ first in the Asian session before the decline .
4 months ago
Comment: The question is did we have the cycle top on day 27 or we are going to have it on Monday at day 30?
4 months ago
Comment: Gold soar on the strong data was a perfect opportunity for banks to sell their miner shares on high volume. I wouldn't be surprised on a gap down on Monday in GDX.
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4 months ago
Comment: One more interesting thing: Gold and gold miners...
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4 months ago
Comment: Gold rally on low volume. Miners were trading near record volume.
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4 months ago
Comment: We are forming an hourly range.
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4 months ago
Comment: It looks moere and more to me that we are in a range.
As today the dollar seems to be starting its decline gold will be tough to fall...
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4 months ago
Comment: So far so good.
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4 months ago
Comment: My red candle is covered by the real candle.
:)
4 months ago
Comment: My second red candle is covered by this week candle.
Press play...
Mannnassser
4 months ago
What happened yesterday indicates that gold is up ... to cover from 1234 up to 1370 with minutes is a case to studied well. Maybe technical analysis should take into their consideration the elements supporting gold's uptrend rather than looking for elements pushing the price down. Thanks Sir.
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Mannnassser
4 months ago
1334 to 1370
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pmcllc PRO
4 months ago
I've notice that the Asian session drove the prices higher in the last few weeks, followed by the European session.
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junp2010
4 months ago
HI chart, your gold post help me a lot. Now I share my knowledge as well. as I count gold is in wave 5 from Friday after job data. wave 3 is 61 dollars, which mean wave5 should be less than that. wave 4 bottom at 1336, so wave 5 top is no more than 1397.
+1 Reply
chartwatchers PRO junp2010
4 months ago
SO most probably we have 1-2 more days before the decline starts
+1 Reply
junp2010 chartwatchers
4 months ago
If Monday Asia market go up quickly, it is topping most likely.
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pmcllc PRO junp2010
4 months ago
i thought wave 5 completed at 1377
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junp2010 pmcllc
4 months ago
same channel top, count wave 3.
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verlin03
4 months ago
Hi chartwatchers. Deep down you want to buy but want a better entry so you are selling. Think about it
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chartwatchers PRO verlin03
4 months ago
No. I will buy at the DCL. I bought the breakout from the pennant and got out at 1263.
I'M not going to chase the price this late in the daily cycle with the overbought miners.
I also saw 1 minute before - check my BIGCAPITAL post at Bear flag or double top - NFP that gold is going down.
But the rally up from 1340 to 1370$ on low volume was not a predictable story.
Because it was an artificial move.

I say that even if we have a pop on Monday in gold the miners will open with a gap (a down gap!) at USA session.
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Mannnassser
4 months ago
By the way ... i am new into this .. what do you mean by miners? Plz
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xukaitan888 Mannnassser
4 months ago
gold miners, which is related to gold price. check his old post first.
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USSRandolph xukaitan888
4 months ago
The above answer was not clear, the term "miners" refers to gold mining company stocks, or miners of other materials such as silver, platinum, etc. sometimes miners of other materials such as iron are included.
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chartwatchers PRO USSRandolph
4 months ago
Gold and silver mining companies. Precious metal sector
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Mannnassser chartwatchers
4 months ago
Thanks
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shoks786
4 months ago
I read your comment before the nfp report came out, you predicted it would be a good number befor it was released, how was you able to tell? hast off!
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shoks786
4 months ago
hats off!!
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I am still a Brear :). Here is my positive bearish thoughts:

Good jobs report clearly points that rate hike in July will be on the table this month. If we have a rise in Gold price next week it will not pass Friday July 15. Very big data day: GDP China, CPI EU, CPI US - I suspect it will also be good, I mean pro-rate hike. Same reason that Gold will have wait for that date consolidate but not drop big time - giving time to offload miners shares. They need time to do that - 4 days should be enough. If Friday data confirmed to be good we will have 2 weeks of decline and consolidation in Gold until July 29 because media will go nuts about rate hike. That would our DCL. No hike - too much uncertainty - gold goes up after. This DCL should be deep enough to have some room going north.

"Britain will have a new prime minister by 2 September, after the executive of the Conservative party’s backbench 1922 Committee set a TIGHTER than expected timetable for selecting a new leader." - Why tighter? - FOMC meeting on Sept 20-21. Last chance to influence US election. I believe they need one hike before election to be able to state that US economy is doing great and there is no need to "Make this country great again." :). S&P will be posting new highs, so they can hike in Sept safely. Gold goes down to next ICL after.

I believe nobody wants gold to go up much further. It should have fallen at Brexit "remain" vote. Didn't happened - now crisis management unfolding - so far successful.

ps: 1380 is 0.38 fib retracement in bear market :)
+3 Reply
isaac312 PRO pbartashevich
4 months ago
No hike after Brexit

Uk cut rate
Eu more Qe
Italy default risk - bail out or bail in
Greece default risk payment due 7.20. No payment -grexit. Much impact than brexit
Jp QE
Ch cute reserve ratio
Strong dollar push risk on emergin debt expense

Fed knows something happen In EU that they should not touch rate.

Macro is not that simple mate. Job? Not a good quality mate. Ignoring June? Cz of July? This is a example of human mind is very obligated with something new :) CH is slowingdown. Look at their exodus, CPI, PPI, import, export, current account. Lol
CPI in EU will be better? :)
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danot
4 months ago
No rate hike. I keep trying to move from NUGT to DUST and back again the only real money and I mean real money I make is on the long side of the trade. I underestimate the power of this bull market as most of you.
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danot
4 months ago
This bull started before BREXIT was ever in the news and is only a spoke in a much bigger wheel. Most of the world is in a big damn economic mess and that is what is driving this market overall. Overvalued miners ? By whose definition ? Given the huge decline in the shares the past five years the market seems to think they are a buy and the market has the only opinion that counts not you or me. There will be profit taking from time to time use that time to go short or sell as near a top as you can and buy back lower. A smart trader makes it both ways and only a fool refuses to listen to the market. It taught me a lesson.
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jangseohee
4 months ago
weekly seems to have a target at 1440 for blown off top
snapshot

lets see how that wedge tip reacts

snapshot
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TraderTroopa
4 months ago
I have entered a short last thursday to counter trend after seeing a spinning top. My exposure is still open (losing position) and planning to do to hold or exit on Monday close whatever price action confirms it. I'm skeptical on your analysis that it is a hanging man and you are bearish...it seems to be a bullish pin bar to me and friday's action confirms it still on uptrend momentum
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pbartashevich PRO TraderTroopa
4 months ago
Next week it may go down or shoot up to $1380-$1400 ish but we still go down after until FOMC meeting. This supper good jobs report was for a reason. We will see $1306 in coming weeks so you may keep your position and have profit. If I am right of course :). It is never sure thing.
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Bulls are so certain this days that Gold goes only up. I see a real bear case here. Fed could not have a better conditions to hike rate than now. I was listening Yellens testimony after bad jobs data - she wants to hike rates and she even explained why. Gold going up is a sign of inflation for the Fed, not Core CPI which they control.

Oh just got an idea, what if UK link the activation of article 50 to economic conditions? That would mean self-stabilization.
What if Kuroda will come out and say: you know what, negative interest rate did not work, we will try something else.

I mean there is plenty of ways to stop Gold. Just watch what they say and do. If Friday's is pro-rate hike I am shorting Gold all-in.
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xiiimik
4 months ago
Hourly range- what does it mean?
Thanks
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USSRandolph xiiimik
4 months ago
I would like to know that too
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USSRandolph USSRandolph
4 months ago
The only possibility I can figure out his spikes in volume
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chartwatchers PRO USSRandolph
4 months ago
posted
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bertcoin PRO xiiimik
4 months ago
This _might_ be a beginners guide to hourly range.... https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/education/trading_tips/daily_trading_lesson/2012/04/23/How_to_Trade_Ranges_with_Price_Action.html... But I'm not for sure that's what Arpi is referring to.
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pbartashevich PRO bertcoin
4 months ago
A range between two parallel red lines on last hourly chart. Bouncing between them.
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USSRandolph pbartashevich
4 months ago
Thanks for the guidance. Re this example, on an hourly chart, looking at 24 hour periods, there is a price range of between 1350 and 1375. In a 24 hour period either one of those price limits are hit. I do not understand the significance of that ex to say that some predictability is seen. The overall importance of that, or what action that may call for is uncertain to me, ex that one might use it as a buy or selling point according to his or her individual needs. Any comments would be appreciated.
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albium
4 months ago
so does that mean that good for shorts we are still heading towards 1300 this week?
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chartwatchers PRO albium
4 months ago
The weak dollar is not good for the shorts.
I just posted the range that it seems we might pop up to the top of the range (1375$).
Maybe a marginal breakout to 1400...
But sooner or later we will go to the DCL...
+1 Reply
pbartashevich PRO chartwatchers
4 months ago
Hi Arpi, I am not sure that dollar will be weak. It is forming ascending triangle from Brexit with 200 SMA on top and 50EMA/SMA at the bottom. That should resolve upward. Fundamentally, the appetite for save heaven has been greatly reduced. That maybe pushing downward pressure on dollar but even more downward pressure on Gold. Nikkei (NKY) broke its downtrend line today with gap, so Yen should fall. I think NKY had it ICL, Bond yields reversed from their lows and going higher.
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chartwatchers PRO pbartashevich
4 months ago
Could you post your triangle?
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pbartashevich PRO chartwatchers
4 months ago
Here:
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Double top at $1375? I think going below $1335 will make it official.
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It is already key reversal (engulfing) on weekly chart on Tuesday... If gold wants to survive it should run back up within 3 days. I doubt that will happen.
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val_trader
4 months ago
I'm with you in the Short, thanks!
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All my DUST allocated money are in play. The question is now will $1300 stop it or it will fall further? I can't get rid of idea that they will talk rate hikes next two weeks and therefore gold should keep falling/consolidating all this time.
+1 Reply
That Barrik (ABX) liquidation.. That one supposed to be last to fall.
+1 Reply
Tosharun
4 months ago
I pressed the play and that's exactly the size of red candle!!! you are legend!!
Cheers!!
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toothless
4 months ago
THANK YOU! Enjoy watching your play unfold.
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