chartwatchers
Short

GOLD - Sell the news 2 (Weekly)

FX:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
3804 44 53
After the good job data on Friday gold             was still able to recover. It shows us how bullish everybody on gold             ...
Traders are buying every dip. We rallied 6 weeks continuously.
It's time for a decline to the daily cycle low.

What could trigger a daily cycle low in this bullish sentiment?
FOMC on 27th of July.
After this strong job data nothing stands in the way of the FED for a rate hike.
Actually that is their last chance before the elections. Everything is ready for that:
stocks are all time highs, the Brexit vote is done... Yellen will come out next week to prepare the market for 27th July.

The question is the next: will gold             test the 1390-1400 ( target price counted from the pennant ) or not. 1390$ also the the 2014 March intermediate high.
It's hard to imagine we can continue this rally without a DCL.
Comment: The possible DCL could occur at the 10 EMA (or 200 MA) on the weekly chart.
Comment: Hanging man candlestick on the daily chart.
snapshot

Forming after an advance, a hanging man signals that selling pressure is starting to increase. The low of the long lower shadow confirms that sellers pushed prices lower during the session. Even though the bulls regained their footing and drove prices higher by the finish, the appearance of selling pressure is there on high volume. On Monday we need bearish confirmation. The best would be a red candlestick on heavy volume without breaking Friday's daily high.
Though we might get a test of 1390-1400 $ first in the Asian session before the decline .
Comment: The question is did we have the cycle top on day 27 or we are going to have it on Monday at day 30?
Comment: Gold soar on the strong data was a perfect opportunity for banks to sell their miner shares on high volume. I wouldn't be surprised on a gap down on Monday in GDX.
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Comment: One more interesting thing: Gold and gold miners...
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Comment: Gold rally on low volume. Miners were trading near record volume.
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Comment: We are forming an hourly range.
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Comment: It looks moere and more to me that we are in a range.
As today the dollar seems to be starting its decline gold will be tough to fall...
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Comment: So far so good.
snapshot
Comment: My red candle is covered by the real candle.
:)
Comment: My second red candle is covered by this week candle.
Press play...
THANK YOU! Enjoy watching your play unfold.
Reply
I pressed the play and that's exactly the size of red candle!!! you are legend!!
Cheers!!
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That Barrik (ABX) liquidation.. That one supposed to be last to fall.
+1 Reply
All my DUST allocated money are in play. The question is now will $1300 stop it or it will fall further? I can't get rid of idea that they will talk rate hikes next two weeks and therefore gold should keep falling/consolidating all this time.
+1 Reply
I'm with you in the Short, thanks!
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It is already key reversal (engulfing) on weekly chart on Tuesday... If gold wants to survive it should run back up within 3 days. I doubt that will happen.
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Double top at $1375? I think going below $1335 will make it official.
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so does that mean that good for shorts we are still heading towards 1300 this week?
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The weak dollar is not good for the shorts.
I just posted the range that it seems we might pop up to the top of the range (1375$).
Maybe a marginal breakout to 1400...
But sooner or later we will go to the DCL...
+1 Reply
pbartashevich PRO chartwatchers
Hi Arpi, I am not sure that dollar will be weak. It is forming ascending triangle from Brexit with 200 SMA on top and 50EMA/SMA at the bottom. That should resolve upward. Fundamentally, the appetite for save heaven has been greatly reduced. That maybe pushing downward pressure on dollar but even more downward pressure on Gold. Nikkei (NKY) broke its downtrend line today with gap, so Yen should fall. I think NKY had it ICL, Bond yields reversed from their lows and going higher.
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