The big picture (weekly) is neutral

FX:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
144 3 7
- Ichimoku is neutral: Price is below Kijun, but above Kumo cloud. Tenkan is still above Kijun, both lines are flat. Thick Kumo ahead shades price. Chikou Span hit past candles. This setup is neutral, with still good strategic bullish supports for Gold             .
- The long term picture would change to bullish if Price closes back above Kijun at 1287. Let's say a firm close above 1295 could bring back all bullish hopes.
- Look at Heikin-Ashi pattern! Last week we already saw bearish momentum dropped quite a lot: inside candle with higher low (still without upper wick). haDelta also crossed above its SMA3. This week's candle will be very important.
- DM_Oscillator slowly turns higher, and EWO             also shows an absolutely neutral picture, as it is still holding at/above zero.
- MACD: signals is still neutral as both lines hold above zero. A cross up would confirm bullish resumption.

- Bearish Ichimoku setup, but price is a bit distant from the flat Kijun Sen. A retracement to 1295 would be healthy.
- Heikin-Ashi shows consolidation right above Tenkan Sen. Pull back towards bearis support zone 1292-1300 may continue. However I doubt Gold             could break back above 1300 for first attempt.
- EWO             is bearish

Most likely scenario for this week is either a sideaway consolidation in 1255-1275 range, or further retracement towards 1295.
What position should we have now? The least I'd hold further is a short. I don't see lot more upside for bearish positions. So should we get long? Maybe a little, but again, the big strategic picture is neutral.

Be either small long + sell covered Calls at 1310 strike against that, or just stay neutral.

Note: if you go down to 4H time frame, you can see it still supports half size swing long position with 1256 stop.
Conflicting both from TA and world factors .Is there a measured way of predicting a sharp move up or down and where those targets would be?Rgds Alan Simpson
Kumowizard AlanSimpson
Never predict! Just follow (the price action andnthe signals)
+1 Reply
Yep. Agree that $1300 is serious resistance for balance of 2015, and /or first attempt. By the same token, not sure downside opportunities are apparent either. If I had the nerve i'd do a strangle.
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