FX:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
3951 22 66
I've found an interesting correlation between gold             and EurUsd             . Gold             seems to be determined by the USD in the previous days. I'm watching especially the correlation between the most important currency pair ( EurUsd             ) and gold             .

I think when EurUsd             breaks out of the falling wedge next week , gold             will also print a bounce up to the 50 EMA (4hrs chart) and maybe to the 100 EMA .

This short bounce should last for 4-5 days and might give us a nice oportunitiy to short gold             again from 1240-1250.
Comment: Notice the convergence. EurUsd might be breaking the trendline.
I changed the trendline from the wedge to a channel - the channel will give the breakout signal later.
Comment: Last week we couldn't hold the 10 & 20 EMA. Though today's volume is low it would be very important to hold the 20 EMA by the close on the hourly chart.
We broke below the 28.03. DCL in the night but price came back . I didn't see too many stops below this march DCL . I think a few banks and funds will be positioned in gold for the next years at this level.
The 10 EMA seems to be holded so far.
Hye Arpi, what happen to gold and EURUSD if they brexit vote to stay? Did the price drastically moving up and break 1280?
saint_athur saint_athur
If they decide to stay on euro zone? ***

Sorry typo
chartwatchers saint_athur
Usd will weaken. EurUsd will rally.
Gold could rally on that neews also. Gold is not always in a convergence with the eurusd.
Now they are moving together .
+1 Reply
patience is a virtue guys...
Thanks for deep analysis. I also took long positon on friday, it was completly clear that it was risky move, most probably with unsufitient risk reward. A bit adrenalin fun must also stay.
Notice the convergence. EurUsd might be breaking the trendline.
I changed the trendline from the wedge to a channel - the channel will give the breakout signal later.
Ronnee chartwatchers
Haha to your critics Arpi , looks like a bounce in gear now, gone back through 1210 anyway, come on guys/gals.! Who's been better since 1300.?. Use should have made heaps....anyway who's right all the time!, ....answer is easy...keep up your good work Arpi.......I don't mind ya over analysising!, if that's what it is! As someone said you are a master,! Nite cheers ron
Chartwatcher's observations are spot on. I just think the analysis for a bounce could have waited until after Yellin spoke. Last week was a strong news cycle. Fed speak moves markets and can confirm or reduce to mush technical analysis. Chartwatcher, thanks to you I am now studying the daily cycle lows. To calculate the dcl are you using fractals on the daily chart and and counting the candles from high to low. I learned that gold cycles from high to low somewhere between 16 and 22 days is this correct? Thank you for your time.
KevinTang Renegade7
There should be a bounce here. However, the strong dollar news are everywhere. The market is not bullish enough to make a bounce here. Quite tricky here.
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