FX:XAUUSD   Gold/U.S. Dollar
3946 22 64
6 months ago
I've found an interesting correlation between gold             and EurUsd             . Gold             seems to be determined by the USD in the previous days. I'm watching especially the correlation between the most important currency pair ( EurUsd             ) and gold             .

I think when EurUsd             breaks out of the falling wedge next week , gold             will also print a bounce up to the 50 EMA (4hrs chart) and maybe to the 100 EMA.

This short bounce should last for 4-5 days and might give us a nice oportunitiy to short gold             again from 1240-1250.
6 months ago
Comment: Notice the convergence. EurUsd might be breaking the trendline.
I changed the trendline from the wedge to a channel - the channel will give the breakout signal later.
snapshot
6 months ago
Comment: Last week we couldn't hold the 10 & 20 EMA. Though today's volume is low it would be very important to hold the 20 EMA by the close on the hourly chart.
We broke below the 28.03. DCL in the night but price came back . I didn't see too many stops below this march DCL . I think a few banks and funds will be positioned in gold for the next years at this level.
The 10 EMA seems to be holded so far.
snapshot
robus
6 months ago
Well I am not sure of falling wedge, but this is what I think about EURUSD
EURUSD : Downtrend Intact - Short for 0.5 fib. 0.382 extension
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al.calgary
6 months ago
All depends on US dollar. as US$ strengthens, the gold and EUR/US weaken. That's why you the correlation here. So US$ answers all questions. if it rallies, gold will drop and vice versa.
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rohithisgood al.calgary
6 months ago
What's the new news that's causing gold to go down again? It hit $1199.40 today and if it doesn't pull back up we are going to see another 10% loss on most gold stocks.
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JesseL rohithisgood
6 months ago
The PBOC set the official exchange rate of the onshore Yuan lower by nearly 0.5%, from 6.5490 to 6.5794, the lowest fixing in more than 5 years, or February 2011.
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Ronnee
6 months ago
Morning Arpi, agree,providing USD comes down, not at present. Why x500 going so high with the dollar? If dollars stays 2day can gold proceed to your 4 th wave, you think? I shorted to do so from 07.2...watching dollar reversal happens will watch for a bounce to 25-26 maybe. You still looking at 90 below longer term? Regards Ron
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LJT
6 months ago
So a question from a novice, is a rally a higher high? Would you say US is going higher high already this morning? What is it that you watch for to give confidence yes this is it or no this is not it? Hope you can understand me!
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Ronnee
6 months ago
Hi Arpi, took profit @1200.05 and reentered short to 1190.8.. Dollar still strong 1:43pm here NZ. Go u good thing. As you say still can see a biggesh bounce.espically 2moro night when US back. I feel your prediction on the bottom is still to come, maybe after int rate day or and Brexit vote. Is it true they cannot alter int rate from early July until after election, then after Wellen sacked if Trump wins not until new chairman selected? Election may be time of bull-run start? You think? Ron
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Victor.Y.F
6 months ago
Thank you Chartwatchers! I think you're good at gold but you over analyze it. You are not right about everything especially when you predict the counter trend.
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KevinTang
6 months ago
The daily chart told us gold goes downward to 200EMA. I believe the market is testing the 200EMA. The starting of June would see if it break down below 200EMA.
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terminator007
6 months ago
where is the bounce folks? It keeps falling.
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terminator007
6 months ago
where is the bounce folks? It keeps falling!
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chrismirtsios
6 months ago
Holiday today,senior traders golfing,junior traders just hunting stops of retail traders.Mr Chartwatchers you are the man.
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Notice the convergence. EurUsd might be breaking the trendline.
I changed the trendline from the wedge to a channel - the channel will give the breakout signal later.
snapshot
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Ronnee chartwatchers
6 months ago
Haha to your critics Arpi , looks like a bounce in gear now, gone back through 1210 anyway, come on guys/gals.! Who's been better since 1300.?. Use should have made heaps....anyway who's right all the time!, ....answer is easy...keep up your good work Arpi.......I don't mind ya over analysising!, if that's what it is! As someone said you are a master,! Nite cheers ron
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Renegade7 Ronnee
6 months ago
Chartwatcher's observations are spot on. I just think the analysis for a bounce could have waited until after Yellin spoke. Last week was a strong news cycle. Fed speak moves markets and can confirm or reduce to mush technical analysis. Chartwatcher, thanks to you I am now studying the daily cycle lows. To calculate the dcl are you using fractals on the daily chart and and counting the candles from high to low. I learned that gold cycles from high to low somewhere between 16 and 22 days is this correct? Thank you for your time.
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KevinTang Renegade7
6 months ago
There should be a bounce here. However, the strong dollar news are everywhere. The market is not bullish enough to make a bounce here. Quite tricky here.
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kizly
6 months ago
Thanks for deep analysis. I also took long positon on friday, it was completly clear that it was risky move, most probably with unsufitient risk reward. A bit adrenalin fun must also stay.
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hyjbh
6 months ago
patience is a virtue guys...
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Vincemushi
6 months ago
Eurekaaaaa!!!!!!
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saint_athur
6 months ago
Hye Arpi, what happen to gold and EURUSD if they brexit vote to stay? Did the price drastically moving up and break 1280?
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saint_athur saint_athur
6 months ago
If they decide to stay on euro zone? ***

Sorry typo
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chartwatchers PRO saint_athur
6 months ago
Usd will weaken. EurUsd will rally.
Gold could rally on that neews also. Gold is not always in a convergence with the eurusd.
Now they are moving together .
+1 Reply
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