chartwatchers
Short

GOLD - Jesse Livermore Memorial Short

FX:XAUUSD   Gold / U.S. Dollar
9562 155 114
I would like to offer this short trade to Jesse Livermore the best who ever lived
short trader of the Wall Street for his 139. upcoming birthday.
If I'm right we are going to print in gold             this June a low which we will never going to see again in our life.
Once this decline is finished gold             will skyrocket above 2000 in the following years.

Everything is ready technically , timewise and currency wise for this short.
- We broke the the daily trendline yesterday. All the retail technical traders are long.
- We tested back the double top's neckline
- Everybody is on the board for the 2nd phase of the bull market. Sentiment is hyperbullish.
- I wish I could see yesterday's COT :(
- We are at day 8 - if it's the 5th daily cycle of this IC             this is the time to turn down.
- RSI is leaving overbought territory. It's usually a sign of a cycle top
- The dollar is breaking out of the wedge , the EurUsd             is printing a daily key reversal...
- We have a FOMC meeting next week with a possible rate hike (or if there is no rate hike we will get a hawkish speech which will strengthen the dollar.)
- We have a brexit poll on the 23th of June ( Euro             is getting weaker )
- Last days' volume was low. If I'm right we will see big volume in the upcoming day's panic
- ... and we might have Jesse at our back.

I don't need anything else.

I'm looking forward to see a tag or a breakdown of the 200 DMA.
Levels to watch:
1234$
1205$
1190$

It's time for the market to throw a curveball to the longs who think gold             will skyrocket and they can make an easy money on their longs.
Yes it will but first we have to salute to the Great Bear of Wall Street with this short trade.
Comment: We are still in a wedge. And we still have the divergences.
And the dollar in a rally mode. Stocks are in a rally mode.
Volume is low again. I think algos and retail is buying. The wedge still has to breakdown... In the afternoon we had a false breakdown.
snapshot
Comment: In the night price has broken down the lower trendline of the wedge on the hourly chart.
MACD crossed down again and printed the 3rd diverging top.
snapshot
Comment: 4hrs MACD also gave in the crossover sign
snapshot
Comment: Check out the 4hrs chart history how many times did the MACD 2nd crossover give a false signal.
We will have some kind of correction.
looking forward for your sign to jump in short!
+1 Reply
Wow what a great idea. Jesse The Legend. RIP
+1 Reply
The most inspirational speach about particular trade EVER!!!!
+3 Reply
motleifaul J_Pixel
:-))
Reply
DUST will triple?
+1 Reply
Wow , very inspiring description! Keep it up.
+1 Reply
I'm still on board with my king's crown on XAUUSD idea. You've gone much broader with your analysis - thank you. My favorite living technician is still a little bullish but weakening and your, my and his levels all match up, but must daily (NY) close below 1264 or it goes to 1292.... The tape will tell....
+1 Reply
Yeah, I see opportunity now, to go short, but it was strange US open go up.
+1 Reply
hi arpi... do you have a stop loss at all...or just flying naked... lol (the chart wont load for me .. for some reason.. just keep getting the circle moving around and around)
+2 Reply
shinsky webmiztriz
I think on his metal trade 3 he said $1267.
+1 Reply
But then he revised and say everything is ok... Yeah, but 1267 is reachable today, with this up moves (without sense, because $$ is going up).
+1 Reply
shinsky ja.piotr.bor
Then no idea
+1 Reply
And what do you think about copper? Will alaso tank with gold (because today is active bear on copper, nice for me to buy, but dont know...)
+1 Reply
with the shield or on the shield!
+1 Reply
1267! And staying above 15minute all green volumes... Just wooowww... For me no trade today with this green volume candles...
+2 Reply
BartekAnisko ja.piotr.bor
very strange, eur/usd very bearish all red volumes, divergence in the correlation
+1 Reply
Gold is going nuts!
+3 Reply
Better see the report of NG and NG - hahaha. For me it's unbelievable - it made all the losses from all year in 2 weeks...
I'm still angry that I see what can come and don't bought at 2.2 or 2.3
+2 Reply
Maybe $1273 ???
+2 Reply
What did i say about shorting whatever u do dont short this metal u will burn yourself hard. this is going to 1290 so stay away from shorts
+6 Reply
Nightstar BjornPfaff
You're the same guy that said there wasn't going to be bounce remember?! So shut the Hell up :) Haha
+5 Reply
BjornPfaff Nightstar
You have to read between the lines man , i said no bounce in 4 days , this is a rally now that wil continue till 1290 all because of fundementals not because of the dollar. no one can predict the market neither can predict the fundementals so i would say take some good lessons and grow up.
+2 Reply
Nightstar BjornPfaff
Read between the lines my Ass..!
+2 Reply
BjornPfaff Nightstar
Go short man , i dare u .. and good luck with it. this conversation is over.
+2 Reply
USSRandolph Nightstar
Nightstar. Quit being an ASS. Everyone has a right to their opinion. You sure express yours enough. Exercise a little tolerance and patience.
+3 Reply
Nightstar USSRandolph
I don't want to spoil this blog post so I left you a 'private message' with a few choice words -- Enjoy!
+2 Reply
USSRandolph Nightstar
Aren't we touchy.
+2 Reply
Cheetsbaby84 USSRandolph
Don't worry USSRandolph. This clown will be wrong again. He disappeared from all of Apri's posts only to reappear when one of Apri's calls doesn't go exactly to plan. The guy is arrogant and daft.
+1 Reply
Cheetsbaby84 Cheetsbaby84
Sorry I meant to say nightstar, not USSRandolph. BjornPfaff is the clown I'm talking about.
+1 Reply
saif12 PRO Nightstar
Night star. without hello< Please keep your word professional, it is his view, so. use your mind to take or leave it. without street language.
+1 Reply
Nothing wrong with a little bit of street language Saif, especially with those that are being inconsiderate of others :)
+1 Reply
saif12 PRO Nightstar
I think you are the one with an ego. Street language in the street. but here where thousands of people are following trying to make their life a little better, I do not think you are gaining any respect from anybody. No one will get the market 100%, so when people make wrong assumption, you do not use street language, they are not your employee or your servant, they are your colleagues who are sharing their experience, So the very least you can say Thank you to them, whether they are right or wrong. I hope you start practicing such way of life.
+1 Reply
jamesjones511 Nightstar
Yeah Paff is always in the wrong direction.
The best contrarian indicator. I'm going all in for gold short before market close.
LOL
+2 Reply
What UK to close!!! It might be false break out. Run on stops!!!!!!
+1 Reply
Why are you criticizing people of making easy money on their longs? You are making more easy money on both the longs and shorts
I never short. When I predict something going down I just sell and wait for a good point to re-enter. When I exit gold during down times, I usually hold the cash or invest in something else than shorting what I was once long on.
+2 Reply
I think bears are done since we broke $1263. but good luck. i think we're gonna make new highs $1300+
GOLD BOUNCE OFF KEY SUPPORT LINE - bull
+3 Reply
Well i really hope this turns around...
+1 Reply
BjornPfaff Bpot555
Sorry friend , better hedge ur position
+1 Reply
Are we not printing the right shoulder?
+1 Reply
nexuz Gibster
possible - lets see what the daily close brings. that break of 1263 is not nice imho but everything else is turning so just sit back and enjoy the show
+1 Reply
nexuz nexuz
btw bearish divergence on h1
+1 Reply
I suggest all who is long, just get out of the market , even if you have big loss. Either your account will be eaten up or u will still have some left over. This market is not going near 1200. So this is a long trade, not a short trade.
+1 Reply
RAZRus BjornPfaff
4 days ago U said that all indicators and fundementals point to short...
Ha Ha
+1 Reply
true , but as i can see , the market changed rapidly i wouldn't short here , thats my opinion
+1 Reply
RAZRus BjornPfaff
Don't be presumptuous...and everything will be fine :)
+1 Reply
:) we all are here for the same reason right , why would we need to fight for something we all don't know for 100% , im chill man don't worry :-)
+3 Reply
Nightstar BjornPfaff
There he is again folks; he just can't help himself, Lol! The problem with you buddy boy is your attitude. It's not constructive in the least and all you do is crap on someone else's idea and that's not cool in my books. Arpi doesn't have a crystal ball but unlike you, he knows exactly what he's talking about and so far he's been right on point --- And he does it for free!!

Gratitude goes a long way my friend :)
+1 Reply
Yes it looks like we are printing the right shoulder...
+1 Reply
Shorting is a good idea, but not at this level. I'm looking for 1285-1290 to jump in with my short. Please check out my idea.
GOLD SHORT (PART 1)
+5 Reply
bertcoin PRO VietnamGold
Agree. Right shoulder can go as high as 1285. 1264 was fib resistance and I started nibbling in. But daily (NY) closing above 1285 and I think the Head and Shoulders or King's Crown is gone and I'm out for now. Really like @chartwatcher 's DCL->ICL thoughts.... Would just have to wait for the right signal. I think I'm looking for more right shoulder volume and a higher RSI(14) too.... This will be a lesson in patience or a lesson in pain....
+3 Reply
We should have a memorial to all the money that has been lost on this trade..
+3 Reply
Quant Bpot555
Mr. Livermore, went broke many of times...TA spots trends not predict them. When things are bullish find bullish trends, when things are bearish then find bearish trend.
+2 Reply
Quant Quant
snapshot
+1 Reply
Please let the US followers know with enough time so we don't miss it in the night like last time on the big run up.

+1 Reply
this is so so wrong, Jesse would tell you to follow price, what an embarassment to his memory
+1 Reply
bschafer ztokar
I somewhat agree but lets not go as far as saying its an embarrassment. Jesse lost everything multiple times in his career...making some of the same mistakes...and I'm not calling this a mistake because this play is not yet over. Chartwaters is longer term than most of his followers, which has to be hard and frustrating for him. Jesse knew the virtue of patience, so does Apri. People on here follow him to the "T" and expect him to update every second the tape changes. If you are freaking out asking for exact SL numbers or when the perfect time to enter...IMHO, you deserve to get burned. It's OK to follow Apri, but use your own judgement & your own research...and as ppl have commented on here before, don't put in too much capital on one single call. Pyramid your position if its a winner. Get out and wait if not. Chartwatchers is a great analyzer...ztokar, you probably are too: but all of us must remember - "A man may beat a stock or a group at a certain time, but no man living can beat the stock market!"
+4 Reply
you should quit this trading and find a new job my friend.. Your insighs are so wrong that if people listened to you they would loose a fortune..
+1 Reply
keefer0 TarikCandar
I'm sure this is the first post you've read of chartwatchers! He's been posting for awhile now and has been spot on so don't be rude. If you don't agree with their analysis, then don't post anything.
+10 Reply
if you are not open to well deserved critisism you may as well stop posting wrong ideas..
+1 Reply
USSRandolph TarikCandar
And on what basis do you criticize, your knowledge and experience or your emotional reaction and crudeness?
Reply
DMS TarikCandar
I think this comment is rude. Don't expect to have the market timing handed to you or expect that anyone can time the exact moment of a movement. The analysis that was given is great and to expect any hypothesis to immediately play out, will only cause you to lose as a trader.
+6 Reply
traderzaius TarikCandar
wrong, Arpi is a master of cycles, he is right more often than wrong... still respect his opinion even though he went in on this trade too early
+2 Reply
Is the author trolling? Livermore died broke, lost 4 fortunes, and burned all bridges....def no the GOAT
+2 Reply
jamesjones511 sliqdaddy91
daddy I think you should read a few books before posting BS.
Reading is free.
+1 Reply
sliqdaddy91 PRO jamesjones511
you're an idiot. he killed himself...again, I stand by what I said.
+2 Reply
Mitasse sliqdaddy91
He was able to build 4 fortuned... how bout you?
+1 Reply
4 damned?
LOL
+1 Reply
27 years old, bought an AMG merc from FX, and on the way to Med School....I'm winning you twat
+2 Reply
USSRandolph sliqdaddy91
And you can brag too! My, you are great!
Reply
I think you should post even if the trade is not going like you have predicted.
Express whats on your mind so other can understand as well.
+1 Reply
chartwatchers PRO northportsmokes
1. Might I wait till the US market is closing?
- Thank you very much.
2. This is not a paid newsletter. So I post when I have something to post.
3. Anyway I posted at 10:03 pm.
+26 Reply
USSRandolph chartwatchers
Good for you Arpi. I get tired of the presumptions so some of these people. Let's all be less hostile, a little more great full to Arpi and supportive of each other; we might all get somewhere.
+2 Reply
michaelkid_wang chartwatchers
Hi Arpi. please ignore those gamblers' noise over here. You don't need to reply to those noise but focus on your work. You have done a great job. People may make mistake, but I don't like to see you make mistake because of those gamblers' noise. You have a sound sleep, refresh the mind, and I look forward to your new thoughts every day. Thank you very much for your work.
+1 Reply
saif12 PRO chartwatchers
Hello Arpi, right or wrong, you are the best. This is market, and if you get it right 51%, that is all what a good trader needs,
cheers :)
+1 Reply
vikingaskepp northportsmokes
Generally speaking, that's a very good idea. In this case, maybe not. The author of this particular idea has posted a lot, energetically, within the last couple of days, weeks, maybe even months. (I wouldn't know, have only been following a few weeks. But I guess you can go back and check.) The biggest problem seems to be that the readers don't have time to read the posts. So posting more frequently wouldn't really make anything any clearer. Or would it?
A suggestion is to go back and read another related idea, for more background. If nothing else, just to enjoy the headlines, which add life, in my opinion.

Karin
+2 Reply
if both stocks and DXY are in a rally mode, then whose holding the gold price...
+1 Reply
I think maybe bullion banks. They want retail to accumulate and when they are ready they just let gold fall.
Do they know anything regarding the FOMC meeting next week?
If there is a rate increase next week this is going to be a nasty breakdown...
+1 Reply
Cornhub jamesjones511
No one knows what's gonna happen in June FOMC, maybe just announce what's gonna happen in July FOMC, 4% chance on people expecting rate hikes in June, and Brexit is right after it, just no way Yellen will YOLO and raise rate in June
+1 Reply
the fed is buying stocks while everyone else is buying gold
+2 Reply
Cornhub traderzaius
then i guess they are trying to add equity back into the market so that they can make their data looks better~~
+1 Reply
Arpi, thank you for keeping all of us in the loop on your TA, thoughts on the market, economic influences, etc... Your followers greatly appreciate ALL OF YOUR EFFORTS and really enjoy reading your posts. While all thoughts are desired negative comments should be framed in a more positive manner. When Arpi's trades go well, how about posting positive comments (especially the Negative Nancy's, on the board, that go silent when Arpi's trades go as planned, maybe not as quick as they like).

It is great to learn more about Livermore's history... Roger Babson predicted the Great Depression a few times, he lost money... But when it really counted, like Livermore Babson saved his clients a ton of money and made him and his clients a fortune. Many very successful people lose money, they learn from their mistakes, adjust and become more successful.

I started second guessing my analysis on NUGT, found this website and Arpi... My trade was correct but a little early on timing, held my NUGT (I was ready to sell for a lose) and made a solid profit. Without Arpi and this site I would of sold a week early and continually second guessing myself. Thankfully I found this community :). Keep up the good work Arpi...
+2 Reply
EET Hks6996
Agree with you, Arpi is a perfect teacher for those who's following him from start in trading view. Thank you Arpi!
+2 Reply
CW you have metal balls MAN !
If this idea comes true I'll send it to my friend who works at Marketwatch.
+1 Reply
Comment removed
NinjaMG2016 northportsmokes
Everyone has to use their own discretion when trading --- you clearly did not, which explains your attitude. Realize that whenever someone gives their opinion, whether they are a pro or not, there is a risk it may not go the "right" way. Learn to trust your own intuition instead of relying on others and then blaming others for your own mistakes.
+1 Reply
toothless northportsmokes