chartwatchers
Short

GOLD - Jesse Livermore Memorial Short

FX:XAUUSD   Gold/U.S. Dollar
9549 155 112
6 months ago
I would like to offer this short trade to Jesse Livermore the best who ever lived
short trader of the Wall Street for his 139. upcoming birthday.
If I'm right we are going to print in gold             this June a low which we will never going to see again in our life.
Once this decline is finished gold             will skyrocket above 2000 in the following years.

Everything is ready technically , timewise and currency wise for this short.
- We broke the the daily trendline yesterday. All the retail technical traders are long.
- We tested back the double top's neckline
- Everybody is on the board for the 2nd phase of the bull market. Sentiment is hyperbullish.
- I wish I could see yesterday's COT :(
- We are at day 8 - if it's the 5th daily cycle of this IC             this is the time to turn down.
- RSI is leaving overbought territory. It's usually a sign of a cycle top
- The dollar is breaking out of the wedge, the EurUsd             is printing a daily key reversal...
- We have a FOMC meeting next week with a possible rate hike (or if there is no rate hike we will get a hawkish speech which will strengthen the dollar.)
- We have a brexit poll on the 23th of June ( Euro             is getting weaker )
- Last days' volume was low. If I'm right we will see big volume in the upcoming day's panic
- ... and we might have Jesse at our back.

I don't need anything else.

I'm looking forward to see a tag or a breakdown of the 200 DMA.
Levels to watch:
1234$
1205$
1190$

It's time for the market to throw a curveball to the longs who think gold             will skyrocket and they can make an easy money on their longs.
Yes it will but first we have to salute to the Great Bear of Wall Street with this short trade.
6 months ago
Comment: We are still in a wedge. And we still have the divergences.
And the dollar in a rally mode. Stocks are in a rally mode.
Volume is low again. I think algos and retail is buying. The wedge still has to breakdown... In the afternoon we had a false breakdown.
snapshot
6 months ago
Comment: In the night price has broken down the lower trendline of the wedge on the hourly chart.
MACD crossed down again and printed the 3rd diverging top.
snapshot
6 months ago
Comment: 4hrs MACD also gave in the crossover sign
snapshot
6 months ago
Comment: Check out the 4hrs chart history how many times did the MACD 2nd crossover give a false signal.
We will have some kind of correction.
mabaert PRO
6 months ago
looking forward for your sign to jump in short!
+1 Reply
babak_eng
6 months ago
Wow what a great idea. Jesse The Legend. RIP
+1 Reply
J_Pixel
6 months ago
The most inspirational speach about particular trade EVER!!!!
+3 Reply
motleifaul J_Pixel
6 months ago
:-))
Reply
chasingziyou
6 months ago
DUST will triple?
+1 Reply
VForex
6 months ago
Wow , very inspiring description! Keep it up.
+1 Reply
bertcoin PRO
6 months ago
I'm still on board with my king's crown on XAUUSD idea. You've gone much broader with your analysis - thank you. My favorite living technician is still a little bullish but weakening and your, my and his levels all match up, but must daily (NY) close below 1264 or it goes to 1292.... The tape will tell....
+1 Reply
ja.piotr.bor
6 months ago
Yeah, I see opportunity now, to go short, but it was strange US open go up.
+1 Reply
webmiztriz PRO
6 months ago
hi arpi... do you have a stop loss at all...or just flying naked... lol (the chart wont load for me .. for some reason.. just keep getting the circle moving around and around)
+2 Reply
shinsky webmiztriz
6 months ago
I think on his metal trade 3 he said $1267.
+1 Reply
ja.piotr.bor shinsky
6 months ago
But then he revised and say everything is ok... Yeah, but 1267 is reachable today, with this up moves (without sense, because $$ is going up).
+1 Reply
shinsky ja.piotr.bor
6 months ago
Then no idea
+1 Reply
ja.piotr.bor
6 months ago
And what do you think about copper? Will alaso tank with gold (because today is active bear on copper, nice for me to buy, but dont know...)
+1 Reply
IgorK
6 months ago
with the shield or on the shield!
+1 Reply
ja.piotr.bor
6 months ago
1267! And staying above 15minute all green volumes... Just wooowww... For me no trade today with this green volume candles...
+2 Reply
BartekAnisko ja.piotr.bor
6 months ago
very strange, eur/usd very bearish all red volumes, divergence in the correlation
+1 Reply
PF7
6 months ago
Gold is going nuts!
+3 Reply
ja.piotr.bor
6 months ago
Better see the report of NG and NG - hahaha. For me it's unbelievable - it made all the losses from all year in 2 weeks...
I'm still angry that I see what can come and don't bought at 2.2 or 2.3
+2 Reply
PF7
6 months ago
Maybe $1273 ???
+2 Reply
BjornPfaff
6 months ago
What did i say about shorting whatever u do dont short this metal u will burn yourself hard. this is going to 1290 so stay away from shorts
+6 Reply
Nightstar BjornPfaff
6 months ago
You're the same guy that said there wasn't going to be bounce remember?! So shut the Hell up :) Haha
+5 Reply
BjornPfaff Nightstar
6 months ago
You have to read between the lines man , i said no bounce in 4 days , this is a rally now that wil continue till 1290 all because of fundementals not because of the dollar. no one can predict the market neither can predict the fundementals so i would say take some good lessons and grow up.
+2 Reply
Nightstar BjornPfaff
6 months ago
Read between the lines my Ass..!
+2 Reply
BjornPfaff Nightstar
6 months ago
Go short man , i dare u .. and good luck with it. this conversation is over.
+2 Reply
USSRandolph Nightstar
6 months ago
Nightstar. Quit being an ASS. Everyone has a right to their opinion. You sure express yours enough. Exercise a little tolerance and patience.
+3 Reply
Nightstar USSRandolph
6 months ago
I don't want to spoil this blog post so I left you a 'private message' with a few choice words -- Enjoy!
+2 Reply
USSRandolph Nightstar
6 months ago
Aren't we touchy.
+2 Reply
Cheetsbaby84 USSRandolph
6 months ago
Don't worry USSRandolph. This clown will be wrong again. He disappeared from all of Apri's posts only to reappear when one of Apri's calls doesn't go exactly to plan. The guy is arrogant and daft.
+1 Reply
Cheetsbaby84 Cheetsbaby84
6 months ago
Sorry I meant to say nightstar, not USSRandolph. BjornPfaff is the clown I'm talking about.
+1 Reply
saif12 PRO Nightstar
6 months ago
Night star. without hello< Please keep your word professional, it is his view, so. use your mind to take or leave it. without street language.
+1 Reply
Nightstar saif12
6 months ago
Nothing wrong with a little bit of street language Saif, especially with those that are being inconsiderate of others :)
+1 Reply
saif12 PRO Nightstar
6 months ago
I think you are the one with an ego. Street language in the street. but here where thousands of people are following trying to make their life a little better, I do not think you are gaining any respect from anybody. No one will get the market 100%, so when people make wrong assumption, you do not use street language, they are not your employee or your servant, they are your colleagues who are sharing their experience, So the very least you can say Thank you to them, whether they are right or wrong. I hope you start practicing such way of life.
+1 Reply
jamesjones511 Nightstar
6 months ago
Yeah Paff is always in the wrong direction.
The best contrarian indicator. I'm going all in for gold short before market close.
LOL
+2 Reply
haronbg
6 months ago
What UK to close!!! It might be false break out. Run on stops!!!!!!
+1 Reply
rohithisgood
6 months ago
Why are you criticizing people of making easy money on their longs? You are making more easy money on both the longs and shorts
I never short. When I predict something going down I just sell and wait for a good point to re-enter. When I exit gold during down times, I usually hold the cash or invest in something else than shorting what I was once long on.
+2 Reply
Loii
6 months ago
I think bears are done since we broke $1263. but good luck. i think we're gonna make new highs $1300+
GOLD BOUNCE OFF KEY SUPPORT LINE - bull
+3 Reply
Bpot555
6 months ago
Well i really hope this turns around...
+1 Reply
BjornPfaff Bpot555
6 months ago
Sorry friend , better hedge ur position
+1 Reply
Gibster
6 months ago
Are we not printing the right shoulder?
+1 Reply
nexuz Gibster
6 months ago
possible - lets see what the daily close brings. that break of 1263 is not nice imho but everything else is turning so just sit back and enjoy the show
+1 Reply
nexuz nexuz
6 months ago
btw bearish divergence on h1
+1 Reply
BjornPfaff
6 months ago
I suggest all who is long, just get out of the market , even if you have big loss. Either your account will be eaten up or u will still have some left over. This market is not going near 1200. So this is a long trade, not a short trade.
+1 Reply
RAZRus BjornPfaff
6 months ago
4 days ago U said that all indicators and fundementals point to short...
Ha Ha
+1 Reply
BjornPfaff RAZRus
6 months ago
true , but as i can see , the market changed rapidly i wouldn't short here , thats my opinion
+1 Reply
RAZRus BjornPfaff
6 months ago
Don't be presumptuous...and everything will be fine :)
+1 Reply
BjornPfaff RAZRus
6 months ago
:) we all are here for the same reason right , why would we need to fight for something we all don't know for 100% , im chill man don't worry :-)
+3 Reply
Nightstar BjornPfaff
6 months ago
There he is again folks; he just can't help himself, Lol! The problem with you buddy boy is your attitude. It's not constructive in the least and all you do is crap on someone else's idea and that's not cool in my books. Arpi doesn't have a crystal ball but unlike you, he knows exactly what he's talking about and so far he's been right on point --- And he does it for free!!

Gratitude goes a long way my friend :)
+1 Reply
Yes it looks like we are printing the right shoulder...
+1 Reply
VietnamGold
6 months ago
Shorting is a good idea, but not at this level. I'm looking for 1285-1290 to jump in with my short. Please check out my idea.
GOLD SHORT (PART 1)
+5 Reply
bertcoin PRO VietnamGold
6 months ago
Agree. Right shoulder can go as high as 1285. 1264 was fib resistance and I started nibbling in. But daily (NY) closing above 1285 and I think the Head and Shoulders or King's Crown is gone and I'm out for now. Really like @chartwatcher 's DCL->ICL thoughts.... Would just have to wait for the right signal. I think I'm looking for more right shoulder volume and a higher RSI(14) too.... This will be a lesson in patience or a lesson in pain....
+3 Reply
Bpot555
6 months ago
We should have a memorial to all the money that has been lost on this trade..
+3 Reply
Quant Bpot555
6 months ago
Mr. Livermore, went broke many of times...TA spots trends not predict them. When things are bullish find bullish trends, when things are bearish then find bearish trend.
+2 Reply
Quant Quant
6 months ago
snapshot
+1 Reply
USSRandolph
6 months ago
Please let the US followers know with enough time so we don't miss it in the night like last time on the big run up.

+1 Reply
ztokar
6 months ago
this is so so wrong, Jesse would tell you to follow price, what an embarassment to his memory
+1 Reply
bschafer ztokar
6 months ago
I somewhat agree but lets not go as far as saying its an embarrassment. Jesse lost everything multiple times in his career...making some of the same mistakes...and I'm not calling this a mistake because this play is not yet over. Chartwaters is longer term than most of his followers, which has to be hard and frustrating for him. Jesse knew the virtue of patience, so does Apri. People on here follow him to the "T" and expect him to update every second the tape changes. If you are freaking out asking for exact SL numbers or when the perfect time to enter...IMHO, you deserve to get burned. It's OK to follow Apri, but use your own judgement & your own research...and as ppl have commented on here before, don't put in too much capital on one single call. Pyramid your position if its a winner. Get out and wait if not. Chartwatchers is a great analyzer...ztokar, you probably are too: but all of us must remember - "A man may beat a stock or a group at a certain time, but no man living can beat the stock market!"
+4 Reply
TarikCandar
6 months ago
you should quit this trading and find a new job my friend.. Your insighs are so wrong that if people listened to you they would loose a fortune..
+1 Reply
keefer0 TarikCandar
6 months ago
I'm sure this is the first post you've read of chartwatchers! He's been posting for awhile now and has been spot on so don't be rude. If you don't agree with their analysis, then don't post anything.
+10 Reply
TarikCandar keefer0
6 months ago
if you are not open to well deserved critisism you may as well stop posting wrong ideas..
+1 Reply
USSRandolph TarikCandar
6 months ago
And on what basis do you criticize, your knowledge and experience or your emotional reaction and crudeness?
Reply
DMS TarikCandar
6 months ago
I think this comment is rude. Don't expect to have the market timing handed to you or expect that anyone can time the exact moment of a movement. The analysis that was given is great and to expect any hypothesis to immediately play out, will only cause you to lose as a trader.
+6 Reply
traderzaius TarikCandar
6 months ago
wrong, Arpi is a master of cycles, he is right more often than wrong... still respect his opinion even though he went in on this trade too early
+2 Reply
sliqdaddy91 PRO
6 months ago
Is the author trolling? Livermore died broke, lost 4 fortunes, and burned all bridges....def no the GOAT
+2 Reply
jamesjones511 sliqdaddy91
6 months ago
daddy I think you should read a few books before posting BS.
Reading is free.
+1 Reply
sliqdaddy91 PRO jamesjones511
6 months ago
you're an idiot. he killed himself...again, I stand by what I said.
+2 Reply
Mitasse sliqdaddy91
6 months ago
He was able to build 4 fortuned... how bout you?
+1 Reply
jamesjones511 Mitasse
6 months ago
4 damned?
LOL
+1 Reply
sliqdaddy91 PRO Mitasse
6 months ago
27 years old, bought an AMG merc from FX, and on the way to Med School....I'm winning you twat
+2 Reply
USSRandolph sliqdaddy91
6 months ago
And you can brag too! My, you are great!
Reply
northportsmokes
6 months ago
I think you should post even if the trade is not going like you have predicted.
Express whats on your mind so other can understand as well.
+1 Reply
chartwatchers PRO northportsmokes
6 months ago
1. Might I wait till the US market is closing?
- Thank you very much.
2. This is not a paid newsletter. So I post when I have something to post.
3. Anyway I posted at 10:03 pm.
+26 Reply
USSRandolph chartwatchers
6 months ago
Good for you Arpi. I get tired of the presumptions so some of these people. Let's all be less hostile, a little more great full to Arpi and supportive of each other; we might all get somewhere.
+2 Reply
michaelkid_wang chartwatchers
6 months ago
Hi Arpi. please ignore those gamblers' noise over here. You don't need to reply to those noise but focus on your work. You have done a great job. People may make mistake, but I don't like to see you make mistake because of those gamblers' noise. You have a sound sleep, refresh the mind, and I look forward to your new thoughts every day. Thank you very much for your work.
+1 Reply
saif12 PRO chartwatchers
6 months ago
Hello Arpi, right or wrong, you are the best. This is market, and if you get it right 51%, that is all what a good trader needs,
cheers :)
+1 Reply
vikingaskepp northportsmokes
6 months ago
Generally speaking, that's a very good idea. In this case, maybe not. The author of this particular idea has posted a lot, energetically, within the last couple of days, weeks, maybe even months. (I wouldn't know, have only been following a few weeks. But I guess you can go back and check.) The biggest problem seems to be that the readers don't have time to read the posts. So posting more frequently wouldn't really make anything any clearer. Or would it?
A suggestion is to go back and read another related idea, for more background. If nothing else, just to enjoy the headlines, which add life, in my opinion.

Karin
+2 Reply
Cornhub
6 months ago
if both stocks and DXY are in a rally mode, then whose holding the gold price...
+1 Reply
jamesjones511 Cornhub
6 months ago
I think maybe bullion banks. They want retail to accumulate and when they are ready they just let gold fall.
Do they know anything regarding the FOMC meeting next week?
If there is a rate increase next week this is going to be a nasty breakdown...
+1 Reply
Cornhub jamesjones511
6 months ago
No one knows what's gonna happen in June FOMC, maybe just announce what's gonna happen in July FOMC, 4% chance on people expecting rate hikes in June, and Brexit is right after it, just no way Yellen will YOLO and raise rate in June
+1 Reply
traderzaius Cornhub
6 months ago
the fed is buying stocks while everyone else is buying gold
+2 Reply
Cornhub traderzaius
6 months ago
then i guess they are trying to add equity back into the market so that they can make their data looks better~~
+1 Reply
Hks6996
6 months ago
Arpi, thank you for keeping all of us in the loop on your TA, thoughts on the market, economic influences, etc... Your followers greatly appreciate ALL OF YOUR EFFORTS and really enjoy reading your posts. While all thoughts are desired negative comments should be framed in a more positive manner. When Arpi's trades go well, how about posting positive comments (especially the Negative Nancy's, on the board, that go silent when Arpi's trades go as planned, maybe not as quick as they like).

It is great to learn more about Livermore's history... Roger Babson predicted the Great Depression a few times, he lost money... But when it really counted, like Livermore Babson saved his clients a ton of money and made him and his clients a fortune. Many very successful people lose money, they learn from their mistakes, adjust and become more successful.

I started second guessing my analysis on NUGT, found this website and Arpi... My trade was correct but a little early on timing, held my NUGT (I was ready to sell for a lose) and made a solid profit. Without Arpi and this site I would of sold a week early and continually second guessing myself. Thankfully I found this community :). Keep up the good work Arpi...
+2 Reply
EET Hks6996
6 months ago
Agree with you, Arpi is a perfect teacher for those who's following him from start in trading view. Thank you Arpi!
+2 Reply
jamesjones511
6 months ago
CW you have metal balls MAN !
If this idea comes true I'll send it to my friend who works at Marketwatch.
+1 Reply
Comment removed
NinjaMG2016 northportsmokes
6 months ago
Everyone has to use their own discretion when trading --- you clearly did not, which explains your attitude. Realize that whenever someone gives their opinion, whether they are a pro or not, there is a risk it may not go the "right" way. Learn to trust your own intuition instead of relying on others and then blaming others for your own mistakes.
+1 Reply
toothless northportsmokes
6 months ago
Projection: When a person has uncomfortable thoughts or feelings, they may project these onto other people, assigning the thoughts or feelings that they need to repress to a convenient alternative target.
+1 Reply
Cheetsbaby84 northportsmokes
6 months ago
Please do yourself a favor and stop following Apri's posts. Thanks
+1 Reply
USSRandolph Cheetsbaby84
6 months ago
Maybe You should take your own advice
Reply
shinsky northportsmokes
6 months ago
You don't understand that there are probably many of you who constantly bother him about updates continuously. Like I've said before, you are already taking on the risk of trading his ideas and from your response, it seems you've taken more risk than you're comfortable with handling.

Of course it would be nice if he did update us real time BUT he's not here as your personal adviser. His full time job is not to provide you with any sort of update or even teach you. He's here to give his own analysis and it's your choice to accept it or not.

So as he wrote, he will provide an update when he has something to say. SO STOP BOTHERING HIM!
+4 Reply
shinsky northportsmokes
6 months ago
People's level of entitlement for updates is as bad as those trolls on comments jeering at someone when the trade is not going their way
+2 Reply
Gibster
6 months ago
Arpi is the man, I learn from him every day, yes this trade may have been a bit early but the signs were there to enter and he can't control the market, he doesn't force you to trade, and it will come good, patience is key!
+5 Reply
Eskobar
6 months ago
lose or win... either is fine, i follow C.W ONLY!
... simply... he'z da best! ;-)
+1 Reply
ocra
6 months ago
Be aware off BREXIT. The change of a brexit is now in advantage.The leavers are in majority.
Gold aint following the Euro anymore.
+1 Reply
4XHunter
6 months ago
Arpi is one of the best Chartist out there in Trading Community. Please respect his work, He could have simply ignored everyone and only did his thing. Glad that he is sharing his analysis with all of us. Trading is all about being consistent, Better Money Management and most importantly - Never Put emotions in your trade. Do you analysis, Come here and check what other people is thinking about it and if you are confident then enter in those trades. Arpi, Please continue what you are doing, I know lot of people in fact myself personally got closed out on this trade, but Hey - we love your work man. you are fantastic.
+6 Reply
Billeci 4XHunter
6 months ago
Completely agreed!

It's unfortunate people expect that Arpi has the answer to every variable that impacts these manipulated markets. If the trades being made are based on one person's advice, then you get the good with the bad - I'm not sure how one could expect more. If we had it figured out ourselves, we wouldn't need to burden Arpi or any other senior trader / chartist, taking their time to share their knowledge, selfishly expecting they're going to answer everyone of our personal questions and get every trade right for us.

As the saying goes, be a part of the solution, not the problem! Collaboration is great, but simply complaining without offering any solutions is counterproductive and not fair to those offering advice (not forcing anyone to make a trade).

Thank you again, Arpi!
+3 Reply
Hei Arpi, that's right we love your work! you are really number one!
+3 Reply
Gibster
6 months ago