staurum

Just a guess in June 2016

FX:XAUUSD   Gold/U.S. Dollar
50 0 1
5 months ago
ADX, a super lagging indicator but once confirmed its power can determine the course of the market. It managed to pierced through 40value line for the first time in 6 years.
Also we can make a note that for the first time since 2013, gold             is defended above WMA100 and WMA500, and is challenging the WMA 200.

In my view, it is likely that June rate-hike is definitely off the table and what remains is is the rate-hike timing in July. In lights of recent events (World's back growth forecast downgrade, Various countries' central banks QE             programs, Stock market pullbacks as reaction towards global eco             uncertainties, and Brexit), hence it is strategically safe to prematurely guess that july is likely to be off, which might send gold             further up but not too much as the market in the past 3 weeks since bad NFP data has tried to price in the No-June-Rate-hike event. If this happens, what remains is Brexit event which will definitely be a coin-toss event, or some might say a "black-swan-effect' event. (see http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/blackswan.asp). Unless of course the polls which have gained momentum for "leave" can switch side to "remain". Until then, the increasing likelihood of Brexit happening will continue to stir global market fear and force them into safe-haven assets for a moment.




5 months ago
Comment: Good lesson here:
Global Risk Map

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