XAUUSD Gold Forecast...Short Covering or more?

XAUUSD Gold Forecast And Technical Analysis Nov 19 - 23

Gold prices bounced off critical support to end the week in positive territory.

We do not expect too much excitement in the near-term as markets will see a shortened trading week as U.S investors celebrate Thanksgiving.

Which fundamentals pushed Gold prices higher last week? 

* Concerns started to mount about the health of the global economy. The growing threat of weaker global growth is causing some market participants to pare back their equity investments in search for safe-haven assets like gold.
* FED Chairman Powell said that although the U.S. economy remains healthy, he sees potential risks ahead. Some market players believe that the weaker growth expectations will be impacting the U.S. dollar and interest rate expectations US Bonds 10 Years Yield chart gives us a light. We see a dramatic drop in the 10Y Yields.
    Gold and Japanese Yen was bullish as Safe Haven assets last week.


*Another factor was the US- China trade war. Market psychology is shifting toward an expectation that the U.S.-China trade dispute eventually will be resolved. A resolution should help gold since the standoff previously boosted the U.S. dollar and weighed down gold as a result.
*Some short covering and bargain hunting may be occurring
*The growing tension in the U.S., as well as the increasingly uncertain future of so-called Brexit deal and potential disruption to the EU support gold.

However; 

* No significant risk for global growth in the near future.We don’t see growth threats materializing until the second half of 2019, which should provide some support for gold and other precious metals
* FED is still Hawkish and a rate hike's set in December. Gold market will remain bearish until FED changes its tune and is no longer hawkish.
* The market players will be focusing on U.S. economic data next week as that could determine the Gold's next move.Any further evidence of slowing in the U.S. economy may push the gold prices higher.

Technically Speaking and Conclusion: 

*XAUUSD is trading on the lower Bollinger Band. Gold needs to make daily closings above 1226 $ to test 1244 key resistance.
**A firm breakout of 1244 can be the signal of a trend reversal. But, the key trend reversal level is 1265 $. And the current fundamentals do not support Gold's trend reversal. The sellers will be waiting for to send the Gold prices lower.
***Gold does not like December. - And if there's a rate hike... nightmare !!! - 
***The price is likely to break below 1150 $ before the year end.