I told you a week ago there is a big chance this is going to be a second Brexit event...
I got a lot of attack again but at the end of the day it was a nice long trade , and it is still a nice long trade.
I'm hunting for big gains. I'm not interested in the short term 5-10$ gains in gold. This vehicle is so volatile that more often than not you lose if you try to catch the small movements. All those who started to short gold yesterday or the day before yesterday were in a 20-25$ profit before the US election. If they went to bed without closing it they will have to face with a monster rally and a reseted account....
1. My COT analysis worked well. The COT was bullish not bearish as a few beginner trader thought.
2.The blue descending triangle's target price at 1241 was completed, so all the traders who went short at 1305$ was just lucky because trading the back test of the breakdown level after price had completed the target price counted from the pattern not working in most of the cases.
3. We tested back and broke marginally below the 200 SMA again.
4. We broke above the bear market trendline from all time tops.
When gold is changing the direction after a DCL or a HCL the direction change is very fast and the bounce is huge.
This is the problem with the shorts at the beginning of a new intermediate cycle.
If you go short at the new IC you set your brain to the short trade and simply cannot adapt when the short trade is not working and you should switch to long . Unfortunately the human brain is working like that . A few traders were just stopping out and not watching this vehicle for a while. The other type of traders are forcing the short or worse jumping into revenge short and reseting the account. This is not going to fall for a while and the sub 1240$ prices are off of the table.
The long traders have now the chance to ride this bull till the end of this rally. This rally has at least 100 and maybe 200$ from here. Many are asking the TP. I cant tell you. It can be 1450, 1500 or 1550. We will see how price is moving now you don't need to set any take profit.
I would like to say that the hardest part is behind us, but unfortunately that's no true. The hardest part is coming now in our life: we have to ride the bull and watch how our account is growing and growing and we must not slaughter the gains till the end of the cycle.
As of today we broke above the blue triangle's upper trendline I can guarantee that a higher high (above 1375$) is coming soon.
I got a lot of attack again but at the end of the day it was a nice long trade , and it is still a nice long trade.
I'm hunting for big gains. I'm not interested in the short term 5-10$ gains in gold. This vehicle is so volatile that more often than not you lose if you try to catch the small movements. All those who started to short gold yesterday or the day before yesterday were in a 20-25$ profit before the US election. If they went to bed without closing it they will have to face with a monster rally and a reseted account....
1. My COT analysis worked well. The COT was bullish not bearish as a few beginner trader thought.
2.The blue descending triangle's target price at 1241 was completed, so all the traders who went short at 1305$ was just lucky because trading the back test of the breakdown level after price had completed the target price counted from the pattern not working in most of the cases.
3. We tested back and broke marginally below the 200 SMA again.
4. We broke above the bear market trendline from all time tops.
When gold is changing the direction after a DCL or a HCL the direction change is very fast and the bounce is huge.
This is the problem with the shorts at the beginning of a new intermediate cycle.
If you go short at the new IC you set your brain to the short trade and simply cannot adapt when the short trade is not working and you should switch to long . Unfortunately the human brain is working like that . A few traders were just stopping out and not watching this vehicle for a while. The other type of traders are forcing the short or worse jumping into revenge short and reseting the account. This is not going to fall for a while and the sub 1240$ prices are off of the table.
The long traders have now the chance to ride this bull till the end of this rally. This rally has at least 100 and maybe 200$ from here. Many are asking the TP. I cant tell you. It can be 1450, 1500 or 1550. We will see how price is moving now you don't need to set any take profit.
I would like to say that the hardest part is behind us, but unfortunately that's no true. The hardest part is coming now in our life: we have to ride the bull and watch how our account is growing and growing and we must not slaughter the gains till the end of the cycle.
As of today we broke above the blue triangle's upper trendline I can guarantee that a higher high (above 1375$) is coming soon.
Comment:
As we took out the lows at 1240 - which supposed to be an ICL - I've started to hedge my gold position at 1237-1240$. We entered into the panic selling.
The 1240 was only a DCL with all signs of an ICL. We are going to have the final ICL in the following 2 weeks.
The 1240 was only a DCL with all signs of an ICL. We are going to have the final ICL in the following 2 weeks.
Comment:
Just a few thoughts.
I started to long gold in the triangle when it broke down during a few thousand contract dump in a night (Oct.04.). (1.)
We broke down and I was long from the exact bottom in 7 ideas. (2.) I also opened long positions there. When we broke the resistance at 1275$ I posted 2 follow through ideas for the rally of the breakout. (3.) So from the 1245 level we rallied 90 $ to 1337 on the election night. ( It was not posted on the next day as the pictures shows below...)I posted one more follow through idea on the election night at 1316$. All the circumstances looked like the Brexit event.
But this idea was not a new long idea. It was a follow through for the previous longs, what I started to hedge in real time at 1237-38$ which I also posted. It was the mental stop.
Actually we rallied 90$ with not realizing the profits.
Somehow I need to update these posts as we have so much comments that it's really hard to go through these. So based on a long/short idea later I post new long/short ideas which is not a new long entry it's just an update with a new picture.
I started to long gold in the triangle when it broke down during a few thousand contract dump in a night (Oct.04.). (1.)
We broke down and I was long from the exact bottom in 7 ideas. (2.) I also opened long positions there. When we broke the resistance at 1275$ I posted 2 follow through ideas for the rally of the breakout. (3.) So from the 1245 level we rallied 90 $ to 1337 on the election night. ( It was not posted on the next day as the pictures shows below...)I posted one more follow through idea on the election night at 1316$. All the circumstances looked like the Brexit event.
But this idea was not a new long idea. It was a follow through for the previous longs, what I started to hedge in real time at 1237-38$ which I also posted. It was the mental stop.
Actually we rallied 90$ with not realizing the profits.
Somehow I need to update these posts as we have so much comments that it's really hard to go through these. So based on a long/short idea later I post new long/short ideas which is not a new long entry it's just an update with a new picture.
Comment:
Comment:
As I can set only a long/short/neutral idea, in the future at the bottom of the post I always set the idea as:
NEW LONG/SHORT ENTRY ( this is the point where I enter or add to the position)
SHORT/LONG UPDATE (this is just an update on a previous idea but I dont suggest to enter or add to the position)
NEW LONG/SHORT ENTRY ( this is the point where I enter or add to the position)
SHORT/LONG UPDATE (this is just an update on a previous idea but I dont suggest to enter or add to the position)
Comment:
I've started to close slowly my hedges (25-30%) today at 1206-1208$.
I think we are getting close to the bottom.
I don't rule out a breakdown below 1200$ early next week but we are very close to the end of the decline.
I think we are getting close to the bottom.
I don't rule out a breakdown below 1200$ early next week but we are very close to the end of the decline.
Had to go back with the goldtrain.
Banks will never lose?! Someone always saving them...