FX:XAUUSD   Gold / U.S. Dollar
3638 43 69
The Commitment of Traders report ( COT ) is published at the close of every Friday's trade and it always shows the Tuesday COT data.
The formula for Blees rating uses the Commercial Traders net contract holdings at the date of the current COT report.
We inserted the Blees rating into the daily chart .

The last Blees rating numbers (0) are showing that commercials were more heavily short in gold             this week Tuesday than last week Tuesday. Commercial short position has been increased again: it's nearly 55.000 more than last Tuesday ( 356.632 ---} 411.358 ). Last week the net commercial short position increased by 30.000 because the long commercial contracts dropped by 20.000. This week the commercial long contracts almost the same as last week, only the short commercial positions increased . So all the commercials who closed their longs last week opened almost a triple amount of short positions what they 've closed last week...
The Blees were 0 Tuesday . The blees rating at 0 is showing to the lower prices. Retail and the large specs are in war now with commercials. Commercials are hedging production and they will continue to push down price till it tags the 200 EMA or 200 SMA .

We had a test on Thursday what would happen with a brexit poll postpone. You could taste the power of 411.00 commercial short . How would a "UK stays in EU" candle look like??? 80$ red candle maybe?

I've been reading on many website that commercial will have a short squeeze, the bearish pin bar on Thursday is meaningless etc. Guys, commercials are not stupid. They will not have a short squeeze after they've increased their shorts by 60.000...

And one more thing regarding Brexit. Do you really think the average Englishmen will make a decision in such an important question to stay or leave the EU ??? Come on. The EU was the most important step of Europe in the last 100 years. These nations were in war 60 years ago. This union is the only chance for the Old Continent to stay in the game against USA, China etc. Do you really think they will let it fall into pieces??? If they didn't let Greece to leave they will not let UK to leave. This is just a summer show. Enjoy. Will not last for too long.

The blees rating at 0 means to me that gold             is not ready for the next intermediate rally. Even if we don't have the panic selling at least we are going to go down to near 1200 one more time in the following 2 weeks.

Gold_COT reports source:

Formula for counting the blees number:
Commercial shorts-commercial longs= X
X-last 2 years minimum X number=Y
Last 2 years maximum X- Last 2 years minimum X =Z
Blees= Y/Z*100
Comment: Gap down open. Whole Friday candle was erased immediately.
Comment: 1278 will be broken down tonight.
Comment: Does anyone see exact volume? How many contracts were dumped?

Fundamental question: could you give a couple examples of who is considered "commercial" and who is considered "retail and large specs"?

Yes ... i dont think UK would leave europe towards USA
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Thank you again for your thoughts, analysis and willingness to post.
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I think you are probably right but I also think we run up in the uncertainty of it.
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The way you share your idea is way more detailed and informative than anyone else in this website. I really appreciate your effort. You bring a reason and explain to us which we really need. Keep up the good work buddy !!
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Couldn't agree more. Reading and learning your analysis is my daily homework. Keep up the good work CW!!
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Oh, why UK stay in EU would push down the price of AXUUSD? Could anyone help explain?
Because EUrmagedon will be canceled as well as markets chaos. Don't think that gold will move in opposite direction with USD. They may go down together as they were going up together. Also, you had your "preview" on Thursday.
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As always, thanks for your updates. It's factual, informs us of what is happening and includes your own perspective on possible outcomes. Gold like other stocks and commodities does not move in straight lines up or down. Nor does it stay there as if a stock lost their star CEO or marketshare. There are cycles within cycles, patterns within other patterns and opportunities for those who use basic trade protection techniques (stops, limits and patience) and take advantage of it's movements up and down. I love the input of so many here on TradingView (both bull and bear) and use this along with my plan to learn and earn. Thanks again Arpi for sharing and helping us gain better insight for our own trading plans!
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what to do now?
still short
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Holy crap, this can go up with such a down for a few moments, but it changes situation. 1200 is going to be true once all losers stack up with their gold at 1280-1300. I dont expected this, I thought itbcan go up to 1300 and then down.
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I agree. I have also been saying for weeks that Brexit will not happen. It just doesn't make sense for them to get out of EU. If they exit, it will be an economic disaster that could send them into a recession. Gold price will fall as you have been predicting for some time now. I am looking to get back in at 1200 watching how low it goes.
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chasingziyou rohithisgood
1200? why wait until it is so low?
rohithisgood chasingziyou
After brexit fails on Thursday which I know it will, my initial thought was to buy gold stocks again immediately. I am predicting that gold would drop to 1240 to 1200 if Britain remains in EU. We have to carefully watch the gold price and see if it continues to drop Monday to Thursday which tells us how low it could drop on Thursday.

All is not over for Gold though, as Yellen will start her hawkish speeches soon after Brexit fails. With brexit worries gone and with the elections coming the feds have to raise interest rates on July (regardless of what the polls say about chances currently). If they don't raise in July they can't raise until after the elections and I highly doubt them raising interest rates within a month after the new president is elected who could even be Trump. So i have my bet that July will see an interest hike. The only thing that could stop it is the job data which definitely can't be worse than the previous data. The market will have much higher number of new jobs to offset the unusually low new jobs from the previous month.
Hi Arpi, thank you for the detailed analysis. Quick question though. If COT report shows net short positions from Tuesday, is it possible that the $35 drop in gold prices that we saw on Thursday was commercials winning battle against the retails? We still do not have the data from Friday. Is there a possibility that commercials adjusted their positions on Friday in lieu of Brexit?

Once again, I (we) really appreciate the time and effort you put into these charts. Thank You!
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ja.piotr.bor sandhusukhjit
True battle will be , when retails will realize, that they wont win this, and will go to dumb all...
Commercial have strong arms to do it...
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4'200'000 (?)
still short or do we wait?
Hope the gap will be filled 1st?
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3K+ contracts dumbed at open lol.
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Thanks Arpi for your analysis! If this down move at least stay as of now until NYSE opening. Miners stocks will paint island reversal with probably no attempt to close gap. I think this move will be big.
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Very low liquidity, high spreads, I have sl at breakeven and have very called a loss with 1$ loss lol.
Entered once again with no sl :O
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Have another sell at 1290.22, but this isn't going nice again...
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Gold's COT Longs are at all time highs. Money managers all piled in there with large speculators. If a Brexit occurs, then they will be justified. If no Brexit occurs, then they will all be clamoring out like a herd of trapped elephants, re-positioning their portfolios. Brokers may not honor your orders and accounts will be wiped out if there is a brexit. So, it is best for me not to trade at all.
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traderzaius Rocketman
I think Gold will rally brexit or no brexit.
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Rocketman PRO traderzaius
Technically, we are still in an uptrend, so I cannot disagree with that.
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We haven't broke downtrend line from 2011 yet, so we may be still in bear market and just had a correction to that line, which we haven't touched yet. It is around $1350. Thus, the whole 2016 move can be considered as correction in bear market with all consequences, like retesting lows at around $1000 before real jump up. Silver should be at around $19-20 by now if we are in real bull market. So if Brexit vote is "No Leave" then it will be a big drop. I believe large speculators already off loaded miners stocks last week. They wouldn't do that for a $50 correction. Miners can do a decent leaving with prices above $1200. We are going at least to $1200. I personally think below $1100 if we break $1200 - it would be double top's target.
Onions Rocketman
I had to scroll down this far to see someone mention that... But your post about net longs at ATH is damn right though.
xukaitan888 Rocketman
way safe to keep cash all the time.
what seller dumps that many contracts in a low liquidity time space
in such a short period of time ? the answer is one that wants a lower price and is desperate for it.
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Onions danot
*cough* FED *cough* :3 lool
I love the bearish sentiment here. The only thing that worries me slightly is ZarNegar has become bullish on gold (for this week)
Great observation for COT data. That was a true story, Thumb up to you! Last Thursday volume was huge, so I loaded up some shorts step by step last Friday. Obviously, 4 hours chart last Friday was a bearish flag.
Nice that I shorted, but the target was too early triggered, when I sleep, now waiting for another entry, at 1286-88.
DX is nicely f.... $ is going now to some serious correction, this will help gold for a while
It is not who votes, but rather who counts, counts!!!!!!!!
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losch haronbg
I think nobody counts, they are just showing the results they need! And the question here is if they need a brexit or not! I think this will be a convinient trigger for the stock market crash which is already innevitable and which the've created at first place! I hope I'm wrong!
Don't wait for a market crash before US elections....
This year will be year of higher highs for sure.
danot chartwatchers
I don't see higher highs but they may keep it above water even if they (fed) have to buy every share offered.
losch chartwatchers
I'll trade brexit with a very small accont, because SL will not work! I'm looking for a tripple bottom at 1050 or even lower. I think the commercials cannot unload the most of the 400k+ just for 100$ move.
oilyprata chartwatchers
Thanks Apri :)
oilyprata oilyprata
The man has a proven track record, he knows what he is talking about guys
Great work Apri, Thanks for your in depth knowledge you share! It makes such a difference when the knowledge of technical and influences of events are brought together!!!
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